It became obvious late in Spring Training that Philadelphia Phillies manager Joe Girardi would have little choice but to start the new season with right-hander Hector Neris as his closer. Perhaps initially he did not want to roll with Neris, one of the few returning options from a historic mess of a 2020 bullpen that produced an incomprehensible 7.06 ERA. That said, at least Neris is experienced -- and he has pitched well so far, saving a pair of games and permitting just one base hit over five scoreless outings. He remains available in 52% of ESPN standard leagues.
Neris was only part of the problem for the Phillies in 2020, with a rare combination of a misleading 4.57 ERA (far worse than his 2.49 FIP) and a truly ugly 1.71 WHIP. However, with left-hander Jose Alvarado (the lone lefty in this bullpen) struggling to throw strikes late in March and right-hander Archie Bradley failing to reach the velocity of his past, Neris is the correct option to close. It is tough to determine exactly how unlucky he really was last season. A bloated BABIP and a ridiculous strand rate played some role, but then again, Neris went from double-digit home runs allowed to zero, so that was fortunate.
Neris is among the most-added relief pitchers in ESPN Fantasy and that makes sense, because saves are coming his way and he could keep the role. However, he is also far from consistent -- and not just from outing to outing. He was good in 2019, but the year prior, he was so bad he earned a demotion to Triple-A. His career ERA is 3.33, which sounds about right, but is far from ideal. Neris may very well drive us all mad since he relies so heavily on one pitch (the split-finger fastball) and sometimes it just does not do its job properly. Hitters know what is coming and, at times, they tee off. Still, would a career-high 30 saves surprise us? Nope.
Philadelphia's revamped bullpen has played a key role in the team's good start to 2021. Girardi utilizes Alvarado in the eighth-inning role, and he is next in line for spare saves. The former Tampa Bay Rays setup man regularly hits 100 mph, but runs myriad deep counts and loses command at times. We could get 100 strikeouts in 60 innings here, and perhaps double-digit saves. Meanwhile, Bradley hit the injured list with an oblique injury and, despite initial optimism when he signed, it became clear he was not earning saves. Former San Francisco Giants right-hander Sam Coonrod and young Connor Brogdon could both be save options at some point over Bradley, whose fastball velocity peaked in 2016 and continues to fall.
Ultimately, Neris seems to have more security in the closer role than fantasy managers may want to admit, and the opportunity remains to add him as a free agent. I guess I can see why more fantasy managers are adding Baltimore Orioles right-hander Cesar Valdez, Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Corey Knebel, and St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Giovanny Gallegos first. Still, Neris should get more saves. Just forget I wrote any of this when things go awry.
Stock up
Diego Castillo, Tampa Bay Rays: The defending AL champs lost Nick Anderson (elbow) and Pete Fairbanks (shoulder). So far, one pitcher has all their saves. Well, it's only three saves, but manager Kevin Cash might have to rely on Castillo as his main option, unlike last season when everyone got a save.
Yimi Garcia, Miami Marlins: On the other side of the Sunshine State, manager Don Mattingly quickly tired of Anthony Bass after a few rough outings, and Garcia saved a weekend win over the Mets. He also won Monday's game. Garcia seems likely to have his own rough outings going forward -- he allowed 15 home runs in 2019 -- but he has the closer role today.
Matt Barnes, Boston Red Sox: He has multiple strikeouts in each of his four outings, while Adam Ottavino is struggling. That is all it takes to secure a role!
Tyler Rogers, San Francisco Giants: The submarining twin brother of Minnesota Twins LHP Taylor Rogers leads the league in holds with four. With left-hander Jake McGee thriving and Reyes Moronta shut down with a bad elbow, this success should continue.
Lou Trivino, Oakland Athletics: The right-hander is off to a nice start and, with Trevor Rosenthal done for months, someone has to close. It appears it will not be left-hander Jake Diekman, leaving the task (most likely) to either Trivino or J.B. Wendelken. Trivino got the ninth inning on Monday.
Stock down
Alex Colome, Minnesota Twins: Four of the nine hits he has allowed over five appearances came on Sunday, with one notable one from Kyle Seager traveling 383 feet over the right field fence. Taylor Rogers is back in play for saves, and right-hander Hansel Robles could end up leapfrogging them both.
Raisel Iglesias, Los Angeles Angels: His proclivity for permitting home runs absolutely concerns me. He allowed 12 home runs in both 2018 and 2019, and served up another pair during the first week of 2021. Little stops him from earning saves, but who knows how patient manager Joe Maddon will be in this respect.
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals: Three Royals have saves but Holland is not among them, probably because he has walked five of the 17 hitters he has faced so far. Holland should get saves, but they may hurt a bit in fantasy.
James Karinchak, Cleveland: He can still be a points league monster without saves, but in roto purposes (at least for now it appears) it's Emmanuel Clase who is getting the saves. Clase lost on Monday, but it was hardly a blowup performance.
Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres: He is pitching well and his place on this side of the Stock Watch is not really his fault, Still, if Mark Melancon gets all the saves, then roto managers will part with Pomeranz.