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Things couldn't have gone much more ugly thus far for the Minnesota Twins, who entered play on April 30 at just 8-15 after dropping 13 of their last 16 games. In Week 5, they'll get a prime opportunity to turn their season around, with seven total games against a pair of last-place teams, the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers. While a few of those opponents' starters have had their moments -- Kyle Gibson (Rangers) and Matthew Boyd (Tigers) have both pitched well, and youngsters Dane Dunning (Rangers) and Casey Mize (Tigers) have each had their moments -- these teams have both struggled to get volume out of their starters, with Texas ranking 27th (79.6) and Detroit 24th (80.7) in pitches per start. This is especially a problem considering Texas ranks 26th (4.68) and Detroit 30th (6.45) in relief ERA. You've surely got Byron Buxton, Nelson Cruz, and (probably) Josh Donaldson locked into your fantasy lineups, but this offense has a lot to exploit in this seven-game week, with all seven projected opposing starters being right-handed. Max Kepler (COVID-19 protocol) is due back in time for the week, Luis Arraez (65.1% available in ESPN leagues) has made every one of the team's starts against right-handers out of the leadoff spot and should continue to find field positions in which to do so, and Alex Kirilloff (81.1% available) should grab enough of the first base at-bats to warrant activation in 15-team mixed and AL-only leagues. On the pitching side, presumed new closer Taylor Rogers (41.3%) is a strong, universal start facing a pair of teams ranked in the bottom 10 in runs per game, wOBA, and strikeout rate. By the way, the Tigers rank a distant last place in all three, while the Rangers occupy the second-to-last spot in K%. It's a start-'em-all week for the Twins rotation, with Kenta Maeda lined up for a bounce-back week and J.A. Happ (79.7% available in ESPN leagues) a great add-and-start as the team's two aligned two-start pitchers.
The hit-by-pitch to Shohei Ohtani's right elbow on May 2 has cost him his scheduled Monday start, and with it a chance at his first career two-start pitching week, as the Los Angeles Angels scratched him out of an abundance of caution. That casts the team's rotation into uncertainty, as Jose Quintana is now scheduled to pitch Monday but it's unclear when Ohtani will be allowed to start next and the six-man rotation structure makes it tough to project too far ahead. Ohtani is now a difficult sell as a pitching option in leagues with weekly transactions, as there couldn't be much wider disparity between his projected Game Scores if he faces the Tampa Bay Rays (49) or Los Angeles Dodgers (45) -- four full points is an unusually large gap, and the latter is a completely unplayable projection. From a hitting standpoint, Ohtani matches up better, as he has started 21-of-23 games as the team's No. 2 hitter, including a pair of lineup assignments in his pitching starts (with his team foregoing the DH). The Rays and Dodgers, however, have generated the eighth- (35.2%) and fifth-largest (38.5%) percentage of pitches from left-handers, tempering enthusiasm for this hitter who has a career wOBA 63 points lower against lefties (.315) than righties (.378). It's tough to endorse Ohtani as anything more than a hitter in a weekly league, but don't expect huge things from him in a week where he'll likely face Tyler Glasnow (Monday), Shane McClanahan (Tuesday) and Julio Urias (Saturday), all hard throwers.
Remember that Tigers-Baltimore Orioles dream combination the New York Yankees drew in Week 4? The Boston Red Sox get that benefit in Week 5, albeit in one fewer game (six, to the Yankees' seven this past week). Yes, the Yankees disappointed on offense in a pair of those games in Baltimore, but the Red Sox offense has considerably outperformed that of the Yankees thus far, and it still seems premature to believe in a Matt Harvey resurgence. The Red Sox are projected to face two (and possibly three) left-handed starters -- a big reason why their right-handed hitters grade so well -- meaning it's another Enrique Hernandez (45.2%), Bobby Dalbec (86.8%) and Hunter Renfroe (94.2%) week. Considering the Tigers (30th, 2.88) and Orioles (27th, 3.64) rank among the four worst teams in runs per game, however, the real Red Sox fantasy standout of Week 5 might well be two-start pitcher Nick Pivetta (83.6%), who has scored 12-plus fantasy points in 4-of-5 starts.
The Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago White Sox for a pair of interleague games on Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in five-game weeks for each -- the only teams scheduled to play that infrequently during Week 5. This is a bigger matchups problem for the Reds, who have to tangle with hot-starting Carlos Rodon and Dylan Cease in those games, not to mention Zach Plesac (Friday) and Aaron Civale (Saturday) during their three-game weekend trip to Cleveland, but the effects of the DH rule come into play for each team. For the White Sox, their highest-WAR hitter, Yermin Mercedes (1.3), won't have a place to play for 2-of-5 games, as he'd bump another fantasy-relevant player if slotted at either catcher or first base. Manager Tony La Russa has already hinted that Mercedes will be limited to pinch-hitting duty for those two games. For the Reds, gaining the DH for 3-of-5 games provides a place for Jesse Winker to shift -- he made 35-of-60 starts at DH for the Reds in 2020 -- to open up starts for both Tyler Naquin and Nick Senzel.
Fantasy's Week 4 showed us teams' preferences to give their starters additional rest, as the Dodgers, Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and Oakland Athletics all migrated to six-man rotations after the week had already begun -- and that was in addition to teams that had already announced such plans detailed in this space. Entering Week 5, those Brewers, Athletics and Rays will wrap up 17-day stretches without a day off, as will the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies, while the Rangers will be playing days 11-17 of a 19-day stretch without a day off. Brace for spot starters being inserted in those rotations, with the Athletics' and Rays' rotations being especially cloudy after the recent insertions of Mike Fiers and McClahanan. The Brewers' rotation is unclear after Corbin Burnes' placement on the 10-day IL, as he has already been scratched from his May 2 start, with his return date unclear. If it turns out this was a COVID-19 protocol related move, he could return for his next scheduled turn on Friday, if not sooner. The Cardinals' plan is also uncertain after Adam Wainwright was placed on said COVID-19 IL, with the tentative plan for him to be activated to start Monday. The Phillies' Aaron Nola is the projected two-start pitcher at the most risk of losing his second turn, should the team decide to make the spot starter/extra rest move. The Mets' Jacob deGrom has already been pushed back to Tuesday, giving him an additional day's rest.
The Athletics are one of four teams scheduled to play seven times in Week 5, with all of those games coming at home, joining the Kansas City Royals, Angels and Cardinals. In the process, they might face as many as six left-handed starting pitchers -- they have a team wOBA 32 points higher against lefties than righties -- and remember the above note that the Rays' pitching staff leans much more left-handed than the average big-league team. Righty-hitting Nos. 1 and 2 hitters Mark Canha and Ramon Laureano are obvious plays facing this schedule, but Stephen Piscotty (96.7%) is a noted lefty masher, with career .278/.359/.480 rates against them.
Among currently injured players who might make their returns in Week 5: Max Fried (hamstring) threw a pain-free batting practice session on April 29 and appears set to rejoin the Braves rotation on Tuesday or Wednesday at Nationals Park, an assignment that would draw an unsavory 47 Forecaster Game Score projection. ... Hyun Jin Ryu (glute) should be ready for activation on the first day he's eligible (Thursday), though his Game Score projection is greater if he's back on the mound that day (59), rather than during the team's weekend series at Houston (56). ... The Toronto Blue Jays will get Teoscar Hernandez (COVID-19) back in time for their seven-game Week 5. ... Boyd isn't expected to make his scheduled Wednesday start, but he might be ready to return during the weekend series against the Twins.
The Rays, unsurprisingly, have used 25 different lineups in their 25 games entering play on April 30, but it's actually not that difficult to extract value from their batting order when they face a left-handed starter. Manuel Margot (64.7%), Yandy Diaz (94.4%) and Mike Brosseau (98.5%) have each started all nine games against a left-handed starter thus far, with Diaz batting first through fourth, Brosseau third through fifth and Margot second through sixth. Brosseau and Diaz each have .365 career wOBA against left-handers and Margot is at .330. He should benefit from a base stealing-friendly schedule against weak-armed catchers Max Stassi and Kurt Suzuki (not to mention below-average Sean Murphy during the weekend series). That's all good news considering the Rays are scheduled to face four lefty starters.
The San Francisco Giants benefit from a week-opening, three-game trip to Colorado's Coors Field, but it's a more beneficial schedule for those who can exploit the hitting matchups in leagues with daily, rather than weekly, transactions. The Giants, unfortunately, have to tangle with Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and Chris Paddack during a weekend series against the San Diego Padres, while the Colorado Rockies make a week-ending, three-game visit to pitching-friendly Busch Stadium.