When a star hitter goes into a bit of a slump, we usually don't blink an eye when a manager decides to give him a day or two off to figure out what might be wrong with his swing. However, when a team's closer struggles in consecutive appearances (or perhaps after even just one egregious showing) post-game press conferences suddenly find the skipper peppered with questions about whether a permanent change is coming in the ninth inning.
Generally speaking, closers remain as closers right up until the moment when their managers have a change of heart. Take Liam Hendriks, for example. From May 7 through June 10, the White Sox go-to option went a perfect 11 for 11 in save chances with 23 strikeouts and only two walks, and not a single earned run allowed. In his eight appearances since then, things have been a bit rockier (one loss, one blown save, and a 4.70 ERA) culminating in Tuesday night's tense 23-pitch outing that included a walk, a hit batsman, two wild pitches and a run allowed.
Despite the shaky showing, Hendriks ultimately earned himself another save and it would absolutely be a stunning state of affairs if this rough stretch causes him to be pulled from the closer job. He has built up more than enough "closer capital" with manager Tony La Russa to still get the call the next time the White Sox have a game on the line in the late innings. But how long is that proverbial leash? Is there any way to truly tell?
While managers typically continue to show faith in a closer who has been getting the job done -- even if a few bumpy efforts have caused the fan base to turn up the negative noise level -- nobody's job is 100 percent guaranteed. As a fantasy manager, I've found the best way of attempting to "read the tea leaves" with the skipper of a struggling save man and predicting a changing of the guard lies in one particular stat: FBA.
FBA is the batting average of the first batter whom a pitcher faces when he enters the game. Over the years, I've noticed that closers with a .200-or-lower FBA rarely get pulled from their jobs. Those between .201 and a cutoff point of the league average BAA plus 10 points (currently .248) are more often pulled during a season, even if only for a "recharging of the batteries," especially if there's another reliever on the team with a sub-.200 FBA.
Then there's the red zone of .248-plus. One baserunner from these guys and the hometown fans start to fidget in their seats, the press box starts to formulate new spins on those tried and true "is it time for a change?" queries and the manager begins popping antacids, pacing, and taking a long, hard look at the rest of his bullpen.
FBA is even more important to consider under the "new normal" rules that include starting with a baserunner on second in extra innings. Give up a hit to the first batter you face in these situations and the game might well be over. The margin for error as a reliever has never been slimmer and managers are absolutely going to notice. With that in mind, let's take a tour around the league to see which managers might be willing to try some different ninth-inning options.
Confusing situations
Philadelphia Phillies: After seeing Hector Neris blow three save chances in five outings, Joe Girardi announced that his closer was out and Jose Alvarado was in. Alvarado proceeded to blow his first save chance in the opener of Friday's double-header and Neris swooped in to earn the save in the nightcap. Neris took the loss on Saturday. Archie Bradley then got the call and saved the game on Sunday. Tuesday night, Alvarado was called on for a four-out save ahead 4-0 and got the job done - but only after allowing an inherited runner to score in the eighth on a wild pitch and then serving up a two-run blast in the ninth. So who will Girardi end up trusting with this job when the dust settles? FBA seems to say it will be Neris (.172) who will win the job back over Alvarado (.154) or Bradley (.313).
Cincinnati Reds: What a mess! Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone are both on the IL, leaving a motley trio of options for David Bell to pick between. The reason Brad Brach likely gets first dibs is the .063 FBA, better than Heath Hembree (.182) or Amir Garrett (.250). Sims (.238) is in the right range to potentially get the job back, but if Antone gets healthy first, his .176 could earn him a chance to win the role for keeps.
Detroit Tigers: Michael Fulmer (.391) was looking unlikely to get the late call from AJ Hinch for very much longer, even if his injury hadn't happened. Gregory Soto (.040) seems to me to be the one to edge out Jose Cisnero (.200) over the long run, assuming current trends continue.
Toronto Blue Jays: Jordan Romano (.208) is doing more than enough to keep the closer's job in Buffalo. Well, at least it's more than Tyler Chatwood (.261) has done. Julian Merryweather had a perfect .000 FBA before he got hurt and even though it's a very small sample size, perfect first impressions can certainly stick. He may get a few opportunities if he gets healthy. We'll have to see what happens with new acquisition Adam Cimber (.222 with Miami), who starts with a clean slate.
Ready for a change?
Arizona Diamondbacks: There may not be many saves to be had here, but Joakim Soria (.421) isn't likely to dominate what few opportunities there are. I'd lean towards stashing Ryan Buchter (.100) over Noe Ramirez (.333).
Colorado Rockies: Learn the name Tyler Kinley, because his Coors-inflated .231 looks an awful lot more appealing than current closer Daniel Bard (.480) or Carlos Estevez (.318). At some point, when Bard implodes, Kinley may get the nod.
Miami Marlins: After an awful June (two blown saves, 6.14 ERA), the only thing that may truly be keeping Yimi Garcia's (.250) saves coming is the fact that there's not a lot else for the team to turn to. Anthony Bass (.222) and Dylan Floro (.242) aren't exactly exciting alternatives.
San Diego Padres: I really don't know how Mark Melancon (.300) gets it done and, at some point, I think either Craig Stammen (.152) or Drew Pomeranz (.214) will seem like safer options for manager Jayce Tingler in a season where he has little room for error in order to make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays always seem to share the love in terms of saves, and while Diego Castillo may currently be securing the lion's share of chances, his .407 FBA and two June losses say there may be a change looming. I'd expect J.P. Feyereisen (.156) and/or Pete Fairbanks (.158) to get more chances than Castillo the rest of the way.
Texas Rangers: If I were in charge of the Rangers, Ian Kennedy (.292) would be traded to a contender before the bottom drops out. If I were in charge of your fantasy team, Joely Rodriguez (.217) would be my "stash" ahead of Josh Sborz (.296).
Potential battles ahead
Boston Red Sox: Matt Barnes (.233) has blown three saves, which is why he's flirting with danger here, with both Adam Ottavino (.143) and Josh Taylor (.154) ready to get the job done.
Houston Astros: Ryan Pressly (.233) isn't quite in the trouble zone yet, but a few stinkers in a row could end up with Ryne Stanek (.207) taking over for at least a little while assuming he doesn't stumble himself.
Kansas City Royals: Greg Holland's four blown saves aren't ideal, but the .214 FBA gives him some leeway. I'd expect Josh Staumont (.190) to be next in line ahead of Scott Barlow (.265).
Minnesota Twins: Neither Taylor Rogers (.258) nor Hansel Robles (.233) are tipping the seesaw in their favor, and Alex Colome's .481 shows there's really no other contenders. This is about as true a two-headed closer as there can be.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Is this a bullpen you can count on? I say yes. Richard Rodrigiuez (.103) is not going anywhere in the pecking order, but he may well get traded. If so, any leads the Pirates get late -- just pretend - could still stay safe with either Kyle Crick (.176) or Chris Stratton (.167). However, Crick currently gets the slight nod in our crystal ball, based on Derek Shelton's current usage patterns.
Stay the course
Atlanta Braves : Will Smith (.156) is safe. A.J. Minter (.133) next in line would likely get the nod over Luke Jackson (.345).
Baltimore Orioles: The opportunities may be few and far between here, but even with his recent hiccups, Paul Fry (.042) is very likely to continue to get the nod over Cole Sulser (.227) and Hunter Harvey (.375).
Chicago Cubs: Craig Kimbrel's rebirth seems quite safe (.143), even as Andrew Chafin (.171) and the now -injured Ryan Tepera (.200) have been holding down the fort in the 7th and 8th.
Chicago White Sox: As previously noted, Liam Hendriks (.088) will go down with the ship here, especially as neither Aaron Bummer (.250) or Garrett Crochet (.278) are coming anywhere close to making a statement.
Cleveland: James Karinchak (.129) is getting it done better than Emmanuel Clase (.241). Bryan Shaw's (.179) certainly could get the call on occasion. Los Angeles Angels: Raisel Iglesias (.133) is getting the job done and with a much better impression than either Mike Mayers (.235) or Tony Watson (.231).
Los Angeles Dodgers: We're always concerned that Kenley Jansen might go south in one fell swoop, but his .214 FBA should help him stave off any Blake Treinen chatter (.241). If anyone, Jimmy Nelson (.059) seems to be gaining the most pen momentum.
Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Hader (.071) is as firmly entrenched as any closer in the game. Devin Williams (.296), on the other hand, has been throwing a lot of pitches of late and may end up losing some high-leverage work to Brad Boxberger (.107).
New York Mets: This bullpen is about as good as it gets, with Edwin Diaz (.148) locked into the ninth and Seth Lugo (.091) and Miguel Castro (.185) ready to jump if the need arises.
New York Yankees: The Big Apple has lots of big arms. Aroldis Chapman (.200) has no need to fear being replaced, even with Chad Green (.167) and Jonathan Loaisiga (.179) there to fill in on his days off.
Oakland Athletics: Lou Trivino may not be a household name, but the .182 FBA doesn't lie. He will be the closer unless and until Trevor Rosenthal returns for the stretch drive of the season. Certainly, don't look to either Jake Diekman (.250) or Yusmeiro Petit (.343) for too much help.
San Francisco Giants: This isn't about ERA. It's about confidence. Jake McGee's .156 FBA (3.06 ERA) is simply going to be more calming than Tyler Rogers and his .281 FBA (1.40 ERA). In fact, I think Rogers may end up getting passed in the pecking order by Dominic Leone (.250 FBA, 1.35 ERA) before too long.
Seattle Mariners: Both Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero have seven saves, but Graveman's .053 FBA has led to just one blown opportunity. Montero's .219 has contributed to six. Guess who is getting this job?
St. Louis Cardinals: Alex Reyes is locked in with his .174 FBA, and the four blown saves by Giovanny Gallegos put a bit of a smudge on an otherwise shiny .069 FBA of his own. There shouldn't be a swap here.
Washington Nationals: Brad Hand (.111) is the man for the Nationals, and even more important now that the super-impressive Tanner Rainey (.167) has gone to the IL. Wander Suero on the other hand? Well, the .304 FBA screams to steer clear.