Three Cincinnati Reds starting pitchers are rostered in more ESPN standard fantasy baseball leagues than wily left-hander Wade Miley, who beat the New York Mets on Tuesday for his eighth win, allowing just one earned run and striking out eight. Miley has the best ERA and WHIP among the Cincinnati starters, relying mainly on a cutter that averages 85.4 mph, along with an effective changeup that continues to induce soft contact. Still, it seems fantasy managers continue to have only soft interest in adding the 34-year-old veteran.
Since Miley allowed eight runs on 11 hits over three innings at Denver's Coors Field on May 14, he has been terrific over 10 outings, posting a 2.12 ERA. Miley has four wins in that span but deserves more as the Reds bullpen has struggled to hold leads. Miley has permitted more than two earned runs in only one of those outings. His strikeout rate is just average, but also not among the bottom 10 in terms of K/9. Miley contributes nicely in three categories.
Miley certainly contributed when he tossed a memorable no-hitter at Cleveland on May 7. Miley made history that evening, overpowering a weak offense that continues to struggle, yet fantasy managers showed only tepid interest afterward -- and then they appeared to lose that interest after the Rockies game. Well, get interested. Miley should start twice next week (at the selling Chicago Cubs and in Flushing against the Mets) and then he should host the Pittsburgh Pirates. There are no dominant offenses to be seen here.
Fell under your spell
Fantasy managers initially tend to overrate pitchers who throw no-hitters, even though there is ample evidence throughout history about how non-predictive one magical performance is. Myriad all-time greats like Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux never achieved one. Yet Mike Fiers has two. Alec Mills tossed one last season. Anyway, there have been seven "official" no-hitters this season. Let's check in on those pitchers and how they've been doing.
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres (rostered in 98.3% of ESPN leagues): He flummoxed the weak Texas Rangers lineup on April 9, and his season numbers look fine, with a 3.14 ERA and one of the top-20 strikeout rates among starters. What Musgrove does not do is pitch deep into games and, thanks to that issue, win much. He has just five wins in his 18 starts, surpassing five innings only three times in his past 10 starts (with only one win in that span). Musgrove is inefficient, and enjoying a .251 BABIP. When his hit rate rises, so will that fancy 0.99 WHIP, so enjoy the strikeouts, but be a bit careful here.
Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox (99.3%): This oft-injured lefty toyed with Cleveland -- there is that team again -- on April 14. He currently boasts the No. 2 strikeout rate among starters, after only Milwaukee Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes. Rodon, undrafted in most fantasy leagues, is a strong candidate for being the most valuable fantasy pitcher this season. Fantasy managers should have added him in April and stuck with him. If he can stay healthy, we should assume his final two months continue the trend.
John Means, Baltimore Orioles (91.2%): Means overpowered the Seattle Mariners on May 5, lowering his ERA to 1.37, but there have been a few hiccups since then. Means left an early June outing versus Cleveland with shoulder fatigue, returning on Tuesday night against the Tampa Bay Rays. He allowed seven hits and five runs over five innings, and it was the fifth consecutive start in which the left-hander served up two home runs. Means has not won any of them. That is a problem. His ERA is 2.72, which is great, but perhaps a bit misleading. Means is among the most-added pitchers in ESPN leagues, and he should enjoy next week facing the Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers. If he does not, move on.
Wade Miley, Cincinnati Reds (76.8%): Nothing but smooth sailing since his May 7 no-no, and little reason for concern.
Just closed my eyes and swung
Spencer Turnbull, Detroit Tigers (11.6%): He was in the news on Tuesday when the organization announced the promising, 28-year-old, right-hander needs Tommy John surgery. We may not see him for most of the 2022 season as well. Turnbull no-hit the Mariners on May 18, and pitched fine after that. He finishes the 2021 season with a 2.88 ERA. Over the past two seasons, covering 20 starts and 106 2/3 innings, he permitted four home runs. Remember the name in 2023.
Corey Kluber, New York Yankees (53.1%): The day after Turnbull's achievement, Kluber picked on the Rangers, a former team, for his fourth win in 10 starts. In his subsequent outing, Kluber lasted a mere three innings against the Toronto Blue Jays, leaving due to shoulder tightness. He has a shoulder strain and has not pitched since, though the Yankees are hopeful he returns in August. Perhaps he does, but there seems little fantasy upside or assurance here. Look elsewhere.
Zach Davies, Chicago Cubs (22.5%): The softest-tossing starting pitcher in the league, Davies went six innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 24, allowing nary a base hit but five walks, and he was done. The bullpen finished off the masterpiece. Davies has the second-lowest K/9 rate among qualified starters (behind Dallas Keuchel), and averages fewer than five innings per outing. A 3.47 ERA over the past two months is fine, but it comes with little else. Even if Davies lands with a new team next week, look elsewhere in fantasy.
Summing it all up, there have been seven nine-inning no-hitters, and Rodon, Musgrove and Miley are among the top-30 starting pitchers on the full-season Player Rater. Means is No. 40, but we should worry about the status of his shoulder. Ignore Turnbull, Kluber and Davies. I just find it interesting that despite what these pitchers have in common, how differently fantasy managers treat them. Who will be next to make history? Only time will tell.