This is the week when perception and reality finally split. The last playoff rankings before championship weekend will show us which teams the committee actually trusts, and which ones only look alive because the standings haven't caught up yet.
Records will mislead you, résumés will confuse you, and the market will contradict both. Several teams have paths, others don't, and a few sit in the gray zone where the odds make no sense.
I break down the biggest hinge points on the board, the blind spots, the bias patterns and the teams still fooling on paper.
Texas is alive ... but only in headlines
No current odds to make the CFP
The fact that Texas isn't listed on the board is the market saying, "We don't need to price this because the path is effectively dead." The win over undefeated Texas A&M was a statement, but it doesn't erase the full résumé. Texas has three losses, including a damaging one to 3-9 Florida and a noncompetitive showing against Georgia. Even the rivalry win over Oklahoma came with context, as OU's quarterback was coming off a throwing hand injury, limiting what the victory really told us.
The committee won't reward a three-loss nonchampion without total chaos ahead of them, and changing the standard now would undermine every precedent they've set. Texas is a good team with one great win -- not a playoff résumé. The Horns belong in the conversation but not in the bracket.
BYU's bubble reality is a sharp one
To make CFP: Yes +380, No -550
BYU isn't a bubble team because their résumé sits on the edge and its entire playoff existence hinges on winning a game they're not expected to win. The market has them as a 12.5-point underdog to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game, the clearest indicator that the Cougars' path is narrow, difficult and entirely binary. Their playoff odds mirror that. Books are pricing BYU as a team with a viable door, but one that requires pulling off a significant upset. Beat Tech, and BYU finishes as a 12-1 Big 12 champ. Lose, and it evaporates from contention with only a single top-25 win. The Cougars are a bubble team because they're good enough to be one win away, but that one win is against a favorite the committee already trusts.
Miami's rank versus Notre Dame exposes the real problem
To make CFP: Yes +800, No -1400
Miami is the perfect case study for a team that looks alive on paper but has no pulse when the committee applies real scrutiny. Yes, the Canes beat Notre Dame head-to-head, but that only matters when both teams are contending for the same seat at the table. Miami's absence from the ACC championship removes its only viable path, and the argument for head-to-head collapses the moment you factor in loss quality.
Miami's two losses, to Louisville and SMU, both unranked at the time, are résumé failures. The committee treats those as reliability red flags. Notre Dame's losses aren't in the same category. The Irish lost to Miami by three points and to Texas A&M by one. Those are strength-approved setbacks, not collapses. The difference is simple: Notre Dame projects stability and high-end competition. Miami projects volatility. When comparing two-loss teams, that distinction decides everything. It's resume triage, and Miami is the one left for dead.
Notre Dame's odds show the committee's bias problem
To make CFP: Yes -400, No +275
The books believe the committee will elevate Notre Dame if chaos hits, even though the Irish have no title game and no remaining leverage. That's what makes its odds weird. Notre Dame can't control anything from here, but the Irish will be given credit for schedule, margin and opponent quality at a level that Miami, BYU or any ACC fringe team won't get. Their résumé has no collapses, a one-point loss to No. 3 Aggies, and steady dominance after that. I'll say that Notre Dame will be ranked somewhere between No. 8 and No. 10 after Tuesday's rankings. The Irish's only hope is multiple conference favorites losing -- possible, but unlikely -- which means they finish outside the bracket.
James Madison's record is real, the résumé is not
To make CFP: Yes +135, No -175
An 11-1 season grabs attention, but 11-1 with zero ranked wins ends the conversation. The Dukes' only loss is a respectable one, a Friday night road slip at Louisville, but the wins don't stack up to anything that moves the playoff needle. Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Old Dominion, App State and Texas State are solid FBS opponents but not résumé builders.
And that's the hard ceiling for JMU; dominating inferior teams doesn't compensate for the absence of top-25 teams. The committee punishes empty schedules because it has to compare you to teams who took (and survived) heavyweight swings. Even if JMU beats Troy in the Sun Belt title game, it maxes out as the G5 auto bid. Its odds reflect it. JMU is boxed into one lane: win the Sun Belt.
Betting consideration: Stop betting résumés; bet committee behavior
The market reacts to records, but the committee reacts to trust. It rewards stability, punishes volatility and elevates brands that have earned the "benefit of the doubt." That's why Notre Dame is Yes -400 and BYU is Yes +380 despite an 11-1 record and a conference championship shot. That's why Miami beating Notre Dame means nothing and why Texas is dead. The edge is identifying who the committee will protect if chaos hits and those who will never elevate.
The committee tells you what matters: strength of opponent, loss quality, stability, brand trust, game control and scars from scheduling. If you're betting futures, think less football and more psychology, precedent and the pecking order the committee has made clear all season.
As it stands, there's no value on any futures right now because every price is already shaped by the only thing that matters this week: win-and-in paths or brand protection. You would be betting outcomes the market has fully priced, with no leverage left. Anything you wager now is paying a premium for information everyone already knows.