Here are Eric Karabell, Tristan H. Cockcroft, AJ Mass, Kyle Soppe, Todd Zola and Mike Sheets to discuss some of the top storylines from the spring and whether to believe in them come April.
Eric: I'm buying into Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being in the best shape of his life and having a monster breakout season. Vlad looks fantastic so far. On Tuesday he ripped a single, pair of doubles and a triple against the Phillies and while some will say it was never about his size but him hitting too many grounders, I bet he fixes everything in 2021. Nobody's saying he becomes a top fantasy option tomorrow, a .300-hitting, 35-homer slugger so soon, but I'm not betting against it, either. Vlad keeps moving up my rankings and, honestly, if you ask me for any other player in the best shape of his life, I can't think of anyone!
AJ: With all apologies to my friend from high school, Charles, who happens to be the biggest Pirates fan I know (and pretty much the only one I know), I'm 100% buying the predictions that Pittsburgh is going to be the worst team in baseball this season. Vegas has their win total at 58, a good 21 1/2 games out of fourth place in the NL Central. Gone from last year's team are Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove. One of the most recognizable new faces is backup catcher Tony Wolters -- and that recognition may only be because of the viral video from over the weekend where he struck out swinging at a pitch that nailed him on the inner thigh. All that said, I'm also buying that Ke'Bryan Hayes will be a fantasy force this season. The young third baseman is currently hitting .417 this spring. Playing on a team where there's no pressure to win now, and with stabilizing veteran voice Todd Frazier now around to mentor the rookie, Hayes is almost certain to be a bright spot for the Pirates in what should be a very dismal season.
Mike: I'm buying into the low- and mid-level starters who are displaying increased velocity this spring. In 2020, Mike Minor was being drafted inside the top 150. After a down season that saw him post a 5.56 ERA across 56 2/3 innings, he's not even being drafted in the top 250 this year. The culprit? Minor averaged just 90.6 mph with his fastball last season, a significant dip after he sat 92.6 mph with the pitch in 2019. What has me feeling optimistic about the veteran lefty is that he's been consistently hitting 94 mph this spring. Assuming the added velo holds, Minor should be closer to the guy who posted a 3.59 ERA with 200 K's in 2019, offering some nice profit for where he's being drafted. Mike Foltynewicz is another late-round name to keep in mind. Prior to 2020, Foltynewicz's fastball never averaged less than 94.9 mph. However, the pitch collapsed all the way down to 90.5 mph last season, which eventually led to the Braves designating the right-hander for assignment in August. Now with the Rangers on a one-year, prove-it deal, Folty has rediscovered his lost velocity, consistently hitting 94-95 mph in his first spring outing and topping out at 97 mph. The former All-Star, who posted a 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 in 2018, is essentially free in drafts, making him a nice dart throw in the last couple of rounds.
Tristan: After a dismal 2020 during which he batted .190 with a 28.6% strikeout rate, while walking half of the 16 hitters he faced on the mound, Shohei Ohtani was understandably a player many fantasy managers were terrified to draft entering Spring Training. His spring, however, has presented us with countless reminders: That he's capable of approaching 100 mph on the radar gun while at peak pitching form, and providing substantial power with good speed when he's right on offense, things that seemed to have been forgotten at the onset of camp, judging by the offsite early ADP sources. I'm not saying I completely believe that Ohtani is back to the form that made him the No. 66 overall pick in last July's drafts, but there's little doubt that injury luck would allow him to return at least that valuation... while the hammering that the Chicago White Sox delivered him this past Saturday served a reminder that his downside remains steep. I really don't think anything has changed for Ohtani between last Opening Day and today; he's top-100 capable, but probably belonging a couple rounds outside of that.
Todd: Well, I'm not quite ready to induct Bobby Witt Jr. into the Hall of Fame. It happens every year. Some very smart people get caught in the hype wave and chase the shiny new toy. Maybe Witt Jr. makes me eat my words, breaks camp as the Royals shortstop and is the unanimous choice for AL Rookie of the Year. The thing is, I can copy/paste the last couple of sentences, change the name and say the same thing every season -- and only regret it once every 10 years or so. Something else I am not buying is the new pitching paradigm where it will be so hard to accrue starting pitcher innings. Yes, totals will be down, in some cases significantly, but leagues will still be able to meet the minimum to qualify for points in ERA and WHIP. One of the signs for this is how much teams paid for seemingly lesser starting pitchers in free agency (though Rick Porcello may not agree). Using a standard starting pitcher for five or six frames is still Plan A. Plan B is cleverly deploying an opener and primary pitcher to take advantage of platoon edges. Plan C is Plan B, but out of desperation with no process, just parading arms to the mound until the game is over.
Kyle: I'm buying the selling of pitchers that are already banged up. Forget the pandemic for a minute... quality innings are increasingly difficult to mine. That's just a fact. I'm chasing raw inning count as much as anything when putting together my staff this draft season, so why roll the dice on starters that are already having issues? From a strategic standpoint, I expect the free agency pool to be weaker this year than in the past as managers scramble to work around inevitable health/protocol pauses, thus weakening the quality of replacement player you fill your roster with when a Chris Sale or a Stephen Strasburg lands on the injured list.