Recent injuries to multiple members of the back end of the top-25 starting pitcher ranks might influence fantasy baseball managers towards the tactic of drafting one -- if not two -- members of the "ace" positional class, and then going with a "cheap with upside" approach to the rest of their staff. It's a viable strategy considering the pitching landscape entering 2021. It's also potentially dangerous to significantly swing one's gameplan merely as a reaction to spring news.
News regarding Carlos Carrasco is the most recent and the most detrimental, in terms of fantasy value. He was diagnosed late Thursday with a high-grade hamstring tear, one projected to cost him a 6-8 week absence. From a straight scheduling standpoint, that will likely cost him between 24-36 New York Mets regular-season games. That number does not account for either early-season weather postponements or the possibility that the timetable refers only to when he might resume competitive activity (i.e. the start of a rehabilitation stint). It also assumes no setbacks in his recovery. Carrasco will miss anywhere from 5-10 starts, with the prospect of additional missed time. Throw in the fact that this injury came while he was doing his running after completing his first simulated game since battling elbow discomfort and the concern only heightens.
My offseason research surfaced evidence that Carrasco had actually been more durable than perceived from 2015-20. Putting aside a 2019 that was impacted by his battle with leukemia, Carrasco had averaged 29.5 starts per 162 team games in the other six seasons. Elbow soreness was a minor issue early in 2020, and this March setback heightens the again-valid injury question. Carrasco had reached a rankings high point of SP20 this preseason. I dropped him to SP25 as he worked through elbow issues that threatened a brief, season-opening IL stint, but now he's my SP50 -- and even at that number I'll probably be hesitant to draft him in my March 20-21 weekend leagues, knowing that his value is currently as uncertain as it'll be all spring.
As of Friday morning, Carrasco's ESPN ADP (average draft position) had dropped by 15.2 spots, sixth-most among all players. You can be sure that drop will only get larger over the next seven days. I've lowered him more than 100 overall rankings spots, so I'd expect there will be a day next week where his ADP decline reaches 75-plus.
As you head into your weekend drafts, let's continue the walk through all 30 spring training camps, examining the news and draft trends you can exploit. In addition to today's edition, look for the same examination heading into the March 27-28 weekend (the final one before Opening Day).
More SP injuries of note
Sticking with the top-25 starters, Sonny Gray's recent back issues present enough of a worry that he dropped approximately two overall rounds in my rankings, although his ADP didn't reflect a similar level of concern and he has resumed playing catch. There's no need for panic yet, but the resurfacing of his September 2020 issue, the same one that caused his walk rate to balloon to 16.2% in four September starts (about 7% higher than his 37 starts from 2019-August 2020) shouldn't be ignored. I'd like to see Gray make a (relatively) successful Cactus League start before being proactively selecting him within the top 30 at his position.
Stephen Strasburg, who was coming off carpal tunnel syndrome surgery entering spring training, is scheduled for a four-inning simulated game on Friday, potentially giving weekend drafters more of a window into his current health. He left a March 14 Grapefruit League start with a strained muscle in his left calf, causing a three-spot drop in his ADP over the past week (fifth-most among starting pitchers). That's a minimal shift and arguably an overreaction. To be clear, if you're sticking firmly to the ESPN rankings, his placement SP25 (representing a two-spot improvement due to the drops of Carrasco and Dinelson Lamet) was based on Strasburg's 24.5 starts per 162 team games over the past six seasons. In other words, his heightened injury risk is already baked into the ranking. His gradually declining fastball velocity presents an additional worry, and that's what should keep him out of the top-20 SP ranks, but I see this as a potential buying opportunity.
Further down the rankings, and certainly outside the top-25 SP, Kwang-Hyun Kim missed a March 13 start due to back tightness, an injury that cements his draft status outside of the ESPN mixed-league universe. However, the injury opens up streaming opportunities from St. Louis Cardinals pitchers who might be tasked with fill-in duty. John Gant, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Johan Oviedo and Jake Woodford are now the primary contenders for the team's Nos. 4-5 rotation spots. Still, none of those guys are draftable. Again, this is about Cardinals pitchers being viable streaming candidates. However, one option who might soon be in the draft mix is Adam Wainwright, who has a 1.98 ERA and 26.5% strikeout rate in four spring starts.
The injury bug hits the Padres offense
Recent injuries to Trent Grisham (hamstring) and Austin Nola (fractured finger) set the Padres offense back somewhat, largely because both serve in a role difficult for the team to replace from its current roster. Grisham is traditionally San Diego's leadoff man against right-handed starters -- and he even got a March 5 spring start against left-hander Connor Menez. He brings elite center field defense. Meanwhile, Nola is the team's projected starting catcher, probably getting the bulk of the non-Yu Darvish starts, as Victor Caratini should continue to serve as Darvish's personal catcher.
Grisham's hamstring strain was a Grade 1, which doesn't rule him out for Opening Day but does present some short IL-stint risk. I've dropped him from OF16 to OF18, with Michael Conforto and Nick Castellanos being more attractive selections. Yet, I am still pro-Grisham, giving him one of his more generous rankings within the industry. Nola, meanwhile, hasn't yet been ruled out for Opening Day and is even testing the injury on defense, though it's still unclear whether he, too, will require a season-opening IL stint. Formerly my C9, he's now my C12, with the upshot being that he's a tougher "wait on your catcher" ESPN pick with the prospect of missed time. Don't overreact, though, as there are worse times to wait on a short IL stint than at the season's start, when the list isn't filled with elite names. You can afford to stash Nola (or Grisham) there briefly.
The big movers in ESPN's ADP
C.J. Cron leapt a league-leading 27.7 ADP spots within the past seven days to 197th overall (212.6 average), more accurately reflecting the generous, 1B20 I've had for him recently. Cron's status as the projected starting first baseman for the Colorado Rockies is seemingly the league's worst-kept secret, even as the team hints that Josh Fuentes remains in the positional battle alongside Greg Bird, who is probably truly aiming for a left-handed pinch hitting role. Cron has batted .323/.344/.581 in 32 spring plate appearances, and Statcast has measured him with three batted balls of 110-plus mph exit velocity (and seven more of 100-plus), raising reminders of his 55-homer, 2018-19 form. There's a case to make that he's a wiser pick than either Miguel Sano or Ryan Mountcastle.
Framber Valdez's 80.9 ADP slide was the majors' largest. That comes as no shock considering the fractured left ring finger that's likely to sideline him for much of 2021, though Wednesday's news had him possibly avoiding surgery and returning at some point during the summer. Jared Walsh's drop was "only" 25.9 spots. For Walsh, this appears to be more of a correction adhering to the rankings, as he's my 1B24, and within a fluid tier of corner infield types with whom you're OK, but not eager, to draft.
Prospective rookie Jarred Kelenic (up 17.5, second-most) returned from a knee injury on Wednesday, restoring confidence in his big-league arrival before April's conclusion. He should arrive on your radar once the top-40 outfielders are off the board (he's my OF50).
Dominic Smith (down 16.3, fifth-most) won't return from a sore wrist before Sunday, but I see his drop as more of an overcorrection for the lack of a National League designated hitter, meaning that he's slipping firmly into "value" territory.
Closer hopeful Jordan Hicks (up 8.7, eighth-most) continues to build buzz in his positional battle, despite his not striking out any of seven batters faced while walking three in his two spring appearances thus far. I'm still not convinced the job is his, as Giovanny Gallegos remains the better Cardinals reliever value. I genuinely can't choose how I feel from day to day about this pair from the RP22-27 range because of the competition's uncertainty.
Big springs mean big moves
Following up on my Wednesday roundtable note, Shohei Ohtani got a healthy, two-overall-rounds bump in my rankings. He's now a 15th-rounder in ESPN leagues and my SP38 (he's still DH6, if you prefer that angle). He has been aggressively drafted in ESPN leagues during the past week, going 111th overall (121.4 on average), but saw only a seven-spot NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) bump comparing March 8-14 to March 15-19 (158th overall in the latter). As Ohtani's value ranges wildly depending upon the format (daily or weekly transactions, points or roto, etc.), he's going to be one of the most important players about which to develop strong opinions. I still see him as a relative value, though that window appears to be closing.
A peek at next week's movers?
To wrap things up, let's take a look at players clearly "off the radar" in ESPN formats who have a realistic chance at either moving within or just outside the draftable ranks in the next week. For those with March 20-21 drafts, these could serve good final-round picks if they fill a need.
There's talk that the Chicago White Sox have engaged in long-term contract talks with prospect Andrew Vaughn, à la Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert before him. This has inspired some confidence that Vaughn might well be in the Opening Day lineup. Such a promise would vault him into the top 15 of fantasy first basemen.
An injury to Mike Fiers (back) grants a golden opportunity for A.J. Puk to slide into the Oakland Athletics rotation, and the rookie's next start (likely on Monday or Tuesday), could prove to be a turning point in his draft-day value. Puk, with the promise of a rotation spot, would warrant top-75 fantasy starter status even though he'll begin the season as RP-eligible only.
Hints dropped on the radio by Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore indicate that Bobby Witt Jr., a .289/.325/.526 hitter in 40 spring plate appearances, could realistically make a push for the team's starting second base job. It's still a distant longshot claim, but the next few days could provide critical to that decision.
Bobby Dalbec has five homers and a .926 slugging percentage in his 31 PAs, though 13 of them have also resulted in strikeouts. He's an all-or-nothing prospect, but if his spring helps him lock down the Boston's everyday first base job (which, bundled with second base, was expected to be a fluid carousel including Michael Chavis and Enrique Hernandez), that would vault Dalbec into draft-worthy status in a position thin on young talent.