Former NL MVP Cody Bellinger was not supposed to remain a Chicago Cub after the 2023 trade deadline. In fact, Bellinger, once he signed his one-year contract to join the franchise in December after slumping over the past three seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, wasn't supposed to be valuable, either. He offered little fantasy relevance. Bellinger used to be a marvelous fantasy option, and then, rather quickly, he was not. The Cubs didn't figure to contend. Perhaps Bellinger would play well enough to entice an actual contender into a trade for a prospect.
Now the Cubs say that Bellinger will stick around, and that is probably because a wild-card berth has surprisingly become well within reach while most NL wild-card contenders muddle along. Fantasy baseball managers may not be any more eager to trade him, either, as Bellinger enters the final day of July hitting a robust .406 during the month with eight home runs, 24 RBIs and a pair of stolen bases. He is in a virtual tie with likely NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. atop the 30-day Player Rater.
The Bellinger who hit .305 with 47 home runs, 115 RBIs and 15 stolen bases while winning the real-life (and fantasy) MVP Award is not this version, and he is not coming back. Bellinger hit .203 with 41 home runs over the past three seasons. Perhaps he needed that proverbial change of scenery. He was no longer a building block fantasy option. What is he now? Well, let's not overreact, fantasy managers. Bellinger entered this July hitting .266 with only seven home runs (over three months) and a .780 OPS. Then one magical month changed everything. Should it? Shouldn't we know better?
Say this about Bellinger, who seems a shoo-in to earn the NL Player of the Month Award: he made actionable adjustments to his swing and approach, and the results are promising, if not misleading, mostly. Bellinger was awful the past three seasons, and notably so versus left-handed pitching. He had a .583 OPS against lefties last season! This season, Bellinger has a 1.032 OPS against lefties, enacting a contact-friendly strategy. There is some BABIP love here, but the approach is different. His overall strategy has evolved just to make him a batting threat.
Bellinger is making better contact these days, at 82% for the season, and his strikeout rate has gone from 27.3% to its current 15.9% mark, while he still provides modest power. However, his hard-hit rate is not even modest; it is well below average. Bellinger is pulling fly balls and getting much luck there, too. Despite the Cubs pulling his name off the trade table, this is hardly the hitting profile of a superstar, and him performing well over the course of four weeks changes little.
Few believed Bellinger, 27, would be able to properly harness such a long, looping swing, and hit for power. In addition, the Dodgers are well-run, heavily into analytics and win the NL West nearly every season. They obviously know what they are doing. Who thought Bellinger leaving the organization would be the change he needed?
Do not be fooled here, fantasy managers. The Cubs cannot trade Bellinger or risk the public relations wrath of giving up on one of their best players for, presumably, future assets (prospects). They are a .500 team, contending, at least this week. Whether they are pleased about this turn of events is problematic. They'd probably prefer a good prospect. But trading Bellinger would be a PR nightmare, even if the Cubs believe he reverts back to hitting .266 with a .780 OPS from this point forward. By the way, that is a reasonable projection.
Fantasy managers, however, should trade Bellinger for safer, immediate aid. At least consider how the Cubs viewed this situation as a golden opportunity. This isn't all about BABIP, either. Anyone hitting .406 over a 30-day span is getting some degree of luck. Bellinger's BABIP is .378 in July, well above his season marks. We can appreciate the changes he has made but this is a statistical mirage, to a large degree. Look to cash in for players more likely to offer consistent production these final two months. Well, the Cubs can't. We sure can.
Other surprising July standouts
CJ Abrams, SS, Washington Nationals: Abrams hit .216 in June. Few were interested in fantasy. He is hitting .326 in July with 15 stolen bases in as many chances. He has scored 23 runs. Abrams is more of a hero in roto for the steals, but even in points formats, get him, for this has become a top 10 shortstop.
Ha-Seong Kim, SS/2B/3B, San Diego Padres: Another player thriving in a new leadoff role, Kim is hitting .341 in July with five home runs and eight stolen bases, and his versatile defense is so great that he is guaranteed regular playing time when healthy. He hurt his shoulder Sunday. Let's see if he is OK.
Chas McCormick, OF, Houston Astros: He is hitting .351 in July with six home runs and 23 RBIs, which includes a recent six-RBI performance against the Rangers. McCormick was a platoon outfielder before this season. Now he is more than that, and he has 11 steals in 12 chances. Add him while he is hot.
Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox: Casas was hitting .225 at the All-Star break, but then he started the second half with home runs in three consecutive games. The rookie is hitting .349 with seven home runs in July and is no longer platooning. He's not a top-10 fantasy first baseman yet, but this is promising.
Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Merrifield stole 40 bases in his age-32 season for the 2021 Royals, and there were signs everywhere to avoid him in the future. His 2022 went rather poorly. Now he is leading off for a contender and hitting .365 in July with six home runs (and three steals). Anyone leading off has fantasy upside. They hit more, they presumably can score and steal more. Good for Merrifield, who's hitting better than .300 against both left-handers and right-handers, and good for us.