Quickly jump to any page for specific intel
Note: As spelled out below, due to the unusual nature of this scoring period, which is interrupted by the All-Star break, we have posted separate hitter ratings and pitcher rankings for the post-break four-day period from July 15-18. You can access those through the links listed above.
Baseball's traditional "first half" comes to its conclusion during Week 14, as Sunday, July 11, represents the final day of the first half, the day of the All-Star Futures Game, and the last official games before the four-day All-Star break. In the past, the final weekend of the first half was a bit of a free-for-all on the pitching side, with starting pitchers often utilized in relief on the final Saturday or Sunday and players with injuries held out in order to grant them extended rest. The latter should remain true, but the former hasn't as much in recent seasons, with teams increasingly concerned about workloads. In fact, it's as likely that teams will actually skip starters rather than squeeze them in for additional work. Specifically on Sunday (June 11), the Atlanta Braves could bypass Ian Anderson -- though their July 4 demotion of Kyle Muller greatly decreases that possibility -- and the New York Mets skip over Jacob deGrom due to recent injury questions -- again, unlikely with deGrom's hints that he'll skip his All-Star appearance. Additionally, the Houston Astros bumped Luis Garcia back by a day to avoid his second start and the New York Yankees could push back Jameson Taillon due to seasonal workload concerns. The upshot is that this is another of those weeks not to count on every two-start pitcher of yours to take his two turns, so while on the surface this appears to be a rich week for pitching volume -- there are more than 15 highly graded projected two-start pitchers -- it's also a week with a lot of risk of rotational shuffling and lost weekend assignments.
To that point, a whopping nine teams will round out the first half of their seasons while playing a stretch of at least 17 games without a day off, with three teams -- the Kansas City Royals, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Washington Nationals -- playing the final seven of 20 consecutive games. Washington's schedule is especially challenging because they'll wrap things up with a Week 14 spent entirely out west, with trips to San Diego (four games, Monday-Thursday) and San Francisco (three, Friday-Sunday). Additionally, we have the Cincinnati Reds (18 straight games without a day off), Cleveland (also 18), Milwaukee Brewers (17), Minnesota Twins (18), and both the Mets and Philadelphia Phillies (18 games in 17 days without a day off, a stretch that began with a doubleheader). The Brewers and Pirates have already shown us that they're willing to shift to a six-man rotation during these periods. This threatens the two-start status of fantasy-relevant pitchers like Cincinnati's Luis Castillo, Minnesota's Jose Berrios, Washington's Patrick Corbin, and deGrom --- all of whom currently line up to pitch the Sunday first-half finale.
A heads up for those of you in ESPN head-to-head leagues: Upcoming matchups extend a full 14 days, which includes the calendar week ahead, as well as the four days' worth of games immediately following the All-Star break (July 15-18). As teams haven't yet begun to announce their second-half rotation plans -- that typically begins around the final weekend of the first half, and generally only half of the teams even make such an announcement that soon -- fantasy managers in weekly head-to-head leagues should base their decisions more on the quality of pitching matchups during Week 14 as well as the July 15-18 weekend opponent, as well as upon the teams with the most/fewest games scheduled. Four teams are scheduled for 11 games between July 5-18: The Detroit Tigers, the Miami Marlins, the Twins and the Phillies, all of whom are scheduled for July 16 doubleheaders (Twins at Tigers, Marlins at Phillies). Six teams play nine games between July 5-18, with six of them on the road: The Braves, the Chicago White Sox, the Colorado Rockies, the Oakland Athletics, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Twins are aligned for a great Week 14, and in ESPN weekly leagues, their July 5-18 period as a whole looks excellent on both sides of the ball due to eight of their 11 games coming against a Tigers team that ranks 26th in runs per game (4.00) on offense and 22nd in ERA (4.56) on the mound. While it's almost impossible to rely on any Twins starter besides Jose Berrios (Tuesday and potentially Sunday) and Kenta Maeda (Friday) a matchups-driven "start him," the favorable overall schedule could help fill the saves column for Taylor Rogers, who has a 1.86 ERA in 11 games since June 1, or Hansel Robles. On offense, No. 2 hitter Josh Donaldson (24.8% available in ESPN leagues) is on a massive tear, batting .277/.347/.662 with eight home runs in his past 20 games. However, it's a trio of rookies who stand out as add-and-starts: Trevor Larnach (96.1% available), a .253/.383/.424 hitter against righties, and Alex Kirilloff (71.6%), a .258/.308/.425 hitter against righties, both benefit from a schedule that includes five right-handed starters (during the July 5-11 period). Catcher Ryan Jeffers (98.5%) has five homers, 14 RBIs and a .507 slugging percentage in 19 games since being recalled to serve as the team's primary backstop. The team's leadoff man against right-handers, Luis Arraez (72.4%), is also worth the add-and-start thanks to his .302 average against that side.
A few other things to consider with the July 15-18 games: The Los Angeles Dodgers begin their second half with a three-game series at Colorado's Coors Field, making their pitching matchups less attractive, but hitting matchups much more so in ESPN leagues. The Mets play three games at pitching-friendly Pittsburgh's PNC Park to begin their second half, providing a boost to their pitching staff, between both the park factor and the Pirates' light-hitting offense. The Blue Jays host the Texas Rangers for three games to begin the second half, boosting their matchups on both sides of the ball.
Philadelphia's left-handed bats benefit from a schedule facing six projected right-handed starters, including the poor-against-lefties Jake Arrieta (Tuesday), Alec Mills (Wednesday), Adbert Alzolay (Thursday) and Garrett Richards (Friday), while gaining the designated hitter for their three-game, weekend series at Boston's Fenway Park. The DH merely grants them an additional lineup spot, as they typically take a rotational approach to filling the DH slot, but this could be a bounce-back week for Bryce Harper specifically. Additionally, Didi Gregorius was activated July 2, and while his playing time will surely be managed initially, he's getting one of the best sets of weekly matchups he could ask for in his first week back.
The Marlins have the roughest go of it in Week 14, despite being one of only five teams to play seven games entirely at home -- with the other teams being the Chicago Cubs, the Twins, the Mets and the Padres. Among Miami's projected opposing starters are Walker Buehler (Monday), Julio Urias (Wednesday), Clayton Kershaw (Thursday), Charlie Morton (Friday), all of whom rank among the top-35 fantasy starting pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater. Additionally, three of the Marlins' opposing starters are left-handed, a problem for them considering they rank third-worst against lefties in wOBA (.289) and strikeout rate (27.5%) and fifth-worst in home run rate (2.8%). Limit your Marlins exposure to Starling Marte and Jesus Aguilar in standard mixed leagues.
Cleveland, the Los Angeles Angels and the Blue Jays are each scheduled to face four left-handed starters during Week 14, stacking the deck for their right-handed hitters. Cleveland got Franmil Reyes back from the injured list on July 2 and Roberto Perez on July 3, which is perfect timing for a pair of players with at least a 27-point career wOBA split favoring success against lefties. Reyes should be immediately activated in all formats. For the Angels, David Fletcher (37.3% available) has resumed getting starts out of the leadoff spot and is a .345/.396/.393 hitter against lefties, while Phil Gosselin (99.1% available) has .305/.384/.405 career rates against lefties and often gets starts between first base and left field against them. That certainly makes him appealing in 15-plus-team mixed and AL-only leagues. As for the Blue Jays, while there isn't a widely available right-handed hitter who stands out, lefty-mashing Teoscar Hernandez and Bo Bichette both get matchup bumps.