Perhaps the Minnesota Twins will not be winning the World Series after all this season, despite my optimistic but foolish preseason prediction. Yeah, that selection looks terrible today, especially after seeing the Twins take a 14-3 home shellacking at the hands of the Houston Astros on Sunday, falling to 26-39 on the ugly season. Still, this franchise did win the AL Central in both of the last two seasons. As Yogi Berra famously said (though not specifically about the Twins, "It gets late early out there." Well, it is now mid-June and the Twins are currently 15 games out of first.
From a fantasy baseball perspective, nary a Twins player ranks among the top 90 on the ESPN Player Rater, although RHP Jose Berrios and DH Nelson Cruz are both close. Much has gone wrong. The 4.99 team ERA seems to be the biggest problem, but several offensive performers have underachieved as well and I am guessing fantasy managers have noticed.
This is a rather big week in Twins land because the starting pitcher who actually went off the board before Berrios (and all but 18 other starters in ESPN average live drafts) figures to return from his latest IL stint on Monday to face the Seattle Mariners, while perhaps the squad's electric but brittle center fielder will join him back on the field. Here are my thoughts on several of these Minnesota cellar dwellers.
Byron Buxton, OF: ESPN fantasy managers wisely kept Buxton rostered in 99.6% of standard leagues, despite his having to miss five weeks with a hip strain. It always seems to be something with Buxton, who last eclipsed 300 at-bats in a season back in 2017. Then again, he has never hit quite like this, either. Buxton is batting .370 with 19 extra-base hits in 24 games, and he added four more extra-base hits in three weekend games on his rehab assignment for Triple-A St. Paul. If this 2021 edition of Buxton could actually stay healthy, we would have a top-five fantasy option and perhaps a 40-homer, 20-steal monster. However, it feels extremely illogical to expect the playing time. The window to trade him in fantasy for an actual top-50 overall player ends soon. Health is a skill, too.
Kenta Maeda, SP: A right adductor strain leveled Maeda, who was great in the truncated 2020 season for the Twins, and both his ERA and WHIP have nearly doubled this season. The metrics tell us this was not all about bad luck. Maeda has a 5.27 ERA and a 5.04 FIP, as he misses fewer bats and issues more walks. Plus, when hitters have connected, there have been many more line drives and hard-hit balls. It feels right to hope that Maeda remains a top-40 fantasy starter, and to activate him in weekly formats as he faces the Mariners and Texas Rangers this week. After all, these are poor offensive clubs. We should assume Maeda pitches well from now on.
Jose Berrios, SP: Berrios, of course, is overcoming the mess around him. For proof, note that he beat the Astros on Saturday, striking out eight over seven nice innings, and he last lost a start two months ago. Since Berrios is on a one-year contract and the last-place Twins are sputtering, there is talk of Minnesota trading him in the next six weeks before the deadline. That would make Berrios more appealing in fantasy, hurling for a team like the Yankees or Giants or some other contender. I view Berrios as a borderline top-20 fantasy starter today.
Nelson Cruz, DH: Yeah, so he is not likely to win the AL MVP award, even though another 30-homer season seems likely. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has this award on lock. Still, Cruz has homered in three of his last four games and he continues to prove critics in both the real and fantasy worlds wrong. He also seems like a decent trade possibility since he is sans contract for 2022. I view better offensive times ahead in the coming months and would try to acquire him in fantasy as if he will remain a top-50 fantasy hitter -- which he surely seems capable of doing.
Miguel Sano, 1B: Nobody denies the power, but he has a .185 batting average that is only partially deflated by a rough BABIP. Sano carries a 56.6% contact rate, up a bit from 2020, but still quite ghastly. He strikes out 38% of the time. Sano is also among the leaders in fly-ball rate and perhaps this "all or nothing" is sustainable in today's game, but roto managers cannot stomach a sub-.200 batting average. I do not see it rising much. The case is easier to make in points formats but, even there, I am not so interested.
Max Kepler, OF: Kepler (hamstring strain) should return from an IL stint mid-week, and he remains available in nearly 40% of ESPN standard leagues. Kepler was never much of a batting average option to start with, but he bashed 36 home runs in 2019 and he makes far more contact than Sano. Kepler could also slot in as the leadoff hitter versus right-handed pitching, which means he can score ample runs. Minnesota's lineup is set to get stronger this week with Buxton, Kepler and contact hero Luis Arraez (shoulder) all returning from injury.
Willians Astudillo, C/1B/3B: The versatility is nice, but Astudillo, who remains sans a walk in 119 plate appearances, is not hitting enough for it to matter. And yes, I will be disappointed if he does draw a walk.
Alex Colome, RP: We praised this one-year contract because Colome posted a 0.81 ERA for last season's Chicago White Sox. Now, nobody expected a repeat but I still expected so many saves. Colome has all of two saves right now to go along with a ghastly 5.48 ERA. He is showing no signs of returning to a key role in this bullpen, as he's allowing hard-hit balls in every appearance. In fact, I wonder if he remains on this team much longer. Minnesota should just move on. Fantasy managers should as well. Colome is rostered in 32.2% of leagues. Left-hander Taylor Rogers and right-hander Hansel Robles will likely split the saves for a while but, if this club loses 90 games, neither will command many save chances.
Other Twins musings
Right forearm tightness should cost right-hander Michael Pineda at least a start or two -- and perhaps many more. Pineda is 57% rostered but, with just four strikeouts over his last three outings, it was clear something was amiss. It may be time to move on, preemptively.
No, I do not know how right-hander Randy Dobnak posted a 1.59 ERA in 2019. Luck? Just baseball? His current 8.38 ERA is also a bit unlucky, but you do not want a pitcher with his rather ordinary skill set.
Rookie shortstop Nick Gordon stole a pair of bases this weekend, giving him five in 11 games. Gordon can run, but offers little pop. Buxton and Arraez push him from playing time, though Gordon could play regularly if the season continues slipping away. This is a name to monitor in roto formats.
Catcher Mitch Garver had groin surgery recently and likely misses at least another month. The power he showed in 2019 looked legit, and he can draw a walk, but I would not wait around for his return. Sub Ryan Jeffers is not going to help us much with his walk and strikeout rates.