When three of the top starting pitchers in baseball all hit the injured list within the span of a few days, it becomes a problem for fantasy baseball, too. Sure, add Cincinnati Reds RHP Vladimir Gutierrez, Colorado Rockies LHP Austin Gomber and other recent statistical heroes to your teams, but good luck there. It is a bit like replacing Los Angeles Angels OF Mike Trout. Technically, there are players you can add, but no players as good as Trout. It is similar with the hurlers lost to injury this week.
Naturally, I have some thoughts about the pitchers who succumbed to injury so, rather than focus on just one, let's take a closer look at those hurlers rostered in more than 50% of ESPN standard leagues who currently call the IL home. In some cases, the news may be not so bad.
Shane Bieber, Cleveland (rostered in 99.9% of leagues): It's too early to tell how bad this is. Bieber has a right shoulder strain and the team says it will re-evaluate him in a few weeks. In the most recent Bieber outing, when he had decreased fastball velocity and the lowly Seattle Mariners clubbed 10 hits off him in 5 2/3 innings, it was evident that something was amiss. With elbows, we generally know the timetable. With shoulders, not so much. Perhaps Bieber simply needs rest. I doubt we will see him pitch before the All-Star break, but I remain hopeful for 12-14 strikeout-laden starts after that. Would I trade for him as if he will remain a top-tier starter? No, I would not.
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (99.8%): Scherzer suffered a groin strain in his most recent outing, in which he threw 12 pitches, and now the team is being cautious. This sounds like the wise move! Scherzer is having a fantastic season, as he ranks sixth among starting pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater. Still, he is 36 and, once he's back, we should not expect him to avoid missing at least some starts over the rest of the season. I do not expect the floundering Nationals to trade him. Scherzer is a solid investment, but 30 starts may be the limit, so in a volume-based statistical world, be aware.
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays (99.2%): Glasnow, the No. 7 starter on the Player Rater, is completely correct about how ridiculous it is for baseball to suddenly enforce rules it has rarely paid attention to before. Of course, the sport should not permit foreign substances on its baseballs, but to so dramatically alter enforcement and force pitchers to adjust their routines nearly halfway into a season? That is a problem. I hope we do not see any other injuries. Glasnow has a partial UCL tear and a flexor strain, and seems like a likely candidate for Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, it would be surprising if he pitches again before 2023.
Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals (98.5%): Oblique strains can take months to heal and the Cardinals announced Flaherty succumbed to a significant tear. Keep Flaherty rostered -- even in shallow leagues -- but do not expect him to pitch again until mid-August. Hey, at least this is not an elbow or shoulder injury.
John Means, Baltimore Orioles (92.8%): Somewhat like Bieber, this surprising left-hander suffered a shoulder strain and timetables vary by player in terms of potential return dates. The Orioles are not contenders, so one would think they will act cautiously, but these are the Orioles. Means excels without lighting up radar guns, so perhaps that aids in a quicker return. As for his numbers, his 2.28 ERA hardly matches the 4.18 FIP, and no pitcher arguably has benefited more from BABIP. In other words, Means was already a likely candidate for regression.
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (89.1%): A neck strain sidelined Strasburg and there is no timetable for a return. Those that invested in him probably should not have expected 30 starts anyway, since the ace has achieved this figure in only one of the past five full seasons, but this situation is particularly worrisome. Strasburg missed all but two starts in 2020 due to a nerve issue in his throwing hand. Trading for him as a top-40 starter seems dangerous.
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (86.8%): Elbow discomfort is never a good thing, but Gallen, who apparently has a minor UCL tear and will attempt to pitch through it, is throwing again and could come off the IL this month. Hey, some pitchers continue to perform with minor elbow strains. Gallen may not win much on a terrible team but, in his case, things are looking positive.
Sonny Gray, Cincinnati Reds (86.5%): Gray has a groin strain and it does not sound too serious. Look for Gray to return to pitching in the next few weeks.
Zach Plesac, Cleveland (82.8%): He fractured his thumb when he hit it on a chair while aggressively removing his shirt. Well, who among us has not done that? Baseball players are people, too! Plesac may return later this month, but my bigger concern is the minuscule strikeout rate. It was good in 2020 and awful this season. Unless he starts missing bats -- and chairs -- a sub-4.00 ERA seems like wishful thinking.
Corey Kluber, New York Yankees (63%): Another shoulder strain has Kluber (35) sidelined and, while he may return in August, keep expectations for both his health and performance well in check. I have moved on. Frankly, I am surprised he remains rostered in so many leagues.
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (61.1%): Frankly, I am surprised Sale remains available in so many leagues! Colleague Joon Lee wrote about how Sale is on the mend from Tommy John surgery and how his return may effect the AL East. Add Sale now. While the Red Sox may handle his innings cautiously for a bit, look for big numbers after the All-Star break.
Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals (58.8%): What is interesting about this veteran left-hander is that his 1.94 ERA looks to be legit. Everything checks out here. We just need health! Duffy has a flexor strain in his forearm and while these are often a precursor to Tommy John surgery, it sounds like this particular tear is relatively minor. Duffy may return later this month.
Carlos Carrasco, New York Mets (57.5%): We finish up with perhaps the most frustrating of all pitcher situations. Carrasco, who battled leukemia in 2019, originally had a sore elbow in early March. He then tore a hamstring during conditioning drills. He reportedly was throwing off a mound just a few weeks ago, but then he stopped. There is currently little indication we will see Carrasco before the All-Star break. Some will say now is the right time to invest, but Carrasco is 34 and it is tough to expect him to stay healthy for long.