The current No. 1 option on the ESPN Player Rater was, on average, merely a fourth-round choice in fantasy baseball live drafts on this site. The reason for his "slide" was mainly because of durability concerns. After all, San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. hit .317 in his age-20 rookie season with 22 home runs and 16 stolen bases in a mere 372 plate appearances. He was awesome, though there were legitimate concerns, starting with a lofty strikeout rate and a likely unsustainable BABIP, both of which still exist. My concern was his staying healthy. He served a pair of injured list stints as a rookie.
When New York Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton hit the injured list over the weekend due to some degree of hamstring malady -- the team did not even wait for the MRI results to move him off their roster -- it was a reminder to fantasy managers that players who are brittle over a six-month campaign are still brittle over a shortened, two-month irregular season. Stanton and his pal Aaron Judge (the No. 2 option on the aforementioned Player Rater) topped that preseason list for me, but Tatis was on it as well.
Anyone can get hurt and, unfortunately, anyone can get the coronavirus and (like the Cardinals) miss a week or two of action whether they have it or not. Still, how to view Tatis is problematic. Now 21, the son of a big-league third baseman from 20 years ago is an electrifying talent seemingly capable of, in a full season, reaching 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases -- and perhaps more. Did we evaluate him wrong by dumping him into Round 4 of our rankings, after older and less versatile players such as J.D. Martinez, Pete Alonso and Judge?
I admit I would have a tough time trading Tatis right now unless it is for a top option, and I do roster him in a few places. Tatis homered four times in the three-game weekend series versus Arizona, and hit six home runs for the week. He leads the league with a 1.226 OPS and nobody has more than the eight home runs both he and Judge boast. However, there is one important differentiator here: Tatis has four stolen bases. Only one big-league player has more. The rest of the top-10 performers in terms of OPS have combined for three steals. Trevor Story is the only other one of the 12 hitters with five-plus home runs with multiple steals.
Determining whether a player is brittle is risky business. Judge played in 112 and 102 games in the previous two seasons, and I think the Stanton injury is a stark reminder that both Yankees outfielders are more prone to injury than most. Judge is obviously a mammoth talent, perhaps the face of the sport. He's a potential first-round pick in future fantasy drafts, but he is brittle until proven otherwise. I would try to trade him now in fantasy.
With Tatis, yeah, I am waffling a bit and I shouldn't since it has been only two-plus weeks of games. However, what if he stays healthy and delivers Mookie Betts numbers for years, or does what Ronald Acuna Jr. did as a rookie? This is a potential generational statistical talent -- if he can stay healthy. I hope he does but nobody knows for sure. Still, good luck prying Tatis from my fantasy teams while he is doing all this.
As for Stanton, please do not act surprised. He was off to a nice start, with half of his hits going for extra bases and a strong walk rate. Remember, Stanton played in only 18 games in 2019 but he did play in nearly all of the games in 2017 and 2018. Perhaps last year was the aberration. Who knows? Keep Stanton in your IL slot for he is a difference maker. Yet, if we do not see him on the field again until September, well, do not be surprised!
I remarked quite flippantly on the Sunday night Fantasy Focus baseball podcast that Mike Tauchman, the natural Yankees replacement for regular playing time, might be better for fantasy if he can keep hitting .300 and stealing bases. Comparing Tauchman, who was very good in 2019, to Stanton or Judge seems quite ridiculous, but fantasy is not about who looks better or hits baseballs 100 feet farther than the fence allows. Tauchman is good, too. Add him. We will probably see either Clint Frazier or Miguel Andujar back in the majors soon, but neither interests me so much.
Other random thoughts from a busy weekend
Go ahead and drop Diamondbacks left-hander Madison Bumgarner in shallow leagues because not only has his decreased velocity been a problem so far, but we also learned on Sunday night that he is dealing with back spasms. Perhaps Bumgarner won't miss any starts and finds the lost velocity, but the Padres clubbed four home runs off him -- and they were not exactly wall-scrapers. Bumgarner posted extreme differences in his home and road ERA in recent seasons and lost that Giants home ballpark as a crutch. Losing velocity is a sign of a bigger issue. I admit I erred on this one, assuming a wily veteran would "find a way" to overcome the obvious reasons for worry.
I will try to resist the urge to drop Cleveland right-hander Zach Plesac because he has performed very well so far and, despite his team-imposed time out, he might still pitch this week. The team sent Plesac home this weekend after he defiantly ignored and violated the league safety protocols, and he must quarantine at home for at least three days. The Indians could skip his rotation spot for 10 days if they desire. This stinks. Plesac is healthy but foolhardy, and it costs everyone.
Speaking of unfortunate behavior, Athletics outfielder Ramon Laureano, only the No. 36 Player Rater option, figures to serve a lengthy suspension for charging the Astros dugout to start a brawl on Sunday. Provoked or not, one rule of baseball in a pandemic is avoiding this type of behavior. Social distancing matters. He did not social distance. The thing is, Laureano will likely appeal the suspension so perhaps he plays all this week. It seems risky to me to keep him active in fantasy, especially with a weekend series in the pitcher paradise of San Francisco awaiting.
Phillies right-hander Spencer Howard debuted on Sunday and he looked the part of potential fantasy helper except, obviously, for the opposite-field home runs clubbed by Acuna and Freddie Freeman. The problem here is that the Phillies have yet to announce whether Howard will remain in the rotation later this week. The love many had for Howard remains, but try to be a bit patient in case the Phillies are slow with clarity. In other pitching prospect news, there's no word on the Padres promoting lefty MacKenzie Gore. Yet.
I do not know whether Rays right-hander Charlie Morton hits the injured list after leaving his Sunday outing prematurely with shoulder inflammation. It seems likely, though, and I would bench him in fantasy this week. Trevor Richards seems to be the likely replacement. Something to remember in dynasty formats: Morton has hinted he might not play after this season. A balky shoulder could accelerate things.
I have a fantasy team in which most of the offense is comprised of Cardinals, Nationals and Phillies. This offense is not doing so well. I do not know whether the Cardinals play this week, but I am at the point where I would drop all of them except Paul Goldschmidt and Jack Flaherty. Sit your Pirates this week -- and not just because their Cardinals series is off. The team is terrible.
In the world of closers (and what a world it is!), it was actually a rather quiet weekend for a change. Rafael Montero came off of the injured list and immediately saved a few Rangers wins. He should rise to the top of the most-added list for relief pitchers soon. ... Rejuvenated Royals right-hander Trevor Rosenthal has whiffed multiple hitters in each of his past three outings, and he is the clear closer now. ... Seth Lugo saved the Sunday Mets win and Edwin Diaz handled the eighth inning, allowing a few hits and getting strikeouts on all three outs. This sounds familiar. I bet Diaz gets another shot to close soon. ... The Nationals have a bullpen problem, yet again, but Sean Doolittle is not going to be the answer. Daniel Hudson probably is, but Tanner Rainey is emerging as a possibility to close. ... James Karinchak sure looks like the future Cleveland closer, but it is still lefty Brad Hand -- for now. Karinchak has to be near the top of any fantasy list for top setup men, though.
Recent blogs: Weekend look | Closer carousel | Replacing Soroka