One way to evaluate pitchers is to check out their collected batting average on balls in play, or the BABIP. Since relief pitchers generally participate in a fraction of the innings of starters, the BABIP against can be misleading and, at times, it might not normalize. After all, crazy things can happen over just a 50-inning sample. Still, as someone who aggressively recommended Texas Rangers right-hander Jose Leclerc for 2019, I admit his .211 BABIP against from last season was something I
A bevy of our favorite closers escaped the 2018 season with what we would generally call reduced BABIP rates, including Chicago Cubs right-hander Craig Kimbrel, Milwaukee Brewers lefty Josh Hader, Oakland Athletics right-hander Blake Treinen and Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen. This does not mean these pitchers were simply lucky, however. They are exceptional pitchers and, in some cases, these BABIP figures match previous results. Jansen's career BABIP is .266, but it was .238 in 2016. Kimbrel's career mark is .260, though last season, as he pitched in and out of more trouble than normal for him, it was .216. Treinen's BABIP is .301. Sometimes these marks replicate, or return to career mean. They do not have to.
So it is that I could not help but notice that Chicago White Sox right-hander Alex Colome, with a solid 2.30 ERA and 14 saves, is currently enjoying a .113 BABIP. While my memory is not quite as good as it used to be, I cannot recall a mark that favorable in months of work. It should surprise nobody that Colome's FIP (4.13), xFIP (4.48) and fWAR (0.2) show an average hurler of little statistical distinction and someone fantasy managers should be wary of. Perhaps this means Colome is not a target by contenders over the next six weeks. Colome can pitch better, and it is worth saying his BABIP could rise dozens of points from one bad, or simply unlucky, outing. Still, this concerns me.
Colome, Boston Red Sox right-hander Brandon Workman, Hader, Detroit Tigers right-hander Shane Greene (you knew that was coming, didn't you?), Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Greg Holland and Houston Astros right-hander Roberto Osuna are the other fantasy-relevant pitchers I see with current BABIP figures on the good side of .200. This doesn't mean to run away from these pitchers. Hader, in my eyes, is more likely to post a silly-low BABIP because he allows so few balls in play in the first place. He has permitted six home runs. Make contact against him, and the ball flies, but you do not see many bloopers fall in when he pitches.
Greene and Holland have outperformed expectations, but if all you care about are the saves, then yes, there is no reason they cannot keep accruing them without torching their ERA and WHIP. I seriously doubt Greene keeps a sub-1.00 ERA for long, and his FIP is more like what we would have seen as an excellent ERA for him (3.46). I would not say regressing BABIP is the reason Greene could post an ERA on the wrong side of 4.00 from here on out, because things do not always even out. He could just struggle because he is, well, Shane Greene. He permitted 12 earned runs last September.
Some would argue that a bad BABIP is also something to watch, and that is true. New York Mets right-hander Edwin Diaz was fantastic for the 2018 Seattle Mariners. He is a good closer, and his current 3.77 ERA is unlucky. His BABIP is .406, third worst among qualified relief pitchers after Mike Wright and Nick Kingham. Kansas City Royals right-hander Ian Kennedy, whose five June saves lead the AL, has a .392 BABIP. Better times are likely coming for Diaz and Kennedy, along with Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Ken Giles, Atlanta Braves right-hander Luke Jackson and Washington Nationals lefty Sean Doolittle. This does not mean I would happily trade Colome for Kennedy, for example, but this does make you think, right?
Monday takeaways
• Cleveland Indians right-hander Mike Clevinger threw well in his return to the major league mound on Monday but was inefficient, and some bad luck resulted in five earned runs on his ledger. Do not panic! Clevinger, a 200-strikeout fellow from last year who missed a few months this season with a back injury, appeared to tire in the fourth inning when he allowed a Danny Santana home run, and then two inherited runners crossed the plate in the fifth. Clevinger fanned seven but walked three. I have no concerns about him and think you are running out of time to add and stash his colleague Corey Kluber, who should return around the All-Star break. I trust Kluber.
• Los Angeles Angels outfielder Justin Upton had a better return, hitting the first pitch he saw this season over the center field fence. Of course, Edwin Jackson chucked it, so have some perspective since his ERA matches Justin Verlander's if you add a 1 before it (12.43 ERA). Anyway, you all knew Upton was returning, and you know he hits 30 home runs per season, so he should be in your active lineups. And the next time Jackson is on the schedule to pitch, which really ought to be in doubt, add all hitters.
• Rangers right-hander Lance Lynn figured to be an "innings guy" for his new team and, in a way, he is, since Lynn is tied for 12th in that department. These innings happen to be good ones, though. Only 13 pitchers have more strikeouts, and he is No. 47 among starting pitchers on the Player Rater. No, we did not see that coming. Lynn's ERA is 4.16, but his FIP is 3.00. I think he can cut another run off that ERA and help fantasy managers win titles. I compare this to Rangers outfielder Hunter Pence; many scoffed at his early success, and then he kept succeeding. Pence's injured list stint temporarily ruined a really good thing. Keep him rostered if possible.
• Nine players have more home runs than Royals outfielder Jorge Soler. That is all, nine. He is on pace for 43. Yes, there are disturbing signs everywhere here, but I think we should reevaluate things like K rate and home run/fly ball ratio for this era of launch angle and easily launched baseballs. Soler is solely trying to hit home runs, and it is working, regardless of home ballpark and every one of his underlying numbers. In our business, we project ahead, and I do not see this stopping because a fly ball rate like his used to seem unsustainable, but we must adjust the rules now. Soler is going to break the franchise home run mark and reach 40.
• Mariners catchers are hitting .287 with a .863 OPS and 18 home runs, after Tom Murphy had another nice effort on Monday. Omar Narvaez is also thriving. Minnesota's catchers have more home runs. Minnesota, the Cubs and the Brewers boast better OPS there. I have no issue with fantasy managers adding Narvaez and Murphy even in single-catcher formats. One could do far worse.
• I thought San Diego Padres youngster Francisco Mejia could be a top-10 catcher. Still do. The team recalled him Monday because the backup to Austin Hedges got hurt. Mejia has not hit big league pitching. He has hit like crazy in the minors. I would not give up in a dynasty format.
Health report
• Awesome second basemen Jose Altuve and Scooter Gennett are on the mend. Altuve tripled in four at-bats for Triple-A Round Rock Monday. He should return to the Astros this weekend, and even though it was a hamstring injury, let us not presume he cannot return to full statistical engagement. Trade for him. Trade for Gennett as well; his groin strain healed, this hitter of 50 big league home runs the past two seasons is on his own rehab assignment and could return next week. Derek Dietrich has done nicely, but Gennett will play regularly.
Closing time
• Tampa Bay Rays lefty Jose Alvarado remains on the restricted list with family-related issues, and his return to the team is not imminent. Frankly, I think it is just fine to pass on Rays relievers. Diego Castillo is the Rays' reliever to roster, but he is on pace for 16 saves. Even good teams do not always supply fantasy-relevant relief options.
• Reds manager David Bell raised eyebrows by relieving closer Raisel Iglesias in the ninth inning Monday for Michael Lorenzen. The latter retired two hitters for his third save. Iglesias is stuck on 13. Odd move? Well, Iglesias did get two outs in the eighth inning, and his pitch count was 21, with only 10 of them strikes. He walked two, and lefties Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez were coming up. Bell said postgame that circumstances dictated the move. He is right. What rule is there that the normal closer has to finish the game? Let the player and his agent complain. Why do their cries matter? I bet Iglesias saves the next one, but even if he does not, adding Lorenzen might not be a wise move, for he might not be next in line. He just had not pitched in the game already.
W2W4
• Padres lefty prospect Logan Allen debuts at home against the Brewers, and my colleague Tommy Rancel shares his valuable thoughts here. My thoughts: As with Chris Paddack and Cal Quantrill, the Padres are under no obligation to announce their plans for these fellows. Allen could toss a shutout and still end up back in the minors tomorrow. I think Paddack returns next week, and those who cut him will regret it. I like Allen, but this is not a strong matchup for any opposing pitcher. Brandon Woodruff, on the other hand, strikes everyone out, and the Padres do quite a bit of it themselves. Texas right-hander Adrian Sampson (vs. Cleveland) and even old Oakland lefty Brett Anderson (vs. Baltimore) make more sense to me for fantasy than Allen.
Most recent KaraBlogs
Monday, June 17: Yankees lineup with Edwin, weekend wrap
Thursday, June 13: Free-agent report: Yordan Alvarez, Rays outfielders
Wednesday, June 12: Upton's return, Bauer, Lambert, Chavis
Tuesday, June 11: Closer report: Underrated Neris, Kingery, Kendrick
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