The No. 5 first baseman on ESPN's Player Rater hit .316 with 10 home runs and 42 RBIs over 50 games in the abbreviated 2020 season. Do you know who he is? I'll give you a hint: He plays for the New York Mets. Pete Alonso? Nope, not with that batting average! Keith Hernandez? Not unless we're talking about 35 years ago. This first baseman/outfielder can achieve this kind of offensive success again, and yet, in terms of ESPN ADP, he is going in Round 14!
Nobody should be surprised that Dominic Smith has hit .299 and slugged .571 over the past two seasons because he was once a top prospect -- one who simply needed time to develop. Smith finished sixth among all hitters in OPS last season and fifth in OPS+. None of this was a fluke. Despite there being no universal designated hitter (although I still have my fingers crossed that decision changes soon) the Mets need his potent and apparently underrated bat in their lineup regularly. Smith will play left field, and for fantasy purposes, he will hit.
We should not expect Smith to hit quite like Alonso, though, for few players possess that much power. Smith, however, can clearly hit for a high average, and I can certainly make the case that Smith is the better fantasy option because of it, even if Alonso is a safer selection for both power and playing time. Why can't both New York first basemen be awesome in fantasy? Alonso can hit another 50 home runs and Smith can hit 50 points higher in batting average with 25 or so blasts. It sounds like a win-win for just about everybody.
I always like writing my annual "Do Draft" list more than the one about players to avoid (my "Do Not Draft" list), not only because it is far more positive, but also because it is easier for those people who skip over the intro to understand. Anyway, who wants to rip on baseball players? I cannot hit a baseball 500 feet or throw one 100 mph, and everyone in the major leagues is skilled, although some more so than others. However, skills are only part of the equation.
What is also key is that you evaluate which ADP values make sense and which values do not for fantasy purposes. Perhaps you have noticed I rank Smith exceedingly well, albeit a bit after Alonso. Yes, I believe Smith can hit over six months in 2021 the way he did over two months in 2020. I believe he is easily a top-100 fantasy option for both roto and points formats. I believe. Ya gotta believe!
Regardless, we're going to switch up the format a bit for my "positive" draft list, in part because there really are so many players I target -- certainly more than I avoid. Let's go position by position:
First base: Luke Voit, New York Yankees; Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels; Colin Moran, Pittsburgh Pirates
Thoughts: If you can get Atlanta Braves star Freddie Freeman, of course, go for it. I am going to try to be a bit less obvious. Voit is a legit power hitter, and he finished 2020 behind only Freeman and Jose Abreu at the position on the Player Rater. He can do so again. ... Walsh hit .337 and blasted nine home runs in September. I certainly think he can hit .250 with 30 home runs in 2021. ... Moran is that late corner infield pick capable of 25 home runs, and I seem to be waiting a while to fill my first base and corner spots in drafts/auctions.
Second base: Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers; Nick Solak, Texas Rangers; Tommy La Stella, San Francisco Giants; Ty France, Seattle Mariners
Thoughts: Muncy might never win a batting title, but he is not a .192 hitter, either. He is more like a .250 hitter who was on pace for another 35-home run season. That is reliability, and he offers you eligibility at first, second or third base. ... Solak might never win a Gold Glove at any position, but he rakes. There is a potential 20-homer, 15-steal season lurking. ... La Stella could lead off for the Giants, and with his plate discipline, the batting average is safe. I see 20 home runs, too. ... France can hit any pitching, and if the Mariners give him 500 PA, he should sail past 20 home runs.
Shortstop: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays; Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves; Didi Gregorius, Philadelphia Phillies
Thoughts: I'm not feeling much love at this position after the top 100 or so, so I tend to get one or two shortstops early. Why not? More than a few of them not named Adalberto Mondesi combine power with speed anyway. Bichette is the last of a wild group of seven shortstops in my top 30 overall -- and a potential 25/25 option. ... Swanson was on his way to a 25-homer season with double-digit steals, and now he enters his prime potentially hitting in between Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freeman. ... Gregorius hit 27 home runs in 2018. I think he can match it this season, and he goes in the middle rounds.
Third base: Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals; Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies; Gio Urshela, New York Yankees; Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Thoughts: No, I am not particularly concerned about Arenado, a fantastic defender and hitter, leaving Coors Field. He will be terrific in his new home, but he seems to keep dropping in ADP anyway. ... Bohm was terrific as a rookie, and while some are concerned about his power potential and a move off the hot corner, do not be. He can hit .290 with 25 home runs this season. ... Urshela can do this as well. Look at his stats over the past two seasons. ... Hayes might not hit .300 again, unless he keeps getting BABIP luck (a .450 mark as a rookie!) but I never assume that good hitters who showed only modest power in the minors can't develop power as they age. Hayes is legit.
Outfield: Starling Marte, Miami Marlins; Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros; Trent Grisham, San Diego Padres; Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Toronto Blue Jays; Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals; Alex Verdugo, Boston Red Sox; Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles; Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners; Leody Taveras, Texas Rangers; Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners; Myles Straw, Houston Astros
Thoughts: There are so many names here, so I will just note that, for roto leagues, if you want to compete in stolen bases, there are indeed outfielders who hit for power and run. I targeted Marte/Grisham in the recent LABR NL-only auction for this reason. ... Tucker is a future star, as are Carlson and Kelenic. It is OK to be overaggressive in securing them, even in redraft formats. ... Need power? Gurriel has it. Mancini still has it. A healthy Haniger has it. ... Straw claims he can steal 50 bases with proper playing time. There's no power here, but as a fifth outfielder, I am in.
Designated hitter: Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins; Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Indians
Thoughts: Ignore Cruz due to his age at your own peril. I could have led this article with him, but I think I do that every year! Cruz has been one of the best hitters in the league over the past five seasons, with the most home runs among all players and with little hint of eroding skills. I rank him in my top 50, but he will likely go later in your leagues. Invest with confidence. ... Reyes has 40-homer upside for sure.
Starting pitcher: Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox; Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers; Carlos Carrasco, New York Mets; Sonny Gray, Cincinnati Reds; Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs; Zack Greinke, Houston Astros; Chris Paddack, San Diego Padres; Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals; Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners; Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies; Zach Davies, Chicago Cubs; Jose Urquidy, Houston Astros; Marcus Stroman, New York Mets; Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Thoughts: It's not like I avoid the other top-20 pitchers, or else they would not make my top 20, but these are the names that keep showing up on my teams. Lynn is a durable strikeout option who should pile on the wins. His season-ending 3.32 ERA was actually just 2.53 before his disastrous 10-run outing in late September. ... Hendricks does not pile up the whiffs, but we love his ERA, WHIP and perhaps most critically, his consistency. ... Greinke, as well as Carrasco, are hardly too old. ... Corbin should bounce back and flirt with 200 strikeouts. ... Gonzales goes deep into games and wins them without hurting other numbers. ... Stroman sat out 2020 but not because of injury. It is about value with these pitchers, and he is a bargain after Round 20.
Relief pitcher: Raisel Iglesias, Los Angeles Angels; Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros; Archie Bradley, Philadelphia Phillies; Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals; Mark Melancon, San Diego Padres; Peter Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays; Jonathan Hernandez, Texas Rangers; Chris Martin, Atlanta Braves
Thoughts: Iglesias is durable and one of the few second-tier closers sans question marks. I keep avoiding the top fellows due to their top-75 status in ADP and end up getting Iglesias later. ... Pressly seems to have little competition. ... Bradley does, but I think he handles the role over Hector Neris and thrives. ... Gallegos, Fairbanks, Hernandez and Martin might have to wait for saves, but they should aid fantasy teams with good innings, too. ... Melancon is clearly there to close, though you might not like his other stats.