Hector Neris is not literally the last man standing in the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen, but good luck naming his colleagues at this point. While David Robertson, Seranthony Dominguez and several others expected to handle key late-inning roles have fallen to injuries, and might not return at all this season, Neris thrives. No, Neris is not having a season like Edwin Diaz or Blake Treinen did in 2018, and he is not a lock for 30-plus saves and awesome peripherals. If you want
Neris has permitted a .168 batting average and .269 slugging percentage on his trademark splitter for his career, according to Brooks Baseball, and this season those numbers are even better -- plus they include a .067 isolated power figure. Nobody does this, especially with (mostly) one pitch. I guess Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen does, to a degree, with his cutter, but he has had statistical hiccups for permitting power over the past year. Neris was not perfect in 2018; he earned a demotion back to the minor leagues when he could not control his splitter.
The Phillies have problems, and could fall out of first place in the NL East today, but Neris is doing his job and seems embarrassingly underrated by fantasy managers. OK, so perhaps Neris is rostered in your league because everyone in your league pays attention and would not allow someone with 13 saves and a 1.95 ERA to remain on free agency. I get it. However, in ESPN standard leagues, Neris remains available in more than half of them. Jose Alvarado and Jose Leclerc are among those rostered in more leagues. It makes little sense.
Neris returned to the big leagues on August 15, 2018, and manager Gabe Kapler had others to save games. He had others early this season too. He has thrown 45 1/3 innings and struck out 75 hitters in that span with a 1.99 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Plenty of pitchers have more saves since then, but few boast a better ERA and strikeout rate. I am not sure what more fantasy managers need to see. Sure, Neris could lose it all again just like last season, and Vince Velasquez could turn into a closer, but that seems unlikely. Neris looks like a 30-save closer with a sub-2.00 ERA. Go get him.
Monday takeaways
• OK, this home run thing is getting a little ridiculous. Arizona swatted a few more home runs just while you read this. Even the Phillie Phanatic went yard! Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park served up a new MLB record 13 home runs on Monday, some through the rain, and three players hit multiples. Eduardo Escobar is having a terrific season but Scott Kingery and Ildemaro Vargas? Kingery entered the proceedings with four home runs and then added a third to that total with opposite field launches. Vargas doubled his season total from the first 41 games. Baseball is on pace for more than 1,000 more home runs than -- not in 1975 -- but last season. This new game is not the same, and for fantasy purposes, it changes how we build teams. I have noted for years that a mixed fantasy roster can no longer support a Billy Hamilton-type offering next to nothing in home runs and RBIs. Of course, Jarrod Dyson homered Monday as well and might reach double digits this season, along with 25 steals. In one of my key leagues, I have plenty of power based on 2018 totals, but my team can still move up like five spots in home runs and RBIs, so apparently I need even more. Fantasy managers want clarity, but in this new game, where Tommy La Stella might blast 30 home runs, there simply is none.
• I do like Kingery quite a bit, if I did not make this clear 13 months ago, and this new version is aggressive and laying off pitches that will merely strike him out. However, he will not be hitting .324 for long with a 3.6 percent walk rate and a 25.2 strikeout rate. Sure, there are outliers, but it is not happening here. He is not Javier Baez. I do think Kingery has future 20-homer, 20-steal seasons in him, but batting average will be a problem with this plate discipline, and the Phillies are 27th in MLB in stolen bases because the organizational philosophy thinks stealing bases is not worth the risk. They might be correct and ahead of the curve, but for fantasy, where half the league's teams have stolen fewer than 30 bases, it makes the Dyson types too valuable based on their other offensive achievements. I might be more inclined to punt steals than any other category now. It might also make Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi a top-20 pick in 2020, just like Washington's Trea Turner.
• I really gave little pre-show thought to my bold statement on Monday's Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast about dropping Cincinnati first baseman Joey Votto for Washington professional hitter Howie Kendrick, but the latter keeps on hitting. Kendrick is at .333 with 11 home runs and 40 RBIs. Yeah, I wish I had Kendrick over Votto in one league ... I would be doing a lot better. Looking ahead, same deal. Kendrick will keep playing too. The Nationals have a good, deep lineup, even if youngster Victor Robles keeps sputtering, and the NL East is wide open. Kendrick might knock in 100 runs. No, really.
• I would not have started Angels right-hander Griffin Canning against the mighty Dodgers Monday, but six innings and three earned runs later, the rookie continues to shine, sporting a 0.99 WHIP through eight starts. Still, I consider starts at Coors Field and others against the Dodgers and Astros to too dangerous unless the starting pitcher is a safer one. As for lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, I hate to keep thinking about his lack of durability because right now he is pitching like the best option in baseball. Well, he and Lucas Giolito.
• Braves lefty Dallas Keuchel debuted for Class-A Rome on Monday and fanned nine over seven scoreless innings. The fact that many of the hitters he faced were 20 years old should matter, and cause fantasy managers to not overreact, but they will anyway. Hey, Keuchel can still make 20 great starts for the big league Braves, or they can be average ones, but Monday told us nothing, really. Well, the actual Braves game told us more about Kevin Gausman, who was gifted a 5-1 lead and still did not make it through three innings. Move on from him like the Braves soon will.
• Braves third baseman Josh Donaldson, always full of emotion, precipitated a bench-clearing incident in the first inning that got himself and Pirates right-hander Joe Musgrove tossed. Nothing should have happened after an innocent hit-by-pitch that barely grazed Donaldson's shirt, of course, but baseball players and their unwritten rules -- "he looked at me!" -- overrode things. Donaldson is not having the season so many thought he would and, frankly, he is what he is at this point and -- it is not a top-100 fantasy option. Word is Musgrove will start Thursday afternoon after barely pitching Monday, but still, he is robbed of a legit (with innings) two-start week and let us not even get into the fact that middle relievers asked to mop up innings and save a bullpen get demoted for their efforts. Alex McRae and Philly's Ranger Suarez will likely get sent to Triple-A for doing nothing wrong. This whole situation stinks.
Health report
• Red Sox outfielder J.D. Martinez returned from a four-game hiatus for back spasms and reached base three times. Apparently, all is well. Martinez was never going to have the same numbers as last season, but despite all the whining, he is hitting .301 and on pace for 30 home runs. For those in dynasty formats, Martinez has already played 17 outfield games, and I would think even if back issues persist, he will get the three needed to trigger 2020 eligibility there.
• White Sox infielder Yoan Moncada left Monday's game prematurely for upper-back spasms, and one would think an injured list stint results. Moncada seems to have blossomed, as he is hitting .295 with 12 home runs, but things do not add up. I would try to trade him. The ridiculous K rate has dropped some, but with that, he is drawing far fewer walks. A switch-hitter, Moncada still cannot do much of anything hitting right-handed. And the lone player with more PA than Moncada and a higher BABIP than his .378 mark is Baez. Add in back spasms and I run away.
Closing time
• Rangers right-hander Shawn Kelley blew the Monday save against Boston and the cries for Jose Leclerc to return to the closing role will be heard all over. The thing is, manager Chris Woodward went to Chris Martin for the 11th-inning save. Leclerc permitted runs in two weekend games against the Athletics. Perhaps he was unavailable to pitch, or perhaps he is not going to close anytime soon. It is mid-June. Move on.
• Boston right-hander Matt Barnes blew his fourth save, but in a traditional way as the ninth-inning option, and perhaps manager Alex Cora does not give him another chance anytime soon. Who gets the chance? Likely the same committee from the first 10 weeks, with Ryan Brasier, Marcus Walden, Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman. The Red Sox are not way out of first place because of their bullpen. The team is 10th in bullpen ERA. The Chicago Cubs, another team doing fine with relievers but who overreacted anyway and gave Craig Kimbrel three years, are ninth.
W2W4
• The big Mets-Yankees series that was supposed to start Monday before rain intervened gets going on Tuesday, with lefties Jason Vargas and James Paxton hurling. One of them has a 1.85 ERA over the past two months and comes off a shutout. It is not Paxton. Just sayin'. Paxton does dominate at Yankee Stadium, however, so expect nothing different here. Keep an eye on Mets third baseman Todd Frazier as well. Most of us considered him done as a fantasy asset, but three home runs and nine RBIs just this month is making us reconsider.
• Rockies rookie right-hander Peter Lambert hushed the Cubs bats at Wrigley Field in his debut, and now he gets the rematch at Coors Field. If Lambert pitched for any other team, fantasy managers would have made him the most added player of the week. He pitches for the Rockies, however. Some pitchers overcome the ballpark; lefty Kyle Freeland had a terrific 2018 season. German Marquez did too. Do not look at Lambert's minor league numbers, for much of them came in altitude similar to or higher than Denver. If Lambert rocks again on Tuesday, he will become more popular than the Angels' Canning, who is on the most-added list, for example. I am not sure I would rank him that way, but surely this is something to watch.
Most recent KaraBlogs
Monday, June 10: Sad numbers: Votto RBI, Desmond SB, Jose Ramirez
Thursday, June 6: Free-agent report: Gregorius, Kendrick, Bruce, etc.
Wednesday, June 5: Cesar Hernandez, sneaky-good run-scorers
Tuesday, June 4: Closer report: Cardinals, Mariners, Astros
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