Fantasy baseball is all about the numbers and the value, and even in ESPN's shallower, standard leagues, these factors matter. Sure, with only 16 active roster spots (nine hitters, seven pitchers, three bench), there is no shortage of excellent free agents available at all times -- and this makes it more inviting to perhaps covet a riskier early pick (such as Aaron Judge, Tyler Glasnow), a typically brittle, fading superstar (Mike Trout, Chris Sale) or already injured pitcher (Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, myriad more).
Then again, we know many of you do participate in deeper fantasy formats (my hand is raised here!), so we figured this version of the annual "Do Draft" column should go a bit deeper. Click here for the much-understood "Do Not Draft" entry and avoid those players at their current draft/auction values. For these players below -- and we go position-by-position for this one -- try to get them if you can, because the value is right.
First base
Underrated Diamondbacks veteran Christian Walker has 69 home runs and 197 RBIs over the past two seasons, ranking eighth and 10th overall in that span, yet he remains available in the 10th round of ESPN ADP. There is prime value there. ... I also continue to gravitate toward Cardinals veteran Paul Goldschmidt. No, he is not too old to recapture his pre-2023 form and, he was not that bad last season. ... By the way, does anyone realize young Tiger Spencer Torkelson hit 31 home runs last season?
Do not pass up Dodger Freddie Freeman thinking there is amazing depth at the position, but I do see several late-round picks I would roster at either corner infield or DH, starting with new Blue Jay Justin Turner. Yeah, he is 39, but he was a top-40 points-league hitter last season, and he is hitting cleanup this year. ... I clearly like new Brewer Rhys Hoskins and old Yankee Anthony Rizzo more than most, too. When healthy, these 30-somethings offer safe, reliable power. They appear to be healthy today.
Second base
Fantasy managers may see the 14 homers and 14 steals for apparent Athletics afterthought Zack Gelof (somehow not going in more than 70% of drafts) and say they are nothing special, but he did that in a mere 69 games/300 PA. This is a potential 25/25 option. ... Only seven players hit more home runs and stole more bases than the Phillies' Bryson Stott. He will only keep improving, and he could be top-100 soon. ... Cardinals slugger Nolan Gorman is a 35-HR option on the way.
Later on, I think the Phillies will play Whit Merrifield in left field quite a bit, and he should not need more than 400 PA to reach double-digit home runs and 25 steals. ... The Rockies' Ryan McMahon may never become a star, but this makes four consecutive full seasons with durability and 20-plus home runs. ... I cannot believe the Padres' Jake Cronenworth will be that underwhelming again. ... Do not avoid Orioles youngster Jordan Westburg in deeper formats because you are worried about playing time. Draft the skills. It tends to work out for the deserving players.
Third base
Back for more Cardinals, apparently, because Nolan Arenado hit "only" 26 home runs and now people think he is done. He is not. Expect a return to 30/100, making his eighth-round ADP quite favorable. ... I don't like to assume a young player (under 25) with an injury history is necessarily brittle. The Twins' Royce Lewis is hitting 30 home runs this season, and he should be in the top 100. ... The Rangers' Josh Jung and Marlins' Jake Burger are also reaching 30 home runs in 2024, and you can acquire them both post-draft in most leagues. Sign me up!
Later on, the Rays have already sent top prospect Junior Caminero to Triple-A for more seasoning, but he shouldn't be there for long. It is tough to invest with a three-man bench, but try. The bat is special. ... The Cubs intend to start former Dodger Michael Busch at first base. The fact that Matt Mervis struggled last season has no bearing on what Busch will achieve. In fact, it has lowered expectations, which is silly. ... The Royals' Maikel Garcia should be a quality source of stolen bases, for those in roto formats, and doesn't overlooked Giant Wilmer Flores always somehow end up around 20 home runs?
Shortstop
It was a tale of two vastly different seasons for Phillies newcomer Trea Turner, but it is hardly uncommon for a high-priced free agent to initially struggle under high expectations for a new club. Buy the track record. This may be a top-10 fantasy option, even in points formats. ... I think the Orioles' Gunnar Henderson has a top-10 future as well when he lifts his batting average to .275 and hits for even more power. Round 5 seems like a bargain. His teammate Jackson Holliday is a pending fantasy star as well, and he already approaches my top 100.
Another Jackson, precocious Padre Jackson Merrill, has already made the club as the starting center fielder. Merrill's ADP and roster percentage (a startling 4.1%) hardly match this recent revelation, and he has 20-HR, 20-SB upside right away. Adding outfield eligibility doesn't hurt. ... For non-ESPN formats, new Red Sox 2B Vaughn Grissom also boasts 20/20 skills, even if he misses some or most of April. ... Young Cardinal (yep, another Cardinal) Masyn Winn is starting and is capable of 25 steals this season.
Outfield
You should know all the big names, and it is not a bad idea to secure an outfield anchor (like at starting pitcher), even if you need only three of them. However, overlooked National Lane Thomas finished as a top-20 points-league outfielder last season, and he is out there in Round 18 this season. I am definitely investing in this gem. ... The same goes for the Rockies' Nolan Jones, going in Round 13. He went 20/20 as a rookie, in only 106 games! ... The Rays' Josh Lowe went 20/32 with only 501 PA. An early IL stint does not make him worth ignoring. ... I see many undervalued outfielders here, including the Dodgers' James Outman, Tigers' Riley Greene and Astros' Chas McCormick.
Even later on, and going unchosen in most ESPN leagues, the Cubs intend to play Christopher Morel at third base. It may not work out defensively, but this 35-HR bat is playing someplace. ... Mitch Haniger, back with the Mariners, hit 39 home runs in 2021. If he can stay healthy, what a bargain. ... Tyler O'Neill, also not on the durable side, hit 34 home runs in 2021. He is with Boston, and now primed to bounce back. ... Nobody expects veteran Met Starling Marte to play in 140 games, but he stole 24 bases in barely half a 2023 season. ... The Royals are giving Nelson Velazquez regular time at DH, and 30 home runs are feasible. ... The Cardinals have to give rookie Victor Scott II the CF job at some point. This is Esteury Ruiz, only with actual batting skills.
Starting pitcher
Is everyone hurt? I have tried securing an anchor in most leagues (Luis Castillo, Logan Webb, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Framber Valdez), and hitting the 20-40 range of starters harder (Joe Ryan, Justin Steele, Merrill Kelly, Mitch Keller, Tanner Bibee, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober). In general, if you invest heavy in bats and guess the right starting pitchers, it works. Three Mariners starters (Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert) finished among the top 10 in MLB WHIP last season, and I see a repeat. Later on, I gravitate toward Mariners Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, too. Go Mariners, I guess!
Some of my favorite starters after the top 50 include Yankees RHP Marcus Stroman, Rays RHP Ryan Pepiot, Tigers RHP Kenta Maeda, Cubs LHP Shota Imanaga, Rangers RHP Jon Gray, Twins RHP Louie Varland, Diamondbacks RHP Brandon Pfaadt, Phillies LHPs Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez, Royals RHP Michael Wacha and Rays RHP Taj Bradley (yes, even with an IL stint). It tortures a fantasy manager when a top-10 starting pitcher gets hurt. Invest in bulk options later, perhaps one turns into Pablo Lopez, Zach Eflin or Tarik Skubal and, if not, move on stress-free.
I have little interest in securing very injured starters such as Cole, Max Scherzer, Kyle Bradish and others and "hoping" they return by midseason.
Relief pitcher
Fantasy managers should not bypass Dodgers RHP Evan Phillips just because he may not save 30 games. Draft the elite skills, hope for 25-plus saves. ... Diamondbacks RHP Paul Sewald has a track record and security. He should be nearer to the top-10 closers. ... When was the last full season in which Red Sox RHP Kenley Jansen did not approach 30 saves? More than a decade ago. He will approach 30 saves again. ... Rangers RHP Jose Leclerc has frustrated his organization (and all of us) for years, but he sure looked good winning that World Series last season. ... I think Carlos Estevez still leads the Angels in saves, RHP Kyle Finnegan does so for the Nationals and LHP Will Smith is the closer for the Royals.