Perhaps the most pivotal arm not on a major league roster was on display Tuesday night. I have no idea what Dallas Keuchel, still the top pitching free agent in the world, was doing on Tuesday, but I do know Forrest Whitley was on the bump for the Round Rock Express, the Triple-A affiliate of Keuchel's former employer, the Houston Astros.
Whitley, 21, was selected 17th overall in the 2016 MLB draft out of Alamo Heights High School in San Antonio, Texas. Sometime in 2019 he is expected to make his major league debut about three hours west on the I-10 for the championship-contending Astros.
The right-handed pitcher is
The problem thus far is not what Whitley can do. He has shown the ability to dominate on a given night when the ball is in his hand. No, Whitley's problem has been getting to the mound enough times to show how good he is. Since 2016, he has made just 46 appearances (39 starts), including six in the Arizona Fall League.
Whitley pitched sparingly after being drafted, tossing just 18⅔ innings in the summer of 2016 before making his full-season debut in 2017. That year, he pitched across three levels, starting in low-A before finishing with Double-A Corpus Christi, but with just 92 innings. He was slated to start the 2018 season with the Hooks once again but received a 50-game suspension for a violation of Major League Baseball's drug prevention and treatment program.
After the suspension, Whitley did return to Corpus Christi; however, he made just eight starts (26⅓ innings) around injuries to his oblique and later a lat muscle strain. He did go on to throw 26 innings during the AFL in an attempt to recoup some of the lost development time.
Although the Astros entered camp with an open spot in the rotation, it was unrealistic to think that Whitley would have been in competition for the spot. Nonetheless, he was impressive this spring, striking out 17 batters in 15 innings in his time with the big league club. He was optioned to Triple-A Round Rock, where he debuted on Tuesday in the team's home opener.
Whitley took the loss, surrendering a pair of runs on four hits and a walk in five innings. Despite the end result, the stuff was electric. Flashing 98 mph with the fastball, the Texan struck out seven batters. He threw just the five frames while keeping his pitch count economical. He made just 65 pitches on the evening, including 44 strikes.The lone walk and 67 percent strike rate shows the feel for control. Even some of those pitches that missed the zone were by design, as he threw a handful of breaking balls that landed in the dirt and were intended to induce chases by the hitter. Most impressively, Whitley was able to hit both corners of the plate almost on demand when called for by catcher Garrett Stubbs.
The Astros have played much better ball this week after dropping five of their first eight games. The pitching has been solid, led by Gerrit Cole and a resurgent Collin McHugh, though Brad Peacock, the de facto fifth starter, remains a soft spot in the rotation. Houston has several options in the bullpen, like Josh James and Framber Valdez, who can start, but neither has the upside of Whitley -- nor does any minor league pitcher right now.
Talent and upside are not the issues here. Health and endurance are. Despite last season's injuries, Whitley's right arm remains unscathed. In order to keep it that way, the Astros will have to be diligent in how they use him in 2019. He has never thrown 100 innings in a professional season. With just 52 innings last season, even just hitting the century mark would be a large increase.
If Whitley does reach Houston this summer, it may not be in the role we all want to see him in. Having James, Valdez and others available to start would allow the Astros to potentially use Whitley as a high-leverage weapon down the stretch and maybe into the postseason. This is likely the best use of organizational resources and the limited action he has this season, even if it is not as much fun for fans and fantasy owners. That said, it would set him up for a much larger and more impactful role in 2020.
Regardless of what he does this season, Whitley is a must-have in multiyear leagues. He has true ace potential. As for redrafts, keep checking back throughout the season, as I will be monitoring his progress and assessing his value in this format.