New York Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole and Atlanta Braves RHP Spencer Strider may finish atop the season Player Rater among starting pitchers, but they were also among the first pitchers to go in ESPN average live drafts. Try finding Tampa Bay Rays RHP Zach Eflin and Chicago Cubs LHP Justin Steele in your league draft results. Chances are they were not picked at all, and since they are also among the top pitchers in fantasy scoring this season, not far from Cole, Strider and other desirable draft day options, they deserve top consideration for fantasy starting pitcher MVP this season.
Eflin was generally not regarded as a reliable, top-75 starting pitcher option in his seven seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, often struggling with knee problems and inconsistency on the mound. The Rays saw great possibility, though, and lavished him with a three-year contract this past offseason, the richest deal in franchise history. They have been rewarded with Eflin's career bests in all key categories, from wins to ERA to games started, and he should receive some AL Cy Young award votes.
Steele was a bit more popular in drafts, coming off a season in which he fashioned a 3.18 ERA over 24 starts, his second in the major leagues, although he won only four of his outings. This season, Steele won more than half his outings and tossed a scoreless inning in the All-Star game. He is among the leaders in wins, winning percentage, home run suppression and ERA, while striking out nearly a hitter per inning, and may win the NL Cy Young award. As with Eflin, he has been a top-10 fantasy starting pitcher with minimal investment.
Other starting pitcher fantasy MVPs
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres: If Steele or Strider does not win the NL Cy Young award, it may be Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young winner. Snell, a ninth-round pick in ESPN average live drafts after his outstanding second half of 2022, struggled in his first few outings this season, then was nearly unhittable for the final four-plus months, posting an ERA below 2.00 in that span. The league leader in walks registered 200 strikeouts for the second time in his career. When Snell is bad, it really hurts a fantasy team, but he was seldom bad in 2023.
Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles: As with Eflin and Steele, few considered Bradish in March drafts, but he is on his way to a top-20 finish among starting pitchers on the Player Rater. Bradish had a 4.90 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over 23 starts for the 2022 Orioles, but this season he turned to his off-speed pitches more -- notably his curveball -- to flummox hitters. It worked.
Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers: Eovaldi looked like one of the top contenders for the AL Cy Young award when a forearm strain got in the way in mid-July and sidelined him until September. Eovaldi, a rather unheralded free-agent signing compared to others in the Texas rotation, was 11-3 at that point with a 2.69 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Still, as with Milwaukee Brewers OF Christian Yelich on the hitting side, the months of statistical goodness outweigh a rough final stanza.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians: Cleveland RHPs Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill all went in ESPN ADP, to different levels of course, but few saw Bibee ending up as Cleveland's lone starting pitcher among the final top 50 starters. Bibee made 25 excellent starts with a sub-3.00 ERA, and he won 10 games. New York Mets RHP Kodai Senga is the only rookie starter -- and he is 30 years old -- to top Bibee on the Rater.
Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins: Garrett showed signs of fantasy relevance during his breakout 2022 season, and then he continued to improve this season. He went undrafted in most every ESPN league, as did Miami LHP teammate Jesus Luzardo, Chicago Cubs RP Marcus Stroman, Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Bobby Miller, Toronto Blue Jays LHP Yusei Kikuchi, Detroit Tigers LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, Atlanta Braves RHP Bryce Elder, Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Mitch Keller and San Diego Padres RHP Michael Wacha. Why do we draft so many starting pitchers early?
Starting pitcher fantasy LVPs
Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers: We could go in a few different directions here for least valuable, when considering draft day investment. After all, deGrom, a fifth-round pick in ESPN ADP (No. 42 overall and No. 14 among starters) made only six starts. After his first outing, deGrom pitched well, and he was done before May, leaving fantasy managers to move on. He didn't linger and allow many runs for six months. Still, it is six games. Not that I invested anywhere, but others could have used that fifth-round pick better. Seattle Mariners LHP Robbie Ray, the No. 24 SP in ADP, made one start. Boo.
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins: The defending NL Cy Young award winner went sixth among starting pitchers and in the second round overall, and he struggled for the first few months. While he pitched like a star over the final two months, the overall numbers are rather meager. Alcantara will not finish among the top 50 starters on the Rater. I would argue his overall numbers were not so bad that they made fantasy managers uncompetitive, but still, we expected greatness from a top 20 overall option.
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox: Now here is an example of someone who was both a high draft pick (11th among starters, fourth round overall) and he mostly tortured fantasy managers for all six months. Cease piled on the strikeouts, but his ERA more than doubled from 2022 and his WHIP destroyed rosters. He will not finish among the top 100 starting pitchers on the Rater. Cease gets this vote for fantasy LVP among starters.