History tells us it is hardly a given that the best baseball players in past full seasons are going to be the best ones during a future half-season. There is constant and often unpredictable volatility regardless of position, but that does not necessarily mean we should rip up our original rankings, either. Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole should be statistically awesome whether the season is 162 games or half of that, but we also know that strange things happen in smaller sample sizes. Hot streaks -- and cold ones -- and injuries and ballparks and a plethora of other factors will affect statistics.
ESPN MLB writers Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield mapped out their thoughts on a potential shortened season with historical data, statistical projections and random thoughts, so it only seems fair for some fantasy analysis as well. My general belief is that fantasy managers will want to
For example, I think we have every reason to feel confident that the Angels will play Trout regularly because it would be ridiculous not to, but the Yankees will be considerably more cautious with Cole, perhaps initially handling his innings and pitch counts carefully. For all we know, teams will expand rotations and lean on middle relief pitchers more than ever, which devalues pitchers in fantasy. At least that is my thought process. Hitters are safer. They tend to keep their health. Managers do not mess with them much. Predictability is key for us.
The biggest change to the 2020 season is probably in the introduction of the designated hitter to National League games. Not every team will award the extra at-bats to a fantasy-relevant option, but making the leagues even -- for run scoring and prevention purposes -- is a big deal. For many of us, when in doubt, we would choose an NL pitcher over an AL option because they would not have to face David Ortiz types regularly. Those days are likely over. In addition, before you even think it, no, I do not believe pitchers are more likely to retain health because they will not be batting.
Anyway, my colleagues broke it down by category, and only some of them are truly relevant for fantasy purposes, but I have thoughts, and they asked me to share them, so here we go.
About hitting .400
Batting average projections always tend to be cautious, rarely assuming any players will reach base safely via hits in one-third of their at-bats. In addition, there are no clear-cut, proven Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew types lurking, though the Mets' Jeff McNeil offered some of those characteristics. Sure, in a three-month season, as they noted historically, it is far more likely someone hits .400, which is to say it actually could happen. In a six-month season, forget about it. Still, I am going to draft the top all-around hitters, power-first choices who also hit for average and steal bases. Rare is the player who contributes in all five standard categories, so covet them.
I smiled when I saw Twins infielder Luis Arraez noted as a potential .400 option, because he possesses rare contact ability and playing time should be there, though sans even modest power and speed, I will focus more on the versatile hitters. I will say this: I tend to ignore the low-batting-average types, such as Joey Gallo, Rhys Hoskins and Rougned Odor, more than most, and that hardly changes just because there are fewer games on the schedule. You say they are more likely to hit .260 over a three-month sample; sure, but they could also hit .160., and in a shorter season, a fantasy manager has less time to fix a broken category, generally one of the percentages.
Triple Crown chances
Yeah, they still count runs batted in as a category for those and fantasy purposes, so even though the final numbers here are easily manipulative because of lineup spot and high on-base options in the order, we must pay attention. The key is not merely in finding players who provide home runs and RBIs, because they are everywhere, especially now and even later on in drafts, though we have no idea whether we will see the 2019 or 2018 baseballs. The key is finding those who do so with a high or respectable batting average, and that is not always so easy.
Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, thanks to playing half his contests at cozy Coors Field, provides an annual safe batting average floor, but keep up with the news, because there might not be any games in Denver or Seattle or Philadelphia. Baseball could return in only neutral places. If that is the case, safe to say it would affect our rankings quite a bit, and I might even draft Rockies right-hander Jon Gray on a team or two. Perhaps not.
Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez already showed the world what he is capable of in a shortened season, and it was glorious, but we cannot simply double his stats and assume he would have sailed through a full season with the same trends. Slumps happen, and just because we never saw one for him, it hardly means he is safe. We can assume, however, that Alvarez is going to get a ton of opportunities to knock in runs because of his likely lineup spot and the on-base percentage stars ahead of him, and I think he is far more likely to hit .300 than .200.
As for the projected power leaderboard, I have no qualms with the names, but whether the leader has 53 of them like last season or 25 in a half-season, I think it is a bad idea for fantasy managers to necessarily pick a number for how many of a particular category they need to draft or secure. Look at what happened in 2019, for example. Those power numbers -- and the strikeout stats for pitchers -- ended up way out of historical whack. Ultimately, no matter what the league-leading home run and RBI totals are, do your best to construct a versatile offense predicated on playing time.
Top steals options
The other thing about picking power choices is to aim to avoid relying on hitters who simply cannot provide it. Nothing against Mariners outfielder Mallex Smith or his colleague Dee Gordon, but now more than ever it is tough to spend a high pick or covet any hitter who provides so little in the power stats. In fact, if I cannot find five-category providers in the early rounds, or even rely on the Whit Merrifield types who at least provide something there, I might just punt stolen bases. After all, on the hitting side, it should not be difficult to find stolen bases in free agency, or trade for them.
Then again, expect stolen bases to be a tight race in real life and your leagues, so even a week of Smith or Gordon at some point might be enough to make a big difference. I just cannot fathom contending for the home run and RBI titles in a league with one of my outfielders potentially providing next to nothing there. I lost an NL-only league in 2019 not because then-Diamondbacks outfielder Jarrod Dyson swiped a valuable 30 bases but because he managed to bat in a pathetic 27 runs. Hey, that is not his thing, but a one-category player is often more of a fantasy problem than fantasy find.
Run prevention
As someone who also lost a championship solely because someone merely added then-Atlanta right-hander Kris Medlen and rode his amazing run in 2012 to a title -- yeah, I tend to remember the leagues lost rather than the leagues won! -- I think ERA and WHIP are likely to be the categories that provide the wildest, most unexpected numbers. Still, it hardly means we upset the starting pitcher rankings. It does mean I am far more likely to add a pitcher from free agency in the first month that looks lights out, just in case he continues his amazing performance for three months. Aggressiveness in adding -- and cutting -- players is more likely to have a reward in a short season.
As noted prior, hitters remain more projectable and safer than pitchers, especially in the current environs, but I would like to secure several of the top 25 starting pitchers for some sense of ERA and WHIP security. It does not have to be an actual ace, but get a solid base of innings and, again, avoid the potential disasters. After the top 25, things get a bit dicey. OK, so you think White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez is legit. Perhaps he is, but a few six-run outings and, in a shortened season, it is tougher to move up and erase the negative numbers.
Every game has a winner
Nobody was projected to win 10 or more games, and what I think is likely to occur is that several middle relievers get fortunate enough to vie for the league lead. Someone like Athletics right-hander Yusmeiro Petit, who has won five or more games in three consecutive seasons and piled on the innings, could win as many games as Justin Verlander. After all, do we know Verlander will get the chance to complete five innings in his early outings? Petit could end up pitching in the fifth inning half the time. It seems a poor investment to rely on likely awful starting pitchers because of wins and strikeouts. In a shortened season, a few wins could separate all the teams. It spreads out over six months.
As a result, I might avoid any starting pitchers outside the typical top-40 or top-50 rankings, and opt for some combination of starters, safe relievers and potential closers. Mets right-hander Seth Lugo, for example, won seven games a year ago, with excellent run prevention and strikeouts. It is true that Lugo types might be more commonly available for all in a shortened season, but what are you doing drafting Dylan Bundy, Mitch Keller and Chris Archer? OK, perhaps they thrive, but there is far too much risk to take that chance in a three-month season, especially with likely initial usage concerns. Play it safely with the pitchers, folks, focusing on run prevention first.