While the more famous of the New York baseball teams has seen its closer struggle to throw strikes and prevent runs over the past month, the New York Mets laughed at their relative good fortune. Right-hander Edwin Diaz entered the final game before the All-Star break with a 2.86 ERA, one blown save and nary a home run permitted in three-plus months!
A rough three rough outings later, Diaz now boasts a 4.30 ERA, four blown saves and the fancy goose egg in the home run column famously erased over the weekend when Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings whacked a walk-off grand slam. Diaz allowed six earned runs to the lowly Pirates over consecutive appearances but had a chance for redemption Monday in a wild road game at Cincinnati. Instead, he blew a save for the third consecutive game. The Mets later won 15-11 in 11 innings.
Diaz has had rough stretches in the past, notably during his first Mets season of 2019 when he somehow found a way to permit 15 home runs in 58 innings, 10 of them against right-handed hitters. Diaz is similar to many hard-throwing closers that induce more fly balls than grounders, and some tend to fly very far, but Diaz has allowed only three home runs since the start of 2020, over 63 1/3 innings. That is not the problem. He still walks too many hitters, but really, Diaz may just be the unluckiest closer in the sport.
Check out these BABIPs for Diaz over the past three seasons:
2019: .377
2020: .381
2021: .361
Diaz was a bit wild on Monday, starting the ninth inning with a four-pitch walk to noted slugger Kyle Farmer (he is slugging a meager .318 against right-handers), though several of his four-seam fastballs were on the edge and could have been called strikes. Two outs later, Jesse Winker (dominating right-handers with a 1.027 OPS), doubled to left-center on a four-seamer right down the middle. OK, so not exactly a pounding. In the second Pirates loss, Diaz also had difficulty commanding the four-seamer. Velocity was fine, but he was either just missing the corners of the plate or dropping them right in the middle of it.
Really, I fail to see much to worry about here. Perhaps the Mets give Diaz a few days off from closing, as teams are wont to do with strugglers. Right-hander Trevor May got the final two outs in the 11th inning Monday for his third save, and second consecutive. May has permitted six home runs and a .811 OPS to lefties, so he is hardly ideal for the ninth-inning role, but he seems ahead of Seth Lugo on the depth chart. Diaz allows a low .546 OPS to lefties. His problems come versus right-handers, with a number he cannot control, a .419 BABIP. Yep, there is that five-letter acronym again. Just what is up with that?
For perspective on BABIP this season, Colorado Rockies right-hander Daniel Bard is the lone closer sporting a higher BABIP (.363), and just barely. The other relief pitchers with higher BABIP rates are so hittable and may deserve their rough luck, like Cesar Valdez and Matt Andriese. Bard has to deal with Coors Field. Diaz has to deal with ... fate.
Over the past three seasons, according to Fangraphs, Diaz has suffered through a .372 BABIP, easily the highest for qualified relief pitchers. Atlanta's Luke Jackson is next at .352, still high, but not .372 high! Then it is Minnesota Twins lefty Taylor Rogers at .339 and Kansas City Royals right-hander Scott Barlow at .336. This makes no sense!
OK, so BABIP is just one way to gauge things, but we have a large sample size, 121 1/3 innings for Diaz. The Mets are hardly a defensive juggernaut, but Diaz has a low ground ball rate anyway. His ERA over three years is 4.38. His FIP is 3.34. We recommend paying attention to the latter number for it should drive the former, but not always. Luck does not have to even out, over weeks or multiple seasons.
Still, Diaz is averaging 99 mph with his four-seam fastball. With New York Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman slipping recently in velocity, dropping his season mph to 98.8, Diaz is tied for second with injured Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Sam Coonrod with a 99 mph average. Cleveland right-hander Emmanuel Clase leads at 100.2 mph.
Diaz is second to Milwaukee Brewers lefty Josh Hader in K/9 over the past three seasons, and he is 15th among relief pitchers this season. Diaz is missing plenty of bats. Nobody thinks May or Lugo should be closing. Do not panic, fantasy managers. Diaz should get back on track soon, some luck permitting.
Stock rising
Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays: He saved three games the entire first half of the season, then saved Tampa Bay's two wins out of the break, at Atlanta. Fairbanks looks great in July, throwing 6 1/3 scoreless innings with only one of 20 batters faced reaching base! This hardly means Diego Castillo is out of the closing picture, but today, Fairbanks is a smart investment. Speaking of Rays, Nick Anderson is throwing again after missing months with a partially torn UCL. He may return in August and in this bullpen, anything is possible.
Hansel Robles, Minnesota Twins: He allowed an unearned run in Monday's save, but has yet to allow an earned run in his past five appearances, three of which have landed him saves. Robles may be on another team in 10 days, but if not, depending on what happens to Taylor Rogers, he may be Minnesota's closer.
Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies: The embattled right-hander effectively saved a game Sunday, his first since June 25. Ranger Suarez investors should be a tad worried, though the lefty was not available Sunday. Neris boasts six consecutive scoreless outings. Suarez does not. We can only guess at how many of the decisions in Philly get made.
Stock falling
Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds: I remain skeptical that Heath Hembree piles on the Cincy saves, but Garrett came out of the break and allowed hits to four of seven Brewers faced over the weekend. His ERA is 6.98. Surely the Reds have others to save games when Hembree sputters, right? Right!?!
Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers: The defending NL Rookie of the Year hit the injured list with elbow discomfort, though the team expects a short absence. Williams was pitching great and, thanks to his teammates, has four wins in the past four weeks. He and lefty Brent Suter boast 15 relief wins! Still, elbow discomfort of any kind is worrisome.
Anthony Bender, Miami Marlins: The presumed next-in-line for when closer Yimi Garcia is traded struggled leading into the All-Star break, and then pitched the sixth inning of his weekend games in Philadelphia, far from save territory. Perhaps we should cease guessing on Miami's August closer.