No team is hotter than the Seattle Mariners and no player is doing at the plate more recently than OF Julio Rodriguez, after he destroyed Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros pitching this past week for 21 hits in 37 at-bats, a cool .567 batting average. Rodriguez homered twice, batted in 12 runs, scored seven times and stole six bases in eight attempts.
Fantasy managers complaining about the first-round pick for four months should realize he is eighth on ESPN's full season Player Rater, and easily at the top for the past 30, 15 and seven days.
Just a bit ahead of J-Rod on the full season Rater -- and just a bit behind recently -- is Royals SS/3B Bobby Witt Jr., and he has been carrying fantasy managers with his own incredible numbers. Rodriguez will win AL Player of the Week honors, but Witt performed ably, hitting .419 with three home runs, seven RBI, three steals and 10 runs scored. It seems a bit early for 2024 rankings, but Rodriguez and Witt are clearly first-round picks and certainly deserving of the noteworthy No. 2 spot after Atlanta Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr.
Fantasy managers have always been interested in baseball's 30/30 club, because home runs and stolen bases are so very different and so very valuable in our game. Rodriguez needs nine home runs to reach the milestone and Witt needs six, so it may or may not happen, but still, these are the first players in history to achieve 20/20 in each of their first two big league seasons. These are special players.
By my count, Rodriguez and Witt make up the seven players with a reasonable chance of getting to 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases this season, quite a feat when one considers nobody got there in 2022. Baltimore Orioles OF Cedric Mullins went precisely 30/30 in 2021 and Acuna and Milwaukee Brewers OF Christian Yelich succeeded in 2019.
Here are my thoughts on the seven players for 2023
Rodriguez: Well, if he continues to hit and run like the past week, he should have little problem. What interests me about Rodriguez, who raised his batting average 23 points since last Monday, is most of his metrics mirror his rookie performance. This includes BABIP. Rodriguez hit .239, .252 and .220 in the first three months of the season, but with sound peripherals. There was no need for panic. He cannot keep up a .500 BABIP for the entire month of August, but we dare to dream. I say Rodriguez finishes at 30/40, joining Alex Rodriguez (unrelated, as if you didn't know) as Mariners to join the exclusive club.
Witt: As with Rodriguez, the hard hit and barrel rates are strong, and there was never a question about speed. Unlike Rodriguez, Witt is an aggressive hitter, walking and striking out less, maintaining a higher contact rate. Any concerns we had previously about Witt, who delivered a .294 OBP as a rookie, are gone now. His fly ball rate may not support a 30-homer season, but he should get there. No Royal has a 30/30 season (Carlos Beltran was a Royal and an Astro in 2004). I say Witt ends up at 32/45. Outstanding!
Acuna: The presumptive NL MVP and likely top finisher on the Player Rater needs only two more home runs for his second 30/30 campaign. What is incredible about Acuna are the stolen bases. He has 56 steals in 66 chances. Nobody good (Oakland Athletics OF Esteury Ruiz is not good) is close in either category. We knew Acuna was physically compromised from the knee injury last season when he hit only .266. This season looks nothing like it. Have you ever seen a veteran hitter slash his strikeout rate from 23% - it was 26.4% in his monster 2019 season - all the way down to 12.3%? Amazing. We credit Los Angeles Angels DH/SP Shohei Ohtani for being a unicorn, and he is, but what Acuna is doing this season as a four-category roto option is also quite stunning. Let's predict a whopping 38/70. These are Eric Davis (look him up) numbers!
Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros: Alas, there are other players with a shot at 30/30, and they deserve attention, too. Tucker has solidified his place in the overall fantasy top 10 with what should end up his signature season. He homered twice and stole two bases in the first series of last week, against the Marlins, then missed much of the weekend with illness. As with Acuna, it is hard to fathom how someone can hit 30 home runs with a strikeout rate at 13%. Tucker is walking more than prior seasons, whiffing less, and somehow remains underrated. He is at 24/24 with six weeks left. He ends up at 33/30.
Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Carroll seemed a lock for 30/30 and eventual top NL rookie honors at the All-Star break, when he hit .289 with 18 home runs and 26 steals. Carroll has slumped since, hitting .234 with three home runs (each in July), although he is still running. Part of the problem is Carroll continues to struggle versus left-handed pitching lately, as he is not Tucker in that department. In addition, Carroll is not hitting many fly balls. I will take the under on him hitting another nine home runs, but a 28/47 season - at 22 - is fantastic!
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS/OF, San Diego Padres: Tatis has homered only twice in August, as the Padres continue to underachieve and sleepwalk through a season full of expectations. Tatis hit 42 home runs over his 130 games last season, so the fact he is 10 away from 30 with so much time left is not much of a concern. Similarly, he has five stolen bases this month. It is no stretch for him to steal five in a week. I bet the Padres still make a run soon and Tatis leads them. He seems exactly like the type of player who is well aware of what he needs to reach 30/30, thus becoming the first Padre to make it there. Tatis finishes at 31/34 and the Padres earn the final NL wild card.
Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets: Surprise! The beleaguered Mets are not making a playoff run but surging 1B Pete Alonso (four home runs over the past five games) seems intent on reaching 50 blasts for the second time, while Lindor works in even more statistical obscurity. Lindor has not homered since August 3, but do not read into anything there. He had a four-hit game in St. Louis this weekend and stole home. Lindor, 29, is well within distance of a career best in steals. A .252 batting average seems to get noticed more than anything else - along with his contract - but the underrated Lindor may reach his first 30/30 season, joining Howard Johnson, Darryl Strawberry and David Wright in Mets lore. I say this is all Mets fans discuss in the final week and Lindor finishes precisely at 30/30.