Last season was a record setting year. The Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees shattered the previous team high with respect to home runs. More long balls were swatted in 2019 than any season in MLB history.
Lost in the shuffle was the decline in steals. With sluggers knocking the ball out of the yard at a historical clip, the running game waned. In fact, last year was the first season since 1972 to average fewer than one steal per game. That isn't one steal per team, per game, that's both teams combined.
While the dearth of steals was barely discussed in the mainstream media, astute fantasy players were aware of the trend. With fewer stolen bases populating the category in rotisserie scoring, it required fewer bags to gain standings points. Those in daily leagues sagely played matchups, looking to activate their stolen base contributors while facing batteries less adept at controlling the running game.
While draft strategy always entails deciding how to approach steals, it's more important this season with the current power/speed trend. Integral to this procedure is understanding the distribution of stolen bases in typical rotisserie league standings.
The best way to analyze categorical distribution is via normalized standings. Normalized standings set the total unit of stats within each category to the same number. For instance, last season, the typical 15-team mixed league averaged 4,920 homers and 1,621 steals spread among the fantasy roster. In normalized standings, the team totals are proportionately adjusted so the total is identical in both. Below are normalized standings for the 26 leagues comprising the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Main Event contest.
Each category totals 1000 units, distributed in the same manner as the average standings for this set of leagues. Research shows a similar distribution in leagues of all sizes, so the conclusions gleaned from this discussion are applicable to all rotisserie leagues, even those with 10 or 12 teams.
Before focusing on stolen bases, it's worth noting some interesting patterns, useful when strategizing for the draft and in-season management. The three most tightly bunched categories are the rate stats, batting average, ERA and WHIP. There's a faulty notion suggesting gaining of losing points in these categories is harder as the season progresses. Granted, the accumulation of at bats and innings lessens the movement, research shows just as many, if not more points are gained or lost in the ratio categories, in part due to relatively smaller gaps between teams.
While today's concentration will be steals, saves follow a similar pattern in terms of top to bottom spread. In fact, the difference between the top and bottom teams is even greater than steals, but that's a story for another day.
One of the goals of building a fantasy roster is the efficient use of resources. The following is a description of a simple way to visualize the process.
Most fantasy leagues are assembled via a snake drafts, while others utilize auctions where the expected contributions of each player are quantified into dollar value. What some snake drafters may not realize is rankings and cheat sheets often emanate from auction dollar values.
Conventional valuation assumes equal assets are dedicated to each category. It will soon be demonstrated the same portion of the budget does not yield the same number of category points across the hitting (and pitching) categories. This will be the basis of designing the optimal draft strategy.
What follows is the normalized hitting standings converted to dollar amounts based on typical auction leagues, using an initial $260 budget where 69% is spent on batters. Individual leagues may allocate more or less than 69% to hitters, but this is the average.
Before delving into the analysis, it takes about $320 worth of stats to win most leagues. If you spend $260 and end up with exactly $260 worth of stats, you're looking at a mid-standings finish, in this case eighth place. The additional $60 worth of stats is derived from acquiring players who produce more than their cost and sage in-season roster management. That said, everyone begins the auction with $260, so that's the basis of the ensuing discussion.
The typical team spends about $180 on hitting, or $36 per category. As expected, spending the average amount lands the team in the middle of most categories (8 points), with more points earned in batting average (9 points) and steals (8.5 points).
As mentioned earlier, the top to bottom spread of the stats is greatest in steals, resulting in larger gaps between adjacent teams compared to the other categories. What happens if only $34 is used on steals, funneling $2 to the other categories?
Spending less on steals loses about 1.5 points. However, the extra $2 gains four points in runs and RBI, three in homers and wins the batting average category.
Don't worry, you don't need to be able to assign dollar values to each player and track exactly how much to spend on each category. The actionable point is it's more efficient to aim for a little below average in steals while shooting for a higher standings place in the other areas.
In drafts, don't worry about picking players with steals as their primary contribution; spread them over several hitters. Admittedly, this is common practice, but it's always reassuring when data supports intuition.
The initial ESPN projections featured 31 players expected to hit at least 10 homers while swiping at least 15 bags. Obviously, these will be adjusted once the start to the 2020 campaign is determined. Here are five under-the-radar options meeting the above criteria, able to address steals while not sacrificing homers. Each is generally ranked outside of the Top-200 so they're available later in drafts.
Tommy Edman, 2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Not only is Edman a cheap source of power and speed, he's already eligible at multiple position with more to come as the Cardinals envision him playing all over the diamond on a near-regular basis. He's much more likely to eclipse the minimum needed to make this list in steals, though double-digit power is likely. Last season, he was successful on 15 of 16 stolen base attempts with the Redbirds, after being perfect in nine tries while opening the season with Triple-A Louisville.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Cleveland Indians
Hernandez is a perennially underappreciated fantasy player, particularly in OBP and points leagues. That said, he's coming off a down season, feeding into his low ranking. Another reason Hernandez is ranked so low is he's expected to hit in the lower part of the Tribe's order. However, Hernandez has hit at the top previously and could ascend again if he improves on last season's uncharacteristically low .333 on base mark. He only pilfered nine bags last season, but he averaged 17.5 a year over the previous four campaigns.
Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
While it's unfair to label Wong a disappointment, he hasn't met the expectations some had when he debuted with St. Louis in 2013. To be fair, Wong is one of the better defenders at the keystone, earning the National League Gold Glove at second base. Defense may not directly count in fantasy, but it helps keep those slick with the leather in the lineup. For the past few campaigns, Wong has spent most of his time hitting in the bottom portion of the order but there was some talk in camp of batting him at the top. Coming off career best 24 steal campaign, he'll be given the green light wherever he's slotted.
Garrett Hampson, 2B/OF, Colorado Rockies
This time last season, Hampson populated many a sleeper list. Fast forward a year and while he's not persona non grata, there's little confidence Colorado will play Hampson regularly, preferring Ryan McMahon in the infield and Ian Desmond in the outfield. There's always a chance the Rockies come to their senses and cut bait with Desmond, or the oft-injured David Dahl has a health issue, but even then, Colorado would turn to Sam Hilliard or Raimel Tapia. Still, if you believe in drafting skills and letting playing time take care of itself, Hampson is your man.
Jon Berti, 3B/SS/OF, Miami Marlins
Berti is a bit like Edman, without a set position buy earmarked to play almost everywhere. He burst upon the scene the second half of last year, swiping 17 bags in 20 tries, including nine in September. Power isn't Berti's game, but with near regular play, he can run into double digit long balls. His multiple position eligibility helps mitigate his own lack of power, insuring you can fortify your lineup elsewhere with the best available player.