Rostering Boston Red Sox RHP Matt Barnes back in 2019 was a wild ride. Oh, there were strikeouts, as only two relief pitchers registered more, but Barnes also permitted a flood of walks and home runs -- and nobody had more wild pitches. Barnes throws hard and relies upon a nasty curveball, but during that wild season (and the abbreviated one in 2020), it was tough to imagine him ever becoming a top closer, either for the Red Sox or for fantasy baseball investors. He was just too wild.
Through one month of the 2021 season, Barnes has seemingly harnessed his stuff, striking out 25 of the 52 batters he has faced, issuing only three walks, and putting aside any talk of a closer battle with Adam Ottavino -- which actually existed through March. Ottavino surely went before Barnes in some late-March drafts. Now that looks silly as the former still struggles with his own wildness and the latter has completed one of the best months of his career, earning MLB's AL Reliever of the Month honors. Barnes enters Tuesday ranked third among "true relievers" in points formats.
We always said that if Barnes could only reduce his walk rate, things would get better. Now, in his age-31 season, he has done precisely this. Barnes credits a more aggressive, efficient approach for his success, as he works quicker and focuses more on throwing strikes, trying to give hitters less time to think about which of his two offerings he will send their way. While more known for his hard and occasionally wild fastball -- which he has harnessed better so far -- he has permitted just one hit off his curveball for the season.
Only two relief pitchers are striking out hitters at a better rate than Barnes, whose current number sits at 48.1%. One is New York Yankees LHP Aroldis Chapman (at a ridiculous and unsustainable 68.6%), and Cleveland RHP James Karinchak follows at 58.7%. I use strikeout percentage (K%) to evaluate pitchers when possible, rather than K/9, for I feel it is a more accurate depiction of dominance. From 2019-20, Milwaukee Brewers LHP Josh Hader led all pitchers by striking out 46% of hitters faced, followed closely by Tampa Bay Rays RHP Nick Anderson at 42.2%. Barnes was ninth at 36.4%, but also 15th in walks percentage (BB%). Today, he is not. If he can continue his strike throwing, he can remain as a top-five closer.
Value rising
Ian Kennedy, Texas Rangers: He was vastly underrated in 2019 when, in his first shot at closing (during his age-34 season, no less), he was among the better options in fantasy over the second half of the season. He is underrated again! Kennedy still has yet to walk a hitter this season, and he has almost no competition for saves in the Texas bullpen. He saved all three team wins in the recent series against the Red Sox, permitting nary a baserunner along the way. I am not sure what people are waiting for here. Kennedy could be a top-10 closer this season.
Trevor May, New York Mets: Jeurys Familia stepped in for the save on Sunday night in Philadelphia when closer Edwin Diaz gingerly left the field with back tightness, but if that injury lingers I think May is the one next in line for saves. He is clearly pitching better than Familia, and has permitted nary a walk over the past three weeks. May pitched a clean eighth inning on Sunday. Anyway, we hope Diaz returns to health, but May is off to a strong start and looks like the best pitcher in New York's bullpen. That fact alone should yield some saves.
Caleb Thielbar, Minnesota Twins: Who? This softer-throwing, left-handed curveball specialist ranks seventh in baseball in K%, with an impressive 21 whiffs among his 48 batters faced. It seems unlikely that saves will come his way, even with the struggles of right-hander Alex Colome and fellow lefty Taylor Rogers giving up a few runs in his most recent outing. Still, Thielbar is missing bats and that might be enough in deep leagues. By the way, for those rostering Hansel Robles just in case some save chances come his way, he has faced 13 batters in his last three appearances and struck out none of them.
Value falling
The Cincinnati Reds bullpen: It seems like this is a bullpen to avoid in fantasy, as Reds relievers boast a 5.76 ERA, with only the lowly Detroit Tigers ranking worse. We recommended Tejay Antone recently, but the Chicago Cubs embarrassed him over the weekend, as he blew his save chance. Lucas Sims has permitted runs in three out of his four outings, and struggles to throw strikes. On the left-handed side of things, Amir Garrett allowed another home run while you were reading this. Sean Doolittle is merely a lefty specialist at this point. Is Danny Graves available? Clay Carroll? I'd rank Antone first among active Reds relievers, and he is the most popular right now, being rostered in 22% of standard leagues. That said, I doubt anyone here is going to pile on the saves.
Jose Alvarado, Philadelphia Phillies: Hector Neris is likely to lose the closer role at some point, thanks to his own inconsistencies, but even when the emotional Alvarado ends up with save chances -- and he will -- the chances are good that the left-hander will fritter them away with his own wildness. Alvarado struggled to find the strike zone this past weekend versus the Mets, hitting his third batter of the young season, walking three more, and instigating a bench-clearing incident with Dominic Smith for no good reason. Fantasy managers desperate for saves will add Alvarado at some point, but those saves will come at a cost.