There aren't many "sure things" when it comes to closers in fantasy baseball, but if there were, certainly Brewers RHP Devin Williams and Blue Jays RHP Jordan Romano would both qualify. Well, they would have qualified until recently. Unfortunately, they do not feel like sure things today.
Williams finished last season at No. 2 among all relief pitchers in ESPN fantasy points, just a bit behind Orioles RHP Felix Bautista, who is out for the season after Tommy John surgery. Williams, with a 1.89 career ERA and a 39% strikeout rate, has two stress fractures in his back and the most optimistic reports place his return in June, at best.
Romano was the No. 10 closer in fantasy points in 2023, his second consecutive campaign with 36 saves, and since most people expect the Blue Jays to contend for the AL East again, we figured Romano would thrive again. Perhaps he will, but Romano has elbow inflammation and will start this season on the IL, with his return date undetermined, but hopefully soon.
The quartet of Giants RHP Camilo Doval, Astros LHP Josh Hader, Mets RHP Edwin Diaz and Guardians RHP Emmanuel Clase remain as the top tier of closers in ESPN average live drafts, each going among the top 60, far ahead of others. Are they sure things now? Diaz missed the 2023 season. Clase blew 12 saves and lost nine games. Perhaps we should cease describing any relief pitchers as sure things.
What is a sure thing, though, is that the rest of the regular season starts this week, so let us go team-by-team with one analyst's thoughts on each bullpen. Enjoy.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Paul Sewald starts the season on the IL due to an oblique strain, but we should see him in April. Kevin Ginkel handles closing duties while he is out, but there should be little controversy here, even if Ginkel thrives. Sewald was acquired from Seattle last year to close. He should save 25 wins this year, at least.
Atlanta Braves: Raisel Iglesias has saved more than 30 games four times, doing so for each of his three big-league franchises. The Braves will win many games, so, again, if healthy, this should be a top-10 closer.
Baltimore Orioles: Craig Kimbrel used to be one of the safest closers around, and his 400-plus saves should land him in the Hall of Fame someday. Still, based on recent seasons, his performance in 2024 is problematic. Yennier Cano posted 31 holds last season, and those holds matter in points leagues. He may be a better value pick than Kimbrel, and he should eclipse some combination of 30 holds/saves again.
Boston Red Sox: Kenley Jansen boasts 420 career saves, and like Kimbrel, few would refer to him as a "sure thing." Jansen barely pitched in spring training due to back/lat issues, but the team says he is ready this week. Do not assume a high innings total, 30 saves or a low ERA. Veteran Chris Martin, dealing with a groin injury, should be next in line.
Chicago Cubs: Adbert Alzolay saved 22 wins a season ago, but new manager Craig Counsell could easily make the ninth inning a committee, with Hector Neris, Julian Merryweather and others in play. Alzolay is a later-round pick in ESPN leagues for this reason.
Chicago White Sox: Well, this is awkward. Nobody expected to make the White Sox bullpen is being drafted in more than 1% of ESPN standard leagues. Former starter Michael Kopech could be the closer, but it could also be older veterans John Brebbia and Steven Wilson, or, when healthy, Prelander Berroa. Skip this bullpen on draft day. The team lost 101 games last season, and it may do so again. In deep leagues, take the chance on Kopech.
Cincinnati Reds: Alexis Diaz saved 37 games last season, though he struggled near the end. He is the No. 5 relief pitcher in ESPN ADP and the closing job is fully his.
Cleveland Guardians: Emmanuel Clase was the top closer in ESPN ADP one season ago and, while he did lead the league with 44 saves, he was hardly dominant. The Guardians expect him to bounce back. If he stumbles, Scott Barlow lurks.
Colorado Rockies: Justin Lawrence saved 11 games last season and he figures to open with the closer role this year, but this is a bad team and pitching at Coors Field is often a nightmare. Lawrence and presumed setup man Tyler Kinley are going undrafted in most leagues.
Detroit Tigers: Alex Lange saved 26 games last season, though he was one of only two relief pitchers to issue at least 40 walks (Daniel Bard being the other). Setup option Jason Foley lurks, but -- deep league alert! -- if journeyman Shelby Miller performs as he did for last season's Dodgers, he may usurp the role.
Houston Astros: Josh Hader has been rather inconsistent in recent seasons, but only Doval is going ahead of him in points drafts. Former closer Ryan Pressly and the terrific Bryan Abreu should pile on the holds for a good team.
Kansas City Royals: Will Smith boasts 113 career saves, including 22 for last season's champion Rangers, while James McArthur saved four games in his 2023 rookie campaign. McArthur and former Rays closer Nick Anderson are enticing, but Smith is likely in play for saves at least early on. No Royals reliever is rostered in more than 10% of ESPN standard leagues for a reason.
Los Angeles Angels: Carlos Estevez sputtered his way to 31 saves, but free agent Robert Stephenson got a three-year contract for loads of money. He dominated for last season's Rays. Of course, Stephenson has shoulder soreness and figures to miss the first few weeks, at least. Most believe Stephenson will take the closer role, making Estevez -- the healthy one -- a draft day sleeper.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Evan Phillips had a tremendous 2023 season with his 2.05 ERA, but he saved only 24 wins, scaring some fantasy managers off. Phillips would have saved more wins, but he gets summoned in the seventh/eighth innings at times. That may change. Expect more than 30 saves and a top-10 closer performance.
Miami Marlins: Tanner Scott did not start last season as closer, but he finally controlled the walks and ended up with 12 saves, 24 holds and 104 strikeouts, the latter mark ranking third among relievers. A healthy Scott -- we can say this for myriad pitchers -- should sail past 25 saves this season.
Milwaukee Brewers: Joel Payamps is the one being chosen in ESPN ADP, finally ahead of Devin Williams, but Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill could be in line for saves, too. It is tough to wait three months for Williams in shallow leagues, so don't spend a draft pick in standard formats. Payamps, Uribe or Megill could earn saves this week and keep the role for a long time. Watch who saves the first one.
Minnesota Twins: Jhoan Duran figures to miss the first weeks of April due to an oblique strain, though he remains among the first 10 relievers in ADP. Griffin Jax should handle closing duties while Duran is out. Add Jax for April, stash Duran for the other five months.
New York Mets: Edwin Diaz missed the 2023 season because of a knee injury that he suffered in joyous celebration -- nothing related to his arm. Expect the No. 3 closer in ESPN ADP to sail past 25 saves for the sixth time. Adam Ottavino returns to being the primary setup man.
New York Yankees: Clay Holmes has been the primary closer here for two seasons, though he did not reach 25 saves in either one of them. Perhaps he does so this year. There is no obvious fill-in if Holmes struggles or gets hurt.
Oakland Athletics: Mason Miller is the intriguing choice everyone talks about, and he is rostered in 16% of ESPN standard leagues, but manager Mark Kotsay may share the closing role in April. Undrafted Dany Jimenez and Lucas Erceg could easily save games, too, but not many. This is a 100-loss team again.
Philadelphia Phillies: Jose Alvarado certainly boasts the skills to close, and there are other lefties in this bullpen to help set up, so nothing is stopping him. Jeff Hoffman and rookie Orion Kerkering (currently on the IL) should earn saves as well, but Alvarado is the one going aggressively in ESPN ADP.
Pittsburgh Pirates: David Bednar comes off a wonderful 2023 season with 39 saves, and newcomer Aroldis Chapman should set him up until he gets traded in July. Well, at least that is the plan. Bednar could be dealt, too.
San Diego Padres: Robert Suarez got the call for a four-out save in the team's opening series in Korea, a good sign he is the top reliever. Newcomers Yuki Matsui (Japan) and Woo Suk Go (Korea) earned much notice by signing as free agents, but Suarez seems under-rostered (33.7%) in ESPN leagues.
San Francisco Giants: Camilo Doval is great. He is perhaps the only "sure thing" as far as closers go as the 2024 season begins.
Seattle Mariners: Andres Munoz is supposed to be a great closer, and perhaps this is the year he realizes his mighty potential and aggressive ADP. Durability is not a strength, though, and top setup men Matt Brash and Gregory Santos are already both on the IL. Be careful here.
St. Louis Cardinals: Ryan Helsley throws 100 mph, but like Munoz, he has trouble avoiding injury. The statistical upside, though, is immense. The Cardinals added Andrew Kittredge to JoJo Romero and Giovanny Gallegos in case other options are needed.
Tampa Bay Rays: Pete Fairbanks saved 25 games last season, but in continuing the unfortunate theme, it is tough to count on a pitcher who has yet to reach 50 innings in any of his five MLB seasons. Jason Adam is really, really good himself, and could be a top-10 closer if given an opportunity. Adam should be a popular fantasy setup man.
Texas Rangers: Jose Leclerc always seems to earn some saves, but he hasn't reached 15 of them in any season. Perhaps this is the year. If not, since his performance can be inconsistent, trusted David Robertson looms. The undrafted Robertson may be the better fantasy value.
Toronto Blue Jays: Yimi Garcia has modest closing experience, so he figures to save games while Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson mend from arm woes. The hope is that Romano is back by mid-April. Hope is a dangerous thing.
Washington Nationals: Kyle Finnegan has tepid draft-day interest, since he is rostered in 26.9% of ESPN standard leagues. Many believe Hunter Harvey (10% rostered) pushes him out of the closer role soon. It is a bit like the Angels, in that respect. It also makes Finnegan, who saved 28 games in 2023 despite a bloated ERA and WHIP, a bit underrated.