Philadelphia Phillies OF Bryce Harper entered this season having missed just 10 games since the beginning of 2018, so calling him brittle because he hit the injured list on Tuesday seems quite a bit unfair. Similarly, calling Harper overrated in either real or fantasy baseball also does not make sense. He has averaged 30 home runs, 97 RBI, 13 stolen bases and a 134 OPS+ per full season after his 2015 MVP year, and was well on his way to big numbers in 2021 as well.
So choose your narrative, fantasy baseball managers, but when Harper comes off the injured list -- perhaps as soon as he is eligible mid-next week -- expect strong production, as usual. No, not 2015 MVP-level production, but Harper warranted a safe spot in the second round of ESPN average live drafts (both in points and roto leagues) for myriad reasons, among them his reliability and consistency. The Phillies both currently and of recent lore are major underachievers (in terms of bullpen, defense, roster construction, you name it), but Harper is certainly not one of the problems.
Harper's recent slump and rough May is likely still a direct result of St. Louis Cardinals LHP Genesis Cabrera wildly plunking him in the face with a wayward 98-mph fastball on April 28. Harper missed seven of the next eight games and admitted to reporters that when the pitch ricocheted from his face to his wrist/forearm, that was the bigger issue preventing a return to full health and the lineup. Harper hit .321 with a 1.063 OPS in April. Awesome! He hit .211 with a .634 OPS in May, with a career-worst swinging-strike percentage. It was a rough month which, for him, is now complete. What awaits in June?
The Miller's tale
We assume that health and production awaits because, while Harper may not be universally beloved inside or outside Philadelphia, his career OPS is .900, seventh-best among active qualifiers. The only one ahead of him we would take in a fantasy league today is Mike Trout, yet another of the top players in fantasy who are not currently playing. Both are on a Hall-of-Fame track. Both major-league organizations and fantasy managers struggle to replace these players, and this season has been notably frustrating, with Trout, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Cody Bellinger, Jacob deGrom and Christian Yelich all among the top-20 players missing considerable time.
The Phillies went with Brad Miller in Harper's No. 3 lineup spot and in right field on Tuesday. As long as he hits, this arrangement figures to continue, because the Phillies seriously lack outfield depth. A third baseman from the 2020 season, Miller played his 10th game in the outfield on Tuesday, adding eligibility there in ESPN formats. He bats left-handed, but boasts even splits over the past three seasons, so expect him to play regularly. Nobody, including the Phillies, wants Roman Quinn to play, so stop asking.
Miami Marlins veterans Garrett Cooper and Adam Duvall are among the most-added outfielders in ESPN leagues, and both deserve more attention. Cooper is the more versatile statistical option, but Duvall has 25 home runs since the start of 2020 -- in a mere 372 PA. He can hit 30 home runs. I would also check to see if Baltimore Orioles slugger Anthony Santander is somehow available in your league. Minnesota Twins rookie Alex Kirilloff, Texas Rangers lefty Willie Calhoun and versatile San Diego Padres veteran Jurickson Profar can all help your teams as well.
Frankly, we were at this point one week ago when Trout strained a calf and hit the injured list. The replacement options we wrote about for fantasy underwhelmed, to say the least, and now Harrison Bader, the top name on that list, is out with a rib fracture. Good luck!
Musings from a Phillies fan
As for the Phillies, missing the entire middle of the lineup with Harper joining top fantasy catcher J.T. Realmuto and shortstop Didi Gregorius on the IL, scoring runs may be a challenge for a while. Regardless, I watch this team regularly, and often it is painful, but as one might have guessed and some have asked for, I have some random thoughts.
Keep foolishly drafting catchers in the first 10 rounds of fantasy drafts if you must, but I still think it is so ill-advised -- and Realmuto being out is a good reminder. He has dealt with multiple injuries this season, and it's not even June yet. Catchers do not play as often as other position players do even when they are healthy, and most struggle to stay healthy. Realmuto, 30, remains my top catcher in fantasy and a strong 2021 investment, but I almost never trade for a catcher in-season or get too excited about them in dynasty formats. They get hurt!
Gregorius remains rostered in 66% of ESPN standard leagues and he may end up being worth it in 2021, but I worry his elbow injury lingers. I thought Gregorius could hit .270 this season with 25 home runs, but he is not a noteworthy provider in batting average, stolen bases or runs scored, nor does he make up for this in points formats with walks. I would not drop him for Nick Maton, who is not a .300 hitter, but I would do so for the suddenly powerful Brandon Crawford, the suddenly playing Gavin Lux and the suddenly hot Amed Rosario.
Outfielder Andrew McCutchen is hitting a sad .207 against right-handed pitching over 290 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season, sans much power or speed. He is also one of the worst outfielders in the sport, a long way from his Pittsburgh Pirates days. Unfortunately, the likable former MVP just has not been the same since suffering the torn ACL two months into the 2019 season, his first in Philadelphia. Loyalty aside, the Phillies should have already been platooning him with Miller -- and certainly not letting McCutchen bat leadoff. Fantasy managers seem too loyal here as well, rostering him in 78% of leagues. That is far too generous.
Third baseman Alec Bohm hit a misleading .338 as a rookie, and with excellent plate discipline. That part seemed legit. I think Bohm can hit .280 with 25 home runs annually, making him a pre-2021 version of Cincinnati Reds OF Nick Castellanos. The current version of Bohm is hitting .212, with half the walk rate and far more strikeouts, but everything else actually looks fine. He is hitting baseballs hard and to all fields, only right at defenders. I would be patient here. All preseason expectations remain in play.
First baseman Rhys Hoskins drew four walks in the recent weekend series against the Boston Red Sox, but his walk rate is still down from 15.7% a season ago (and that was roughly his career rate) to 8.4% this season. He was never going to win a batting title to start with, but for those in points leagues, the loss of these walks is critical to his value. Hoskins, who provided all the runs in Tuesday's win with his 10th home run, may also struggle to hit 30 home runs thanks to his low 38.9% fly-ball rate, way down from well over 50% each of the past three seasons. When the .328 BABIP falls apart -- and with this ground-ball rate, it will -- Hoskins may hit .226, as he did in 2019. With the lineup around him stripped down, be careful here.