In the spirit of trying to keep things fresh and provide you with more well-rounded prospect content, this piece will look a bit unconventional compared to that of the other profiles you will see throughout the year. From time to time, I will break down a prospect's tools and performance for select games. I am not a scout, but I've been around the block enough to make some educated observations that will hopefully help you in making better-informed decisions regarding your future rosters. This will allow us to look beyond the numbers and the box scores, where every hit is a line drive and every strikeout is a devastating swing-and-miss punchout.
Quick Background
Justus Sheffield made his third start of the 2019 season for the Tacoma Rainiers on Wednesday. After two disappointing starts, the left-hander turned in a quality performance against the El Paso Chihuahuas -- who moonlighted as the El Paso Diablos for some reason in this game.
Sheffield, the 31st pick in the 2014 draft by the Cleveland Indians, was traded to the New York Yankees in exchange for Andrew Miller in July 2016. He made his major league debut last September for the Yankees, pitching three games in relief before he was traded in November to the Seattle Mariners in the deal for James Paxton.
This spring, Sheffield appeared in major league camp for the Mariners but was optioned to Tacoma to start the season. In his first two starts he walked eight batters in 8⅔ innings and registered just three strikeouts.
The stat line was much better on Wednesday, though the way he achieved those statistics left a little more to be desired.
Fastball
Most scouts give Sheffield's fastball a grade somewhere around a 60 on the 20-80 scale. The heater had routinely been clocked between 92-97 mph with heavy sink, which gives him the ability to generate a high number of ground balls.
That is not the fastball I saw against El Paso. This fastball was more of a 50-grade heater (average). He did not hit the mid-90s as advertised. Instead, most fastballs came in between 89 and 92 mph. He did generate a decent amount of ground balls with the sinker, but he had some control issues.
Perhaps Sheffield is still building arm strength at this point of the season. Or maybe starting a road game at 11 a.m. is not great for velocity. Either way, this version of the fastball would not scare your average major league hitter. This will be something to check back on in a few starts to see if the mid-90s velocity returns. If it does jump back up, we're talking about a completely different pitcher.
Slider
Typically, Sheffield's slider gets the highest grades in his arsenal, and that was the case Wednesday as well. Though not as consistent as you would like, the pitch did flash 60-grade at times, causing several ugly swings and misses. He uses the pitch against both lefties and righties, with the offering sweeping away from fellow lefties like Josh Naylor for a strikeout, but he's also not afraid to throw it down and in at the back foot of right-handed batters.
Sheffield threw almost two versions of the pitch: one that he located for strikes in the lower left quadrant of the strike zone from a catcher's perspective and another that was thrown a little bit harder and with a little bit more depth. This variation was intended to induce chases out of the zone. Both pitches were effective; however, he used the pitch a bit too often and became predictable. He is not the first pitcher to have this problem. Matt Garza and Chris Archer come to mind. Of course, the slider would be enhanced by better fastball control. He relied on the pitch to get ahead in counts, which I think hurt his ability to get chases later in counts.
Changeup
Sheffield's changeup often comes third in the pecking order. It was definitely third in usage against San Diego's Triple-A affiliate. Nevertheless, arguably the best two pitches he threw on the day were changeups. Jose Pirela, who hit a two-run home run off Sheffield in the second inning, came to bat once again in the seventh inning. After seeing an 89 mph fastball on the first pitch, Pirela fouled off an 85 mph changeup. Following another fastball at 89, he swung and missed at a changeup that faded low to Sheffield's arm side. Pirela was out in front of the pitch with no chance of making contact.
If Sheffield can consistently repeat this type of changeup instead of the one that looks like a tired fastball, he will have his third pitch and his outlook at the next level would greatly improve.
Control/Command
Nearly all accounts have Sheffield with below-average control. There was little to dispel that here. Although the three walks in 6⅔ innings is a vast improvement over the eight walks in his previous eight innings, he still had issues finding the zone. Of his 84 pitches, just 51 (60 percent) were strikes.
In the second inning, Sheffield had two pitches that sailed over his catcher's head and hit the backstop, one coming with a runner on base that allowed him to advance. There were some questionable calls that didn't go his way -- especially to the glove side -- but that is the nature of a pitcher who relies so heavily on a breaking ball that moves that way. Without a big improvement in this area, Sheffield likely tops out as a back-end starter or is converted to a reliever full time.
Closing Thoughts
As far as quality starts go, this one was rather unimpressive. Aside from the fact that the Rainiers blew the lead after Sheffield was taken out in the seventh inning, his fastball was not as good as advertised. His changeup was actually better than I thought but still needs work. The vaunted slider was clearly his best pitch. Meanwhile, the slider piece was inconsistent and overused at times. He looked much more like a No. 4 starter than a 2.
For all the "meh," there was some good to take away from Sheffield's outing. He was far better in this start than he was in his previous two starts. He did generate eight ground balls, including two double plays. He narrowly missed out on a third after an E4 up the middle.
Sheffield is somebody I will definitely check back on in a few weeks. His pedigree and prospect status warrant another look. There is also a decent chance he spends a good portion of the summer in Seattle.