It is hardly a surprise that a San Diego Padres relief pitcher is third among his peers on the ESPN Fantasy Player Rater and near the top in points formats. The surprise is that Kirby Yates is not this pitcher.
Lefty Drew Pomeranz announced himself as a legitimate fantasy option last season, when he posted a 1.88 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 28⅔ innings in a relief role, after nearly a decade of inconsistency and underachieving as a starter. The Brewers sent a good prospect in Mauricio Dubon to the Giants for his services last July, and he thrived as a setup man for Josh Hader. The Padres rewarded him with a four-year contract last winter, expecting him to thrive setting up right-hander Yates.
The 11-8 Padres, however, have needed Pomeranz to close as well while Yates overcomes what the team calls general soreness. Yates, who has permitted runs in three of five outings but got a save in his past two, has not pitched in nearly a week, while Pomeranz saved the Monday and Tuesday wins sans incident. His 7⅔ innings are nearly perfect, with one hit allowed, 10 whiffs, nary a run and a 0.52 WHIP. Who is the closer?
Padres manager Jayce Tingler claims Yates remains his closer when he is healthy enough to do so, but fantasy managers should add Pomeranz as well, regarding each of these veterans as top-10 fantasy relief pitchers. It is rare, certainly, but Pomeranz is what Hader was a few seasons ago, before Brewers manager Craig Counsell had little choice but to give him all the save chances. Pomeranz -- throwing his fastball more than 2 mph faster than ever and offering a harder, tighter curveball -- is simply dominating, and fantasy managers should think about all the pitching stats, not just saves.
I think Yates, the No. 3 reliever selected in ESPN average live drafts -- behind Hader and Liam Hendriks -- can still earn this valuable designation. Be patient. Do not be patient in adding Pomeranz, waiting to see what happens here. Do it now. Frankly, it seems likely Yates could use an injured list stint at some point. His struggles remind us why closers are poor draft-day investments -- and even poorer ones in keeper formats -- but dropping him without further clarity would be a mistake.
My prediction for these pitchers is that Yates returns this weekend, saves a win and starts getting his numbers back to lofty expectations, with a final ERA around 2.50 and myriad more strikeouts than innings. Let us say, for argument's sake, a pair of wins, 15 saves and 30 strikeouts in 19 innings. Pomeranz finishes with an ERA around 2.00 and a better K rate, with four wins and 10 saves. Congrats to the Padres for giving fantasy managers a pair of top-10 relievers!
In other relief pitcher news
-- Padres right-hander Emilio Pagan was the Tampa Bay closer last season, and while he has had a few rough outings so far, he has been perfect in August and is one of eight pitchers tied for the lead with five holds. I know many of you participate in leagues with holds or saves/holds as a category. The Padres are good, and Pagan should continue accruing in the category.
-- Oakland boasts three of the eight top holds pitchers, a testimony to its success and clear delineation of roles. Lefties Jake Diekman and T.J. McFarland have equally split 14⅔ scoreless innings, though Diekman is the one missing bats. Add him for holds, as well as right-hander Yusmeiro Petit, who I predicted would pile on the wins as well.
-- The league saves leader is Yankees fill-in Zack Britton with seven, but fantasy managers remain concerned that Aroldis Chapman will return any day and push him to clear setup duty. They should be. Manager Aaron Boone is not going to have them share the role.
-- Saves are weird. Hader has three saves in two full weeks and 16 team games. Rangers right-hander Rafael Montero came off the injured list less than a week ago and in six team games has four saves. As strongly noted on Thursday's Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast, I think we need to exalt Montero all the way up to top-10 closer status. It happens quickly. Hader remains the No. 1 closer, though.
-- Good luck with that Jose Leclerc contract in future years, Rangers. Montero and Jonathan Hernandez are the top relievers now. Those who equate fantasy value with real-life contracts are often due to repeat mistakes. There is often little correlation.
-- The Astros claim that Roberto Osuna will rest and rehab his ailing elbow and could pitch again this season. I am skeptical. Drop him. I also would try to trade fill-in closer Ryan Pressly. Yeah, I called him a top-10 closer a week ago. It changed quickly. He is not comfortable, lacks command and half his pitches are sliders, so hitters seem to know what is coming. Watch lefty Blake Taylor pick up save chances soon.
-- It is so early, but the top relievers in bWAR are Cubs right-hander Jeremy Jeffress, Blue Jays right-hander Jordan Romano, Astros right-hander Andre Scrubb, Nationals right-hander Tanner Rainey and Pomeranz. In fWAR, it is Rockies right-hander Daniel Bard (what a great story he is!) and a host of others earning half a win, including Romano and Pomeranz. Romano finally permitted his first base hit of the season Wednesday when Marlins catcher Francisco Cervelli hit a ground ball into center field. Add Romano in case closer Anthony Bass has another hiccup. I doubt we see Ken Giles anytime soon.
-- The Cubs have 12 wins but only four saves. Craig Kimbrel has none of them. I do not see this changing. I think Rowan Wick is the closer here.
-- The Pirates have only one save, and from a pitcher (Nick Burdi) who is out for the season. They say Keone Kela comes off the injured list Thursday, but does it matter for fantasy?
-- I think Hansel Robles gets the Angels' closer gig back soon. His velocity has returned, he has four consecutive scoreless outings and he struck out the side Wednesday.
-- I hope Trevor Rosenthal avoids future outings such as Wednesday's, when he walked the bases loaded, his first free passes of the season. He escaped without allowing a run, but still, as with all of us, I suppose, he can only be great with control.
-- I expect Giovanny Gallegos to get save chances this weekend for the Cardinals. This could be like last weekend's Montero going from nothing to awesome closer. Be positive. The Cardinals are playing.
-- Perhaps I have been too quick to presume Rockies reclamation story Daniel Bard cannot take the closer role from Jairo Diaz. Bard used to be a walker. He has 12 strikeouts and no walks so far. Diaz is fine, but I could not help but notice his past four outings have included nary a strikeout. That doesn't bode well.
-- Detroit's Joe Jimenez is not necessarily good, but the save chances are all his. I put Jimenez in a class with Baltimore's Cole Sulser, Toronto's Bass, Diaz, Washington's Daniel Hudson and what the Mariners go with. These fellows will give up runs, but saves are saves.
Recent blogs: Bundy | Urias, Dobnak | Can we rely on Tatis, Judge | Weekend look