Fantasy baseball managers in redraft formats need not worry about how Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez ages when his new long-term contract extension, announced this past weekend, nears its end. They worry about this season and based on current ADP figures, they do not seem to be worried at all. Perez is going in the ninth round of ESPN drafts, the No. 2 catcher off the board.
It makes some sense, I suppose, though I am not the one to be recommending catchers in the first 100 picks of a standard mixed draft, especially ones that have already hit the magic age of 30. By any measure other than drawing walks, Perez was awesome in 2020, winning AL Comeback Player of the Year honors and ending up the No. 2 catcher on our Player Rater. Few expect him to hit even 50 points close to his 2020 batting average this year, but he boasts clear value. So does Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, the first off the board at the position.
Still, these are catchers, and they come with inherent risk, for now and later. Did the Phillies and now Royals make the right moves in investing in catchers for so much money into their mid-30s? Probably not! Each franchise stands to regret the length of their contractual commitments, as team management freely admits making the moves because due to loyalty and emotional reasons. Fantasy managers in keeper/dynasty formats should/must be smarter. Perez and Realmuto are durable among their peers but history tells us this does not last, and offensive production suffers with age, especially at catcher. Invest in 2020 but trading for them and guaranteeing a fantasy contract is worrisome.
I rank Perez as my No. 2 catcher like most everyone, though he would not be my choice in a fantasy league that considers walks and/or on-base percentage. Still, Perez blasted 27 home runs in both 2017 and 2018 before missing the 2019 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He smacked 11 home runs over 37 games and 156 PA in 2020. His .333 batting average was a fluke, coming with a .375 BABIP, and we can find some fault with the ESPN Fantasy projection of him hitting .272 this season. Prior to 2020, Perez last hit .272 in a full season in 2013. Is he really getting better now, at 30, and safer? I doubt it.
As for Realmuto, his much-awaited spring debut from a fractured thumb figured to occur Sunday but then he missed the game due to general soreness, a "catch-all" term that tells us nothing, but creates worry. Realmuto is not likely to handle a regular catching role in the first few weeks of the season. He remains my top catcher off the draft board but there is no way I would invest in Round 6. Catchers get hurt more than other hitters do and they play less. San Diego Padres starter Austin Nola is dealing with a fractured finger, too. Will these fellows get healthier as they age? Re-read that sentence and you know the answer. Long-term commitments to catchers are not wise.
Anyway, that is plenty of time spent on catching and for more, listen to Tristan H. Cockcroft and I debate the issue on the Monday Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast. Let us continue here with a Monday Stock Watch discussing the movers and shakers from the weekend, because we know you were watching the NCAA Tournament. Here is last week's version.
Stock up
C.J. Cron, 1B, Colorado Rockies: It was hardly a secret that when this floundering organization signed Cron to a minor league deal months ago that it was a golden opportunity for a fantasy sleeper to emerge. Cron is still going outside our top 200, but not for long. He has power, but nothing else, and this is a terrible lineup (and team), even though it gets to play half its games at altitude. For those in deeper formats, Josh Fuentes could be a value pick now, especially if he plays at third base.
Emilio Pagan, RP, San Diego Padres: A weekend San Diego Union-Tribute report claims Pagan may end up opening the season as closer, which was nowhere on the radar for most fantasy managers. Pagan saved 20 games for the 2019 Tampa Bay Rays, so this should not be a total shock, but if it is true, all the picks on Drew Pomeranz (currently dealing with a forearm strain) and Mark Melancon look silly.
Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros: I am not all-in on him bouncing back to previous levels of fantasy awesomeness, but the fact that he looks likely to lead off is a rather good sign, regardless of his underwhelming spring performance. There are good hitters behind him. Perhaps Altuve goes back to stealing bases. Kyle Tucker may also move to center field, signifying that the Myles Straw experiment may already be over.
Others trending up: Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt (get the future Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander now in dynasty!); Steven Matz, SP, Toronto Blue Jays; Mike Soroka, SP, Atlanta Braves; David Bednar, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates; Luis Arraez, 2B, Minnesota Twins; Daulton Varsho, C/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stock down
Will Smith, C, Los Angeles Dodgers: Still one of the top catchers in the fantasy world, but the weekend proclamation that the team intends to cap his starts "for around 90 games" is a very big deal. He is in a timeshare with Austin Barnes and perhaps others! If Smith is not among the top 10 catchers in plate appearances, he might find it difficult to be an actual top 10 catcher in fantasy. Give me volume options instead.
Carlos Carrasco, SP, New York Mets: What a shame. He fights back from leukemia and everyone loves him and now he tears a hamstring and we might not see him until June. This saddens me. Carrasco might not be a top-50 starter in drafts now.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals: Yeah, not a ton of news, folks. In retrospect, it was ridiculous so many people wasted their time discussing Witt potentially making the Royals last week. He could debut in the majors this season, but may have to skip Double- and Triple-A to do so. I do not see it, especially in ESPN standard leagues with small benches. Los Angeles Angels outfielder Jo Adell got the demotion as well. He could be up in May, if he performs. Witt, not likely.
Others trending down: Sonny Gray, SP, Cincinnati Reds; Jose LeClerc, RP, Texas Rangers; Casey Mize, SP, Detroit Tigers; Miles Mikolas, SP, St. Louis Cardinals; Franchy Cordero, OF, Boston Red Sox; Scott Kingery, 2B/OF, Philadelphia Phillies.