Here we sit, just one day away from MLB's roster expansion, which serves as an unofficial start to the season's stretch run, if you will.
We're in the heat of fantasy football draft season, schools are starting, and fall is approaching. In your fantasy baseball leagues, some of the competition might have begun checking out, thus heightening the opportunities available to you as you make a push towards a league championship. As I always remind my readers at this stage of season, DO NOT GIVE UP! Even the longest of odds can often work in your favor at this advantageous stage, but you'll need to secure the right players in order to make that final push.
Today, let's take a look at some of the under-the-radar names, players well worth adding in the leagues in which they're still available, or those for whom to trade in your custom leagues where the trade deadline hasn't yet passed (these leagues do exist). I see good things ahead for the following five players, while the three that finish off this column are ones I'd be more concerned about in these final weeks, if you currently roster any of them.
Players who should finish strong
Max Muncy, 2B/1B/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers (8.3% available in ESPN leagues): We'll start with the most-rostered player on this side of the ledger, but Muncy's final five weeks of performance might be the kind that single-handedly carries teams to a championship. Certainly he'll conclude 2022 far shy of the .246-35-88, 91-run line he averaged per 162 Dodgers games from 2018-21, but Muncy also faced a far more challenging early stage to this season than most might have recognized.
He opted not to have surgery for a torn UCL in his elbow suffered in the 2021 regular-season finale -- an injury that probably contributed to his sluggish start. This past month, however, Muncy's hitting stroke has looked much more in line with his 2018-21 form, as he has batted .270/.362/.573 with seven home runs and 19 RBI in 24 games. During that time, his contact, hard-contact and Barrel rates (as well as his average exit velocity) have all been much more in line with -- and in fact better -- than they were during the four-year span entering this season, a sign that he's finally playing at close to (if not fully) 100%.
Muncy's consistency was his strength in the previous four seasons, where he was almost always a spot-on .250-35-90, 90 runs in each. He looks to be that kind of player once more for September.
Felix Bautista, RP, Baltimore Orioles (50.8% available): Judging by his current roster rate, he is the most underrated closer in fantasy baseball right now. Bautista might be 2022's sleeper breakthrough -- using the dictionary definition of "sleeper" that references a complete unknown -- thanks to his sixth-best (among qualified relievers) 35.7% strikeout rate and eighth-ranked .158 BAA. That's what helped earn him the team's closer role following the deadline deal of Jorge Lopez.
Bautista's splitter is a devastating pitch, responsible for 49-of-76 strikeouts and a staggering 54.1% whiff rate on hitters' swings, and the little time remaining on the schedule will provide little opportunity for opponents to fully catch on to him. He's likely to play a huge part in Baltimore's sneaky charge towards the American League wild card, too, as the team has a challenging schedule that should make most of their wins closely fought contests. I see a top-10 fantasy closer's final five weeks.
Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers (98.1%): If not for the torn labrum he suffered during preseason workouts that cost him the first half of 2022, Jung might have been a popular choice for Rookie of the Year honors. However, he did get hurt -- and then Julio Rodriguez unexpectedly made the Seattle Mariners' Opening Day roster, making those thoughts a fairly lost cause.
Jung was always intended to be the Rangers' everyday third baseman, however, and he has certainly proved deserving of the opportunity now, batting .304/.360/.652 with six home runs and 21 RBIs in 16 games for Triple-A Round Rock since rejoining them earlier in the month. All indications are that the Rangers will promote him to handle the hot corner in the next few days, considering their third basemen this season have turned in the third-worst combined wOBA in the majors (.270).
Jung is a solid power prospect, capable of 25 homers right away, with enough natural lift in his swing to help both points-league and roto managers alike, and he should occupy a middle-of-the-lineup spot (if not higher) immediately. Scoop him up now while you can, since you've surely seen the mad rush with Corbin Carroll this week.
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Detroit Tigers (31.3%): Although he lost three months of his first season in Detroit to off-the-field circumstances, Rodriguez hasn't seemed to have skipped a beat since his return to the team's big-league rotation. He has allowed only one run on 10 hits in 11 innings of work over two starts, that coming on the heels of a dazzling minor-league rehab stint, providing hints that nothing has changed from the prospective top-30 fantasy starter's profile he had entering the year. Rodriguez's Tigers also face a mostly favorable pitching schedule the rest of the way, thanks in large part to their status as American League Central competitors, and he has a lot of proverbial gas left in the tank after so much missed time.
Riley Greene, OF, Tigers (83.3): The path to progress for rookies can be a haphazard one, some finding their footing in the majors immediately, others struggling mightily (and often deservedly being sent back to the minors). And then there are those who start off slow but gradually realize their full potential. Greene, one of the game's top prospects entering the year, seems to fit that latter description, at least judging by his recent returns. He has six multi-hit performances in his last eight games, doing a much better job of recognizing "his pitch" during that time span.
Greene's recent uptick seems attributable to a clear change in approach, which is the kind of change we want to see as fantasy managers. He might well have a top-30 outfielder's final five weeks and certainly is worth the speculative add, especially considering his level of upside.
Players to worry about
George Kirby, SP, Mariners (54.8% rostered in ESPN leagues): Seattle is in a precarious spot with the rookie, as he has been their third-best starting pitcher from what has been a six-man group, yet the Mariners entered the year with (and still have) workload concerns about him. Between the majors and minors this season, the machine-line strike-thrower has totaled 129 1/3 innings, nearly double what he tallied in 2021 -- and 38 1/3 more than he had in his entire professional career entering 2022.
The Mariners both need to decide how to keep Kirby's innings in check (accounting for the prospect of a playoff appearance), as well as how to count on him to simply get there. We might be days away from seeing either another multi-turn pause -- à la his "forced vacation" around the All-Star break -- or we could well be a couple of weeks away from the end of his season.
Ketel Marte, OF/2B, Arizona Diamondbacks (94.8% rostered): I'm as big a Marte fan as anyone, but it's hard to ignore the difficulty he had staying on the field in 2020-21, and I wonder whether his recent struggles could be a sign of fatigue. Since his 2-for-4, 1 HR, 4-RBI performance in his first game following the All-Star break, Marte has batted a mere .185/.244/.278 with one homer and no stolen bases in his last 28 games. Additionally, his hard-contact rate has cratered during that time -- down to only 33.3%, compared to his prior career rate of 42.4%.
Marte's Diamondbacks also have one of the most treacherous overall remaining schedules -- eight games against the Dodgers, seven apiece against the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres and two against the Houston Astros, leaving only 10 games against other opponents -- which grants him little opportunity to correct his struggles against mediocre pitching.
Alejandro Kirk, C, Toronto Blue Jays (93.6%): Speaking of the fatigue factor, Kirk's recent statistical regression could have a similar explanation. Catchers, or at least those who tally a lot of innings behind the plate, have a noted history of fading offensively down the stretch, and while Kirk gets many "half-days off" while serving as the Blue Jays' designated hitter, it bears noting that he is on pace to play in 157 games while logging 751 innings behind the plate, both of which would represent pro-career highs.
The problem with including him on this side of the column is that his elite plate approach -- he's one of the game's best contact hitters and among the most selective -- elevates his statistical floor to the point that it's foolish to simply let him go (via trade or an outright cut), since at worst he'd be a back-end, deep-mixed C1. Still, as Kirk managed a mere .241/.358/.279, with just three extra-base hits (all doubles) in his 24 games in August, he's no longer the top-three fantasy catcher he was during the season's first half.