Spring is here and Eric Karabell misses baseball, so he is going to write about all 30 MLB teams, covering myriad player values and his general thoughts for what he hopes will ultimately be a fruitful 2020 season.
Next up, the Milwaukee Brewers!
Top fantasy storyline: Outfielder Christian Yelich, in his two seasons in Wisconsin, has hit 80 home runs, stolen 52 bases, won a pair of batting titles and very nearly earned a second NL MVP award. In other words, he has been awesome and become a worthy pick for the No. 1 fantasy option. Long gone were his years in Miami, when we eagerly awaited the breakout. He broke out, and then some.
What's new: More than half of the
What is not new: Whether by choice or force, manager Craig Counsell thinks and acts outside the box when it comes to starting pitcher usage. He has a potential ace in Brandon Woodruff and then others who could start 30 times or handle a long reliever role. Fantasy managers might want to avoid.
Players to target: After Yelich, the No. 2 Brewer in drafts is either slugging second baseman Keston Hiura or lefty closer Josh Hader. It is no contest for me, as I want the fellow who hit .303 with 19 home runs and nine stolen bases in 348 plate appearances and eschew closers until the middle rounds. Woodruff is the other star, perhaps a top-20 fantasy starter soon, if he can keep his K rate going -- he was No. 21 among pitchers with 120 or more innings -- and stay healthy. The rest of Milwaukee's rotation does not excite for statistical purposes.
Players to fade: I will not argue the point on Hader, a dominant strikeout option, other than to say the lost opportunity to select an ace or top hitter in his place -- likely in the sixth or seventh round -- is rather important. Outfielder Lorenzo Cain hit .308 with 30 stolen bases in his first Brewers season but looked older than 33 in his second one, posting a sub-.700 OPS. Blame injuries and walk rate, and never assume it'll get better in his mid-30s. Some would say Ryan Braun belongs here, but he still hits for power and, incredibly, has reached double digits in stolen bases in 12 of his 13 big league seasons, even with injuries and occasionally inconsistent playing time. In addition, nobody views him as a midround pick anymore. The likely universal DH helps him, and I would argue that if he is your last outfielder, you did well.
Key statistic: One of the splits I look at for younger right-handed hitters is whether they propped up their stats up by wearing out left-handed pitchers. If a young hitter cannot hit same-sided pitching, it hardly means he cannot learn, but it often becomes a problem that restricts upside. Hiura did not have this problem. He torched right-handed pitchers for a 1.021 OPS in 265 PA. Mike Trout was the only right-handed hitter, minimum 250 PA versus RHP, to do better. Hiura should regress a bit in this regard, but since he produced a lowly and unlucky .673 OPS against lefties, a star is about to be born.
Bullpen thoughts: Counsell used Hader as more of a setup man in 2018, and he saved only 12 games. His numbers were virtually identical in 2019, except for the 37 saves, which one could easily argue came about only because Counsell lacked a reliable right-hander to handle the ninth inning as former closer Corey Knebel missed the season after Tommy John surgery and Jeremy Jeffress struggled. Knebel is healthy now. Just saying, do not be surprised if Hader's saves drop precipitously because his smart manager uses him earlier in games, when many games are actually won and lost, rather than so he can pile up big numbers with an outdated statistic (saves) that tells us little about performance.
Prospect I like: The Brewers offer little for fantasy managers to dream about for the short term, which is a shame, because the rotation, even though question marks abound -- Lindblom, who last pitched in the majors in 2017 but thrived in Korea recently, might be the No. 2 starter -- offers opportunity. Right-handers Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes are well past rookie status, but each fits the narrative of drafting skills, not roles. Do not forget these fellows.
Bold prediction: Not to get too crazy about Hiura, but extrapolating his rookie numbers can make one wonder if the best fantasy second baseman lurks. Thirty home runs, 15 steals and a .300 batting average? Who does this at the position? Nobody. Jose Altuve stopped running. Ketel Marte just hit .329 with 32 blasts and 10 steals, but everyone expects regression. A decent comp for Hiura might be Anthony Rendon with speed. Hiura might swing and miss a bit too much to hit .300 on a regular basis, but OK, I will say it: By 2021, this is the No. 1 fellow at second base.