It has already been an amazing season for rookie hitters but while we continue to marvel at how Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits baseballs so hard, at the immediate power of Austin Riley and at the statistical versatility and upside of Fernando Tatis Jr., one player stands out the most. New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso reached base six times in Atlanta on Tuesday and is hitting .274 with a pace for 53 home runs and 126 runs batted in. The Mets might be a mess, but their No. 2 hitter in the lineup shows no signs of decline and is already a top-10 option at his loaded position.
I compared Alonso to the more-established Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins back in April and most laughed it off, but I think it makes sense. Hoskins leads the National League in walks but Alonso has outslugged him by 100 points. We regard Hoskins as a top-50 overall selection. Alonso deserves similar treatment, at least, and not even half a season into his career. I think we knew the power would translate to some degree but it seems ridiculous now that so many of us waited until the later rounds to pick Alonso because the Mets would not guaranteed the playing time. OK, so that is the Mets being the Mets and, in fairness, Dominic Smith has impressed as well. Alonso has been awesome.
Some of my personal favorite rookies for fantasy purposes are the ones I invested in when few seemed to believe, like Tampa Bay Rays infielder Brandon Lowe, Boston Red Sox infielder Michael Chavis and Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker. I have Pittsburgh Pirates outfield Bryan Reynolds in a few places, too. These players have exceeded expectations and in a few cases, few thought they would even play. Alonso always seemed the right choice to start for the Mets, but his plate maturity is incredible. Disregard the strikeouts. They do not matter for this era, as long as he hits at least .250, which I think he can do. He is eighth in baseball in wOBA, ahead of Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman and myriad All-Stars. Alonso needs to be an All-Star.
I marvel at how Alonso barrels up so many pitches at so many different speeds, being able to go to all fields as well. According to Baseball Savant, Alonso is among the leaders in barrel percentage, nestled between Mike Trout and Nelson Cruz. Gary Sanchez leads the way and is third in max exit velocity, behind Guerrero and Alonso and slightly ahead of Christian Yelich. Perhaps this is a way of saying that not only is Alonso a star right now, and perhaps undervalued in fantasy, but we should be patient with Guerrero as well. His big numbers are pending.
For now, this one observer rates Alonso as fantasy's top rookie, which is hardly going out on some limb. It might be different if we drafted him in Round 5. Instead, Alonso was a 16th-round selection in ESPN ADP, and much of that push came in the early April weeks. How ridiculous. No, Alonso is not going to win a Gold Glove at first base and he might remain among the leaders in strikeouts all season. So what? The batting average is good enough and the power is monstrous. As for the rest of my top 5 rookie hitters for fantasy, Tatis, Lowe, Riley and Victor Robles are worthy, but by the end of the season Alonso will be followed by Tatis (he steals bases and hits for average, too), Guerrero, Yordan Alvarez and Eloy Jimenez.
Monday takeaways
• What do you think of your decision to give up on Chicago White Sox outfielder Eloy Jimenez now? OK, so perhaps you stuck with the rookie when he did not initially hit anything but the injured list, but his ninth-inning home run Tuesday was his sixth in nine games, and he has quickly raised his OPS to .807. He looks like the 30-homer option so many thought he would be and remains available in 28 percent of ESPN standard leagues.
• I wish I could tell Jose Ramirez investors that his three-run home run Tuesday was the start of something big, but how can anyone know? Ramirez had not homered in more than a month. He remains 34 shy of his 2018 total and while we love the stolen bases and the plate discipline remains, this is an odd season. Ramirez is hitting baseballs harder than 2018 and more in the air, though with a lower launch angle and not as far. The BABIP is depressed but it was last season. I think if you have waited this long you have no choice but to see what happens, but could this go on for six months and he ends up hitting .210 with 12 home runs and 28 steals. That stinks, but I wait.
• Start No. 1 for San Diego Padres lefty Logan Allen went quite well, as he silenced the Milwaukee Brewers over seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits and fanning five. As for his immediate future, as mentioned Tuesday, there are no guarantees because the organization appears to view Allen, Cal Quantrill and Chris Paddack as comprising one, perhaps two rotation spots, and none will be pushed hard.
• That is not the case with Miami Marlins right-hander Jordan Yamamoto, who has yet to permit a run in either of his first two starts - both against the St. Louis Cardinals - and should stick around. Yamamoto might not be a top prospect, but one of the returns in the Christian Yelich trade looks great and deserves more fantasy attention in case this is legit. He faces the Philadelphia Phillies next.
• As a surprisingly pleased Julio Teheran investor, I knew the Atlanta Braves right-hander could not possibly pitch this well all season. Teheran entered Tuesday with a remarkable stretch of allowing no more than one earned run over eight starts, and nary a home run. Then the New York Mets hammered him. Stuff happens. Teheran gets the Chicago Cubs next and while Teheran had been fortunate to be so successful at run prevention, and his FIP is a run higher than his ERA, keep him around. One start should not erase two months of good ones.
• Yes, New York Yankees outfielder Cameron Maybin has homered in four consecutive games and yes, it might not matter when Aaron Judge comes off the injured list soon. Maybin could join Clint Frazier in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He could also be hitting cleanup for the Orioles in a week. So nice to have depth. Giancarlo Stanton looked rusty in his return from the IL, but it was interesting that manager Aaron Boone hit him fifth, not disrupting the top of the lineup with Luke Voit second and Aaron Hicks third. I wonder where Judge fits in?
Health report
• Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton is no stranger to missing time, and this injured list stint is for a bruised wrist. Perhaps it is nothing and Buxton returns in a week, when eligible. His numbers look legit, with a pace for more than 20 homers and stolen bases, along with a usable batting average. Despite hitting ninth, he has scored 40 runs. Try to keep Buxton rostered unless this absence lasts longer than a month.
• Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi stole his 27th base on Tuesday but left with right groin tightness. The No. 4 option on the season Player Rater is on pace for 60 steals and 98 RBI, and we can all live with his .269 batting average. An IL stint would really hurt since he has stolen more bases than 10 major league teams. Let us hope he is fine for the weekend.
Closing time
• Well, now that Cincinnati Reds manager David Bell has gone to Raisel Iglesias in the eighth inning on consecutive days and had Michael Lorenzen close, we must adjust our mindset. Perhaps a change has occurred. It seems like an odd one but I would not cut Iglesias for Lorenzen. If mining for saves, however, add Lorenzen just in case he becomes as valuable as the timeshare options for the Rays, Twins and other clubs.
W2W4
• Perhaps baseball will be played in Washington today? Who knows? A second consecutive day of rain postponed the Phillies and Nationals but there was news as right-hander Max Scherzer broke his nose on a bunting drill. He might pitch through it Wednesday, or he might miss a start. Those in weekly leagues relying on Phillies and Nationals could really use some games here, and two are on the schedule for Wednesday, weather permitting. Let us see if the Phillies get Jay Bruce and J.T. Realmuto back in the lineup after weekend injuries.
• The Nos. 3 and 4 starting pitchers on the Player Rater take the hill as Chicago White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito faces struggling Jon Lester at Wrigley Field, while Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke hosts Colorado's Jon Gray on ESPN+. Giolito has obviously figured everything out and while we debated on a recent Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast whether he is a top-10 starter for 2020 drafts, if he keeps this up, he is. He will earn a better rank than Greinke, with a far longer history of success despite a fastball that, for this era, is not so fast. Anyway, it is an interesting comparison. By the way, the last we saw of Gray he was walking a pitcher with the bases loaded to lose a weekend game. Trust him on the road if you want, and love the strikeouts, but he only hurts your ERA and WHIP and is far worse this year and last in road games.
Tuesday, June 18: Closer report: BABIP overachievers like Alex Colome
Monday, June 17: Yankees lineup with Edwin, weekend wrap
Thursday, June 13: Free agent report: Yordan Alvarez, Rays outfielders
Wednesday, June 12: Upton's return, Bauer, Lambert, Chavis
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