A funny thing happened on Wednesday while the baseball world (including, if not especially, the fantasy one) gushed about Blue Jays right-hander Nate Pearson's impressive big-league debut versus Max Scherzer and the champion Nationals. Astros right-hander Cristian Javier struck out all three Dodgers he faced in the first inning, ultimately fanning eight overall in 5 2/3 frames. Javier permitted only a Corey Seager home run and, like Pearson, Scherzer, and myriad others, earned a no-decision. However, Javier is the one that added significant value.
After all, while praise for Pearson is justifiably everywhere -- and we have strongly recommended this top pitching prospect for months, predicting immediate success and enjoying it when it happened on Wednesday -- it was Javier who led all the minor leagues with a 1.74 ERA last season. He also struck out 13.5 hitters per nine innings. His WHIP was a mere 0.96 over 113 2/3 innings, across three levels. The Astros debuted him for a relief inning over the weekend against Seattle and then started him for injured ace Justin Verlander. Now, the Astros, who have already debuted seven pitchers in merely a week of games, lost in 13 innings. Still, it certainly seems like they've found a worthy rotation replacement.
So, where was yours truly in predicting this sudden greatness, you might ask? That's a fair question, to some extent. Javier threw in only two games and 11 innings at Triple-A Round Rock and, barring injuries to rotation members such as Verlander, it seemed unlikely the international signee from the Dominican Republic would see immediate, relevant (i.e., not in the bullpen) big league work. Well, everything is different this truncated campaign. The Astros can obviously win games and the composed Javier shined on Wednesday, not by blowing triple-digit heat past flummoxed hitters the way Pearson does, but with a fastball in the low-90s. He did it by changing speeds and keeping left-handed hitters off-balance with his curveball. He did it with command and exceptional deception.
Pearson averaged better than 96 mph with his fastball in five shutout innings against the Nationals and, on a pure "stuff" level, he is fantastic. Few hurlers throw regularly with such speed, which worries some people because, well, injuries tend to happen to the hardest of throwers. Still, I have shares of Pearson all over. Well, I am adding Javier as well. The Astros have him on schedule to face the Diamondbacks next week and, hopefully, for the week after that against the Giants and Mariners. That's kind of nice, right? This is not some surprise prospect. We knew about the big numbers, but many of us also liked Jose Urquidy and Josh James. Now, I like Javier more.
As for the next pitchers ready to make their first big league starts, it sure looks like Philadelphia will promote Spencer Howard soon, though not this weekend because the virus has cost the Phillies a bunch of games. By the end of Saturday, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler could have started four of the team's five games! Still, a doubleheader with the Yankees looms next week, as do more Vince Velasquez outings -- and we know how poorly those will go. I implored listeners to the Fantasy Focus Baseball Podcast -- yep, we still record twice per week -- to add Pearson weeks ago. Get Howard now! It might take longer for Padres lefty MacKenzie Gore and his pal right-hander Luis Patino, Yankees right-hander Clarke Schmidt and any of the young Tigers, but try to stash them in leagues with deeper benches as well.
I should mention that Dodgers right-hander Dustin May, who opposed Javier and also permitted only one run, is not the same as Javier in terms of perception. We all know May, and he is rostered in around 50% of standard leagues (Javier is at 7%). May was inefficient on Wednesday, needing 76 pitches to get 10 outs, albeit, like Javier, versus a top lineup. May permitted seven hits over 4 1/3 innings on Opening Day, on little notice to replace Clayton Kershaw. Sure, the Giants were not exactly hammering baseballs all over and I like May a lot. However, I also believe the Dodgers, even with another predictable Alex Wood malady, offer him no guarantee of regular rotation work.
Random thoughts
Speaking of pitching, the 4-1 Rockies lead baseball with a 1.84 ERA. Right-hander German Marquez mowed down the Athletics over six innings in their park Wednesday. OK, the first Coors Field series starts Friday against the Padres. I'm not trying to be negative or pessimistic, but to me nothing has changed in terms of evaluating Marquez and Jon Gray for fantasy. Keep rocking the low ERA at home and convince me about the rest.
What is Zach Plesac doing striking out 11 hitters with nary a walk on Wednesday, one day after Aaron Civale fanned nine? OK, so perhaps the White Sox are going to strike out a million times this season but the Indians, with a 2.13 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in six games, look awesome on the mound. Removing Adam Plutko, who started in Game 2 of a doubleheader, the five starting pitchers have 50 strikeouts in 33 innings. By the way, it was a bad inning for left-handed closer Brad Hand. I want to see who would replace him if he is hurt: James Karinchak or Cameron Hill? I think it might be Hill.
It's great news for the Braves that outfielder Nick Markakis has changed his mind about opting out for the season, but let's not all run out to the waiver wire to sign a player who has hit only single-digit home runs in two of the past three seasons and has stolen just three bases total in four seasons. Yes, batting average and durability matter -- and I'd alter my thinking in a points league or other format that rewards walks -- but his return basically means nothing more than Matt Adams loses playing time. Sure, that "matters," but in fantasy, not to be mean, meh.
By my crude math, the grand total of stolen bases for catchers entering Thursday games is three, and two of them came thanks to Rangers third baseman (but eligible at catcher!) Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The Giants' Tyler Heineman has the other one. Perhaps you do not care if a catcher steals a few bases, but in a deep fantasy league, you should. I remain intrigued by Kiner-Falefa, who is following the Josh Donaldson path from catcher to third base. However, he seemingly lacks any semblance of power and, with the Texas ballpark playing like Yellowstone, we should be even more skeptical. Still, do the Rangers see something here? I see a likely top-20 catcher now, thanks to playing time and the occasional swipe.
In the latest news about closers, the Twins finally unveiled lefty Taylor Rogers for his first outing and save -- and all is well. Rangers right-hander Jose Leclerc missed the Wednesday save with a sore shoulder, and Nick Goody was next in line. It's all something to ponder when the IL stint occurs. Josh Hader finally has a save and, in Tampa Bay, everyone added Oliver Drake and, of course, just to mess with everyone, he enters the game in the sixth inning -- and loses it. Nick Anderson? Beats me. He did not pitch. Seattle's save went to Dan Altavilla. Just ignore Seattle. Frankly, I have been avoiding it all, since about half of the closer situations in the sport are unclear.