A Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast listener shared a tale on Twitter this week about a trade offered to him, one that he gleefully accepted only to see his league mates predictably veto. He was set to acquire an outfielder hitting (at the time) .274 with nine home runs, 38 RBI and five stolen bases for another hitting .307 with 15 home runs, 46 RBI and three steals. Sure, the stats seem to say that the player he was trading away is better and has more power, but the trade did not happen because, according to his league, he was the one getting the better end of it.
Based on expectations and ESPN ADP, yes, it is a bit ridiculous to expect a 1-for-1 trade in which Washington Nationals OF Juan Soto (the one with nine home runs at the time, and now 10) gets dealt straight up for Pittsburgh Pirates OF Bryan Reynolds (15 HR). Then again, Soto, a first-round pick everywhere, ranks outside the top-30 outfielders on the ESPN Player Rater and outside the overall top100. Reynolds is currently a top-10 outfielder. He was not supposed to be. Soto was.
Soto, however, is slugging .438 halfway through the season, when his career mark (over three seasons) entering 2021 was .557. Perhaps slugging percentage is not a category in your roto league, but home runs matter across all formats. Extra-base hits are relevant when they lead to runs scored and knocking in runs and, well, Soto boasts fewer total bases than more than 100 other hitters -- among them Joey Wendle, Luis Urias and Jed Lowrie. That is not what fantasy baseball managers expected.
Ask again later
There is no magic answer as to whether or not Soto (and any number of other perceived sluggers not exactly slugging as expected) will improve in the second half of the season. Soto, for example, is still drawing myriad walks, so if OBP matters to you, Soto is thriving there. Soto still hits baseballs hard, on par with a season ago when he slugged .695, easily the best in the game. Soto was also among the top 20 in ground-ball rate, but nobody cared when he posted a 1.185 OPS.
They care now, though, as Soto, even with Tuesday's blast at San Diego, boasts fewer home runs than the likes of Eric Haase, Robbie Grossman and Patrick Wisdom, along with nearly 100 others. In May, Soto told reporters he was aware that he was hitting too many ground balls, but his 54% rate is not too far off from last season's mark. This is not really about BABIP, but then again, because defenses are so much smarter at shifting against Soto, it figures his BABIP would fall some. It has. Soto has not made adjustments.
Ultimately, I do expect Soto to have a better second half of the season than his first and, nothing against Reynolds, but I still would recommend Soto first. Most of us would. Whether the trade deserves a veto or not is somewhat problematic. Assuming no collusion between trade partners, I do not veto trades. Potentially uneven trades happen all the time, both in real and fantasy baseball, and this may be an even swap. Reynolds looks to be legit and, while I personally would not trade Soto for him, I can see why others might take the deal. Soto is showing little sign of hitting 34 home runs, as he did in 2019 when he was 20. He has just two home runs in the past four weeks. Reynolds has eight.
If the parties are dealing in good faith, go for it. I cannot say for certain which player will be better the next three months.
Reply hazy, try again
Anyway, when I peruse the slugging percentage rankings, I see plenty of others who are underperforming. In fact, there are quite a few fantasy busts to be found here, so here are some who are on my mind today. Kevin Newman slugging .270 makes some sense to me in a 1970s middle-infield sort of way, but these fellows below? Wow! I am not so sure I expect much to change here, unfortunately.
Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: Yelich slugged .598 and .671 in his first two seasons with Milwaukee. He won one MVP, and nearly a second. Since the start of 2020, however, he is slugging just .410. Yelich is back to hitting too many ground balls, as he did in his Miami Marlins days, though I have less confidence in him returning to his MVP form than I do for Soto. His exit velocity numbers have cratered, and I wonder if the sore back that cost Yelich much of the first six weeks of 2021 continues to plague him. Do not mess with back pain. I do not view Yelich as a top-50 player for the rest of the season, and I would be extra cautious trading for him.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels: Not one, not two, but three IL stints before the All-Star break for a fellow who averaged a solid 146 games over the last four full seasons. It would be one thing if Rendon was still hitting like the 2021 fantasy third-rounder we expected, but a .382 slugging percentage is more than 100 points below his career average. As with Yelich, we have to assume that physical woes, which may need the winter to heal from, are the issue. Trading for Rendon as if he were a top-100 option based on career achievements is dangerous.
Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees: I never imagined it would get this bad for Torres, who smacked 38 home runs in 2019, in part from torching Baltimore Orioles pitching, though that was not all of it. Torres slugged .535 overall in his age-22 season. Since the start of 2020, and without any injury issues for an excuse, Torres is slugging a pathetic .328 and has a mere six home runs in 114 games and 457 PA. Even Dee Strange-Gordon has a career .360 slugging percentage! I would not trade for Torres right now -- and certainly not as if he were a top-200 option in fantasy. I am quite yet not at that point with teammate DJ LeMahieu, for at least he scores runs and has the plate discipline to hit .300. How did LeMahieu slug .590 last season, anyway?
Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals: He's gone from 48 home runs in 2019 down to just six this season -- with a .313 slugging percentage! That is astounding. Soler has not homered in a month. Quality of contact is a problem for him, along with more ground balls, but now it looks like his 2019 season was just an outlier. Rostering Soler in any league right now seems unwise.
Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, New York Mets: He slugged .616 one season ago, ranking fifth in the sport. Today's mark is more than 200 points worse. Now, Smith has hit three home runs over the past week, so it appears he is improving. As such, now is the prime time to trade for him with confidence.
Luke Voit, 1B, New York Yankees: In another borough, Voit finished sixth in slugging last season at .610 and his OPS entering Tuesday was .611. Now it is .683, so time is running out to get him cheap! Blame the multiple injuries but, as with Smith, talent tends to win out. If Voit can stay on the field, he can deliver power.
Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies: This one hurts, because while we knew his rookie season's .338 batting average was propped up by a .410 BABIP, many believed this was a 25-HR option -- a young Nick Castellanos. That may still be the case, but perhaps not this season. Bohm's game on Monday was his first this season with multiple extra-base hits -- and even then, his ninth-inning home run came off infielder Eric Sogard. Bohm is slugging .330 with four home runs. His .533 OPS against right-handed pitching is a major, major problem. Combined with being arguably the worst defensive player in the majors, Bohm really should be back in the minor leagues.
Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics: Chapman struggled over the first two months of 2021, hitting just five home runs, but then he hit six in June (while slugging .532) and all seems to be fine again. Fantasy managers are running out of time to acquire him for less than his true value.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, San Diego Padres: I cannot admit to having shares of him anywhere because he had been under-slugging for years until 2020, but his current .356 slugging percentage would be a career low, even for him. There is no reason to expect a big second half for Hosmer, who ranks second to Colorado Rockies OF Raimel Tapia in ground-ball rate.