Tuesday was a day of lesser-known pitchers putting forth strong efforts, two of which grace today's list of recommended pickups. The day's recommendations, however, begin with a slugging first baseman from a better-than-expected San Francisco Giants team:
Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: Giants hitters have become popular in ESPN leagues recently, with three of them residing among the 25 most-added hitters in the past seven days, and Belt is the one in the available-in-more-than-75%-of-leagues class that I'd strongly recommend adding. Criticisms surrounding him are obvious: His injury history, as he has made nine trips to the injured list in the past eight seasons alone, and his tendency to fatten up his statistics during his Coors Field visits, as he has .323/.385/.569 rates and 13 home runs in 273 career plate appearances there and just delivered a 4-for-10 (.400 BA), two-homer, seven-RBI series there from May 4-5.
While Belt's career might ultimately be judged a disappointment -- at least through this stage of it - he has strong underlying metrics hinting better things ahead, with many of them showing significant improvement just in 2020-21. Since the beginning of last season, he has a 49.2% hard-hit rate per Statcast, 23rd out of 231 hitters with at least 150 batted balls, and 18.0% Barrel rate, third-best among that group behind only Bryce Harper (19.0%) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (18.0%). Belt has batted .255/.355/.471 with 24 home runs and 75 RBIs in the Giants' past 162 games for which he was on their active roster, missing only six during that span in fact, and his strong contact-quality metrics hint that he might be capable of .270-30 production moving forward.
Adbert Alzolay, SP, Chicago Cubs: While his Tuesday quality start was driven in part due to the favorable matchup, Alzolay is another of the relative-unknown pitchers whose pitch-selection changes this season make him well worth a speculative pickup. Previously a fastball-curveball-changeup pitcher with sketchy control, the right-hander has radically shifted his offerings, throwing a nasty slider 45.9% of the time through six starts, while shaving his walk rate to 5.7%, his lowest number in a single year since his 5.6% rate in Class A ball in 2016.
Alzolay's slider has generated 22.7% swinging-strike and 34.6% called-strike rates, which rank 19th and 28th among 104 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 in 2021, and between that, his four-seam fastball and sinker, he seems to have boosted his skill set to the point that he might contribute top-60 fantasy starter's numbers, assuming the Cubs grant him the requisite number of starts to get there. Certainly the changes are enough to warrant a speculative add, even in standard mixed leagues.
JT Brubaker, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: One of the few bright spots for a rebuilding Pirates team thus far, Brubaker spun a gem Tuesday against the division's toughest lineup, giving him his third quality start in his past five tries. In seven starts, the right-hander has held his opponent to three runs or fewer in each, posting a 25.5% strikeout rate that is his best in any of seven professional seasons, and a 5.6% walk rate that is his best since his pro debut in 2015. Brubaker's raw stuff isn't that of an ace, his fastball lacking top-shelf velocity (92.8 mph average) and his slider, sinker, curveball and changeup all good-not-great offerings, but all five have performed well thus far, and his improved command has made him a higher-floor fantasy arm than expected.
Remember, Brubaker calls one of the most pitching-friendly environments his home in PNC Park, and the National League Central is hardly full of many elite offenses (outside of a healthy Reds lineup). He's still someone to avoid when facing the game's tougher matchups, but should be rostered in more deep-mixed and NL-only leagues than he is.
In order to clear room on your roster, here is a pair of players you can freely cut in most standard mixed leagues:
Jonathan India, 3B/2B, Cincinnati Reds: His emergence as the Reds' Opening Day second baseman, after having been a third baseman for most of his college and minor league career, was a great spring training story, but in recent days it appears that the experiment might be nearly over. While India missed five games while on the injured list for an undisclosed reason (presumably COVID-19 protocols), that he has started just 3-of-6 Reds games since his activation doesn't bode well for his immediate future. Nick Senzel has begun seeing time at second base -- five starts there in the team's past nine games -- another move that makes sense considering India's below-average defensive metrics at the position thus far. Sure, India's plate discipline thus far has been good, but his contact quality metrics simply aren't good enough to justify keeping him around in a mixed league if he's not playing every day.
Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals: To be clear upfront, this move pertains only to shallow-mixed and ESPN standard, as Robles is still likely to play regularly and provide the handful of stolen bases teams need in deep-mixed and NL-only. At this stage, however, it seems clear that Robles' weak contact quality is a hindrance, as he ranks among the league's bottom 10% in both Barrel and hard-hit rates and is in the 11th percentile in average exit velocity. Worse yet, he has been slotted eighth or ninth in the lineup in 19 of his past 20 starts, with five of the No. 9 assignments in American League games with the designated hitter, leaving 11 starts as the No. 8 hitter ahead of the pitcher, a hindrance to him stealing bases. Robles' raw speed also hasn't seemingly recovered from its 2020 dip in Statcast sprint speed -- he's averaging 29.1 feet per second, after 29.3 last year -- leaving little room for enthusiasm after what, granted, was an encouraging spring training.