In the middle of April, I observed the Seattle Mariners' top prospect, Justus Sheffield. Advertised as a potential frontline starter, I came away mostly unimpressed. His fastball lacked zip. His slider was inconsistent. His changeup was almost nonexistent, and even the simple task of throwing strikes was a labored effort.
Since then, things have gotten even worse for Sheffield. In 13 games (12 starts) for the Tacoma Rainiers, he's posted a 6.87 ERA. He's had just 48 strikeouts (and 41 walks) in 55 innings and has allowed 12 balls to leave the yard. His most recent stretch of games was particularly terrible. Over his last four starts with the Rainiers, Sheffield allowed 23 runs in just 11 innings, walking nearly as many men (12) as he struck out (14) and serving up half of his home run total for the season.
One would think there is something physically wrong with Sheffield. However, he maintains that his arm feels good and his stuff is just fine. Furthermore, considering the stock the Mariners have invested in him, the organization isn't going to allow him to pitch if it knows about a physical issue.
In any event, it was clear Sheffield could not continue to get hit around in Tacoma.
With the injured list not being an option, the Mariners decided to demote Sheffield to Double-A Arkansas. It's disappointing to be sure, but a pitcher needing a reprieve from the Pacific Coast League is not uncommon. That said, the Texas League is no easy task either. Still, for Sheffield it represents a reset that is absolutely necessary.
Sheffield made his debut for the Travelers on Tuesday night. He faced the Corpus Christi Hooks, a Houston Astros affiliate featuring a rehabbing Max Stassi. The results were good. Sheffield allowed just one run on four hits and two walks. He struck out seven and finished his five frames in fewer than 80 pitches. The question is: Did he look as good as the box score indicates? Let's dig in.
Fastball
Back in April, Sheffield's fastball was what disappointed me most. Nearly all scouting reports sold me on a mid-90s fastball with heavy sink -- a real alpha pitch. What I saw then was a weaker 89-92 mph fastball with spotty control that would not scare or challenge anyone at the big league level. However, it was early on. The weather was not quite as warm as it is now, so this was something I was very interested in following up on.
Despite all the recent struggles, I can report that on Tuesday, Sheffield's fastball was greatly improved. Coming in at 93-96 mph, with life, this offering was a major league fastball. Sheffield located it on both sides of the plate and kept it almost exclusively below the belt. He showed no hesitation to throw it in on the hands of righties, but he also showed the ability to work away. He got Stassi to chase an outside fastball for a strikeout in their first encounter.
This version of the heater is one you can lead an arsenal with. It was firm. It was well-located and it had the Hooks uncomfortable during his entire appearance. He was able to maintain solid velocity throughout.
By the way, while I did not know about him before this game, Sheffield's catcher, Joseph Odom, was a huge plus for the left-hander all night. For those wondering, he is a 27-year-old backstop with just nine games of experience above Double-A. He is a career .240 hitter who has thrown out just 22 percent of would-be baserunners. Tossing those important facts aside, Odom is an excellent receiver and presenter. The majors are not likely in his future, but coaching or helping a staff in some way would not surprise me.
Slider
It is amazing how well a secondary pitch works when a hurler's primary offering is doing the heavy lifting. Because of the plus-fastball, Sheffield's slider was much more effective than the last time I saw him. Being consistently ahead in the count allowed the left-hander to use the breaking ball as it is intended -- in other words, to get outs.
The pitch was thrown in the mid-80s. Because of the increased fastball velocity, the gap between the pitches was much better. Sheffield showed similar confidence in the pitch going against the platoon split. He routinely attempted to get out right-handed hitters with back-foot sliders and had a good amount of success in doing so. He also showed how much of a weapon it can be against fellow lefties. Houston prospect Seth Beer was no match in two plate appearances. He went down swinging on sliders dashing away both times.
Sheffield's slider was naturally good in April. I thought it suffered from a poor fastball that caused him to rely too much on his best pitch. With the heater working, the slider really shined. This one-two combo is what has carried him this far, and ultimately, this pair of pitches working in unison is what will get him back to the show.
Sheffield's changeup remains seldom used, so I'll throw in a mention of it here before we move on. He did set down righty Stephen Wrenn twice on changeups, but they were not particularly impressive. To me, this was the clear difference in talent level. Sheffield is a top prospect. Wrenn is not. Even Sheffield's worst offering was enough to make Wrenn miss badly.
Control/Command
Overall, Sheffield threw strikes 63 percent of the time. That alone is not a great number, but it is an improvement from where he has been. I will also say that the number was skewed a bit by designed misses. Several times, Odom called for a slider below the zone intended to induce a chase. Sheffield delivered to the right spot, but the batter did not offer. The ability to drop the slider at the back foot is a control-related skill -- and it's one that Sheffield possesses.
I was most impressed with Sheffield's ability to spot the fastball on the inside corner to right-handers. Working from the third base side of the rubber, he was able to drill the heater almost on a line from his own back foot. The consistent first-pitch strike allowed him to work quicker plate appearances and enhanced the threat and effectiveness of the slider. It was not only good fastball control, but there was actual command at times.
Conclusion
Of course, this is only one outing, and against a lower level of competition, but the climb back to the top had to start somewhere. For Sheffield, that somewhere could be Corpus Christi, Texas.
Sheffield said there was nothing wrong with his arm or his stuff, and I will agree. His fastball was greatly improved since we last checked on him. The better velocity and location allowed for his slider to act like an out pitch. Yes, he got a few outs with the off-speed, but the changeup will need more improvement to be useful at the highest level -- and, alas, he has to make it up there first.
I think another start or two like this could get Sheffield where he needs to be mentally. If the stuff remains sharp and he continues to show a renewed focus on the mound, I see no reason for him to return to Tacoma. Seattle is starting to sell off assets in order to look toward 2020 and beyond. This version of Sheffield could be a big part of that future. Why not start that future now?