It seemed inevitable when the Texas Rangers traded for veteran LHP Aroldis Chapman that manager Bruce Bochy would move him into the full-time closer role at some point and push out veteran LHP Will Smith. Chapman, who was mostly thriving (except for the walks) for the Kansas City Royals, came over for now-intriguing LHP Cole Ragans in late June. Smith was closing capably, and while Bochy claimed each "proven closer" would save games, it did not happen. Smith kept closing. That figures to change now.
Yes, both Chapman and Smith blew saves in Monday's painful road loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, but not in remotely the same way. Chapman was the preferred choice to enter in the ninth inning with the 1-0 lead and, well, Ketel Marte homered. OK, stuff happens, and it was the first home run (or earned run) Chapman allowed in four weeks. He finished the ninth and handled the 10th inning sans further incident. Chapman's season ERA is 2.28. He is second among relief pitchers in strikeout percentage for the season (to Orioles RHP Felix Bautista) and since the All-Star break (to Brewers RHP Devin Williams).
Smith entered in the 11th inning Monday with a 3-1 lead and, after two quick outs and a curious intentional walk to Marte, permitted a Geraldo Perdomo double to right field and a Tommy Pham gapper into right-center to plate the two runs to win it for the Diamondbacks. Smith has allowed runs in five of seven appearances (9 ER in 5⅓ IP), blowing two saves. He has struck out three of 28 hitters in that span. Chapman has three strikeouts in five of his past 12 outings alone. Change was inevitable, and it likely happened during Monday's game -- and was solidified afterward.
Give Smith credit for four-plus months of overachieving performance that made him a surprisingly valuable closer in fantasy, but much was ruined over the past two weeks. Chapman was always the superior pitcher once he arrived. Bochy likely played the loyalty card, especially since Smith closed and made his lone All-Star team for his 2019 San Francisco Giants. Smith's ERA since the start of 2020 is 3.87. Managers do not have to pick the best pitcher to close out games. Some don't. Now we wonder if Smith sees high-leverage work anytime soon. Anything is possible.
Saves aren't everything in points formats. They matter more in roto leagues, where the category is one of five. Run prevention and strikeouts are critical everywhere, but notably in points formats. Chapman, despite saving only four games this season (18 fewer than Smith), has nearly as many fantasy points. He has more over the past 30 days, and he should have more the next 30 days. Perhaps Bochy preferred Chapman in a setup role, but now he may have little choice.
Rangers RHP Josh Sborz has been mentioned more than once in this column this summer as a potential saves option, though that never materialized, and it is even less likely today. Sborz missed three July weeks with biceps tendinitis, and he has permitted home runs in his past two outings. Who is the right-hander that might inherit the eighth inning setting up Chapman? Veteran Chris Stratton has been nearly flawless in his eight appearances and 14⅓ innings for the Rangers, and yes, he came up as a starter for Bochy's Giants. Ah, loyalty.
Stock rising
Kenley Jansen, RHP, Boston Red Sox: One more save and Jansen, 35, gets to 30 of them for the ninth time in what may be a Hall of Fame career. Jansen boasts 420 saves. He has looked close to the end several times over the past few seasons, but he perseveres and should pass Billy Wagner and John Franco on the all-time saves list soon, ending the season fifth on the list. Not bad. Jansen has allowed two runs over the past month, each on solo home runs. He still misses enough bats with his one offering, a cutter he throws harder (94 mph) and more (79% of the time) than ever. One of these years, he and Philadelphia Phillies RHP Craig Kimbrel will be done, but it is not this year.
Jason Foley, RHP, Detroit Tigers: RHP Alex Lange walked three hitters over three consecutive outings during the first week of August, opening the door for Foley to save three games over four appearances. Yeah, the Tigers are winning some games! Of course, in Foley's other outing in that span, two Twins homered off him. It seems likely that Lange, if he can avoid walks, reclaims the closer role, but for now, it is probably Foley. All that aside, for points formats, the most valuable Tigers relief pitcher is none of the above. It is LHP Tyler Holton, who is missing bats and winning games in multiple-inning appearances.
Andrew Kittredge, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays: Do not panic, Pete Fairbanks investors, but Kittredge is back from Tommy John surgery and just happened to save a win in his first game. Fairbanks pitched the ninth inning in that game and earned the win. Kittredge handled the 10th inning. Kittredge was one of the top relief pitchers in 2021, winning 9, saving 8 and holding 7 with a 1.88 ERA. You bet manager Kevin Cash did not forget. If Fairbanks struggles, Kittredge is absolutely in play for saves.
Stock falling
Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals: Helsley has not pitched in a big league game since the first week of June due to forearm pain, and while it is positive news that he is pitching on a rehab assignment, there are issues. Fantasy managers invest because he throws 100 mph and the door to the ninth inning for this club is wide open. However, Helsley continues feeling pain and tightness on his rehab assignment (more tests are pending), and with the Cardinals just trying to avoid last place, it makes little sense to push him. When the Cardinals get a save chance, it appears LHP JoJo Romero is the one to get the chance.
Clay Holmes, RHP, New York Yankees: Speaking of last place, the Yankees have not won in a while, and Holmes played a rather large role in two of the losses, permitting six runs (five earned) against the Marlins and Red Sox. Overall, Holmes has been fine, perhaps better than fine. His strikeout rate has never been better, but quite a few of the ground balls he induced the past two seasons have turned into hard-hit line drives. He has allowed only one home run, and it is not like the Yankees have a better option here. The problem is the Yankees look awful. There might not be much to save the rest of the way.