Sometimes it just feels like baseball cannot have nice things. Twins lefty Rich Hill getting hurt again is hardly a shock, and we figured something was amiss with suddenly wild Angels right-hander Shohei Ohtani, but when Braves right-hander Mike Soroka tore his right Achilles tendon on Monday night, well, that was the topper on a rough pitcher injury day. Soroka fell to the ground after he delivered a third-inning pitch to Mets outfielder J.D. Davis and tried in vain to cover first base. Not only is his 2020 season over, but his 2021 campaign figures to be compromised as well.
Soroka, who turned 23 on Tuesday, missed on a top-20 spot among the top fantasy starters due to a tepid strikeout rate, but everything else looked awesome. A command specialist who limits hard contact, he is 15-6 in his short career with a 2.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and entering Monday night, unlike Hill and Ohtani, he was healthy. This one really stings for the Braves -- who thought Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz and Cole Hamels would lead a playoff rotation and who now have none of them active. But it also stings for fantasy managers who had made Soroka the No. 30 starter in ESPN average live drafts.
Cleveland right-hander Zach Plesac, Cubs right-hander Tyler Chatwood and Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland make up the top three starting pitchers on ESPN's most-added list, and I concur with their promise, in that order. I still prefer Blue Jays rookie Nate Pearson to all of them and value Cleveland right-hander Aaron Civale similarly to his colleague Plesac. I want to see more of Astros right-hander Cristian Javier, Tigers right-hander Spencer Turnbull and Yankees lefty Jordan Montgomery, each young and full of promise, but all these pitchers are reasonable additions in mixed formats. It is a season full of hidden asterisks, so just drop the player, find another and hope that team does not miss a random week.
The desperate Braves might need to be more aggressive with their young pitchers, or succumb to relying on Josh Tomlin and Jhoulys Chacin, which seems like obvious trouble. Lefty Max Fried is the nominal ace, and he is off to an excellent start after a promising 2019 breakout, and lefty Sean Newcombe figures to remain in the rotation. It's tough to make a case in a mixed league for right-handers Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright, though prospect Ian Anderson would warrant Pearson-like attention -- or perhaps more like Spencer Howard-like notice -- if he gets the call.
For those wondering about Soroka in 2021 -- it's never too early to look ahead, especially with this irregular season -- there is precedence for quick pitcher recoveries from this injury, and the Braves know it well. Then-Atlanta closer Jason Grilli tore his left Achilles in July 2015, pitched in the following spring training and was ready for Opening Day, though he struggled the first few weeks. One would assume the Braves will be more cautious here, and Soroka did injure his push-off leg, which presents a different challenge. Figure we must rank Soroka outside the top 40 starting pitchers initially, projecting roughly 25 starts.
As for Hill and Ohtani, as noted above, these are not surprises. Hill, rostered in 57% of ESPN standard leagues, has a reputation for rarely pitching poorly but also for rarely pitching enough. He made 13 starts for last season's Dodgers, but he is 40, so give him a break. Hill made one start for this season's Twins before his shoulder barked, and while he could return next week, figure on more missed outings this season. I do not think it is worth it to wait it out in a mixed league, but he did throw five shutout frames in his lone outing and his team scores runs in bushels.
Ohtani has walked half the hitters he has faced this season -- with irregular and concerning velocity drops -- and the Angels figure to keep him off the mound the rest of the irregular season. Yep, move on! The club says 4-6 weeks before he starts a throwing program, but Ohtani was already pitching only once per week. Waiting for mid-September for this lack of clarity in performance seems foolish. Keep Ohtani around as a hitter, though, because while there should be no restrictions on that activity, and this is a five-category fantasy batsman with top-50 overall upside just in that capacity, the Angels could be cautious in this respect as well.
After all, top prospect Jo Adell got the call on Monday and could debut Tuesday in Seattle, but how does he fit in? If Ohtani sits out a few games, then struggling Justin Upton moves to designated hitter. Mike Trout returns from his paternity leave and Brian Goodwin is hitting great, so the Adell promotion could be about Ohtani or Upton or maybe it's just because Adell, 21, boasts big power and can help right away. Keep an eye on his strikeout rate, which was elevated in the minors, but there is no question about the power potential, and he can steal bases when so inclined. Add him right away in case he is special, but I still think the Cardinals' Dylan Carlson is the better fantasy option for 2020, should that franchise get to play baseball again.
Here are some other random thoughts
The Pirates are hitting .187 collectively, and I am starting to wonder about all their hitters from a fantasy standpoint, even first baseman Josh Bell. Remember, Bell was decidedly worse after the All-Star break in 2019, hitting .233 with a slugging percentage down more than 200 points from the first half. Is this a continuation of that? Bryan Reynolds looks bad too, and Colin Moran, bless his heart, is off to a powerful start, but I think we know it is foolish to count on him. Those in daily formats must think about the likes of Randy Dobnak, Matthew Boyd and even Ivan Nova, available pitchers likely to face Pittsburgh this week.
It was only one game, but White Sox outfielder and new leadoff hitter Luis Robert drew two walks and stole two bases Monday, and I had briefly wondered if this is already a top-10 fantasy outfielder. Need to see if pitchers learn how to deal with him, but so far, they have not. Speaking of White Sox, I had little interest in lefty Carlos Rodon, but he left his outing with shoulder soreness, and again, why are we surprised? Rodon averaged 13 starts over the past three seasons, and he was not Rich Hill in the ERA or WHIP column while doing it.
As for the world of closers, Padres right-hander Kirby Yates permitted a Cody Bellinger home run to start the ninth inning Monday but then struck out the side against the Dodgers. Yates is on the most-dropped list because he entered Monday with nary a save, which seems like a poor reason to move on from last year's top closer after one week, but whatevs. Invest with confidence. ... The Cubs gave Rowan Wick another save, but it sounds like Craig Kimbrel is not out of chances. Even managers can show bias due to name value and career achievements. Still, I'd drop Kimbrel for Wick in fantasy. ... Jairo Diaz had a messy ninth inning for his second Rockies save, but it was not all his fault. Carlos Estevez looks just as good, if not better, as the setup option, so if Diaz sputters, Estevez is the replacement, and I might value them similarly.
Recent blogs: Dom Smith | Ohtani, closers | Madrigal | Pearson, Javier | Cut (most) Marlins | Free agent adds