The knee injury suffered by Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Andrew McCutchen on Monday night was about as bad as it could get. McCutchen indeed tore his ACL, and the No. 38 outfielder on the Player Rater will not play again in 2019. The Phillies summoned top 2017 pick Adam Haseley to handle center field against right-handers, and fantasy managers should
On first glance, some will wonder how McCutchen was a top-50 fantasy outfielder at all, as he was not doing anything special in four of the five roto categories, hitting .256 with 10 home runs, 29 RBIs and 2 stolen bases. Yawn. However, McCutchen scored 45 runs in 59 games. We know that runs are generally a function of lineup construction, as other than batters scoring themselves with home runs, it takes other players to knock one in. The Phillies have Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and others to knock the runs in, and McCutchen, a points-league darling due to the myriad walks -- only Mike Trout has more! -- was surely valuable in that respect.
For roto leagues, I do find that many a manager simply overlooks the runs category. The Phillies will turn to second baseman Cesar Hernandez -- a frustrating but serviceable player, who draws walks and runs well but fails to effectively steal bases -- to lead off. He will score runs mainly because it is considerably easier to do so while hitting first in the lineup than sixth. Hernandez scored 91 runs last season and 85 the year prior. He certainly could be a top-10 second baseman if he hits and scores as in the past, as he should. Runs matter!
We shall get to the scope of readily available outfield replacements in Thursday's blog entry, which discusses free agents by position, but for today, we focus on runs scored among the overlooked set. Hernandez is a prime example. So are these other players, listed in order of runs scored so far, but certainly not for the future.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Texas Rangers (rostered in 68 percent of standard leagues): Choo, now 36, is a walk machine who, oddly enough, is sporting his lowest (but still above average) rate since the Reagan administration, but thanks to a .302 batting average and 11 home runs, remains a points-league hero. He is underrated for roto leagues as well, thanks to the 41 runs scored, tied for 16th in baseball. The Rangers lead the major leagues in runs per game (shocker!). Choo is a major reason.
Leury Garcia, OF, Chicago White Sox (7.6 percent): A surprising leadoff hitter with 38 runs and a helpful seven stolen bases, Garcia offers no power or plate discipline, which is a problem, but for those in roto leagues needing runs scored and steals, he can help a little. There is no sign that his regular playing duties are ending soon.
Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels (34.5 percent): Last year was simply terrible, as Calhoun hit .208 and made the 19 home runs not worth it. Now he is at .238, and with his highest walk rate, and perhaps on his way to a career best in home runs. Calhoun has spent half the season leading off, but with Tommy La Stella and David Fletcher doing it better, that theme likely ends. Still, Calhoun knocks himself in enough to score 80-plus runs.
Adam Eaton, OF, Washington Nationals (67.6 percent): I am critical because I care. I want Eaton to also hit for average and steal bases as he did in his White Sox days. Alas, he is underachieving across the board, but he is, thanks to Anthony Rendon, on pace for more than 100 runs. Those matter too.
Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees (29.4 percent): His work as the leadoff hitter has been underwhelming (.283 OBP), but even if he hits ninth with this deep lineup, he will score runs. The Yankees have decisions to make when the big boppers return to health, and Gardner versus Clint Frazier -- no defensive maven, he -- will be one of them. If Gardner plays, thanks merely to what is around him, he cannot help but score runs.
Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves (63 percent): One of the more underrated players in fantasy in relation to roster figures. Swanson hits second in a strong lineup and is on pace for 32 home runs, 113 RBI, 16 steals and 89 runs. He is the No. 27 hitter on the full-season Player Rater. He should be more popular in all formats.
Renato Nunez, 3B, Baltimore Orioles (23.6 percent): Nearly half his runs have come when he homered, but there is no indication the power will suddenly stop, either.
David Fletcher, 2B/SS/3B/OF, Los Angeles Angels (62.3 percent): One of my new fave players leads off occasionally and is making contact a silly 94 percent of the time. I love this guy! Among the most added players in ESPN standard leagues, he is going to score many runs. Since he is rostered in more than 50 percent of leagues, he is ineligible for Thursday's blog entry, but what he is doing is legit and a better approximation of what McCutchen was doing, since Fletcher hits for average.
Tuesday takeaways
• Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Chase Anderson made the most-added list for the past week because he had a juicy home matchup against the Miami Marlins Tuesday. The Marlins won 16-0. Anderson was gone after four innings and four runs and avoided the 11-run fifth inning. Yes, even the blind squirrel finds the acorn or something like that. The Marlins remain bad offensively, but for one night, greedy fantasy managers lost out. While Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro and other Marlins underachieve, Garrett Cooper, who homered among four hits and four runs Tuesday, could matter. He has knocked in runs in five of seven contests.
• Some have suggested the Brewers deserved this result after demoting worthy second baseman Keston Hiura so .156-hitting Travis Shaw could come off the injured list and reclaim a starting job. Well, I do not know about jinxes, folks. Shaw singled, doubled, walked and committed an error. He is now hitting .174! It is actually a decent time to buy low on him, even as so many remain stuck with Hiura in their weekly lineups. Shaw did top 30 home runs each of the past two seasons and he is second base eligible.
• Name the only team that has used no more than their original five starting pitchers this season. I will wait. You will not guess. It is the Marlins! Yes, Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez, Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Richards and Jose Urena answer the trivia question. Smith is the only one rostered in more than 12.4 percent of leagues, and I get it, but Lopez has mad upside if he can pitch effectively, as he did Tuesday, in road games. Richards is solid as well.
• Orioles catcher Pedro Severino smacked three home runs in a 12-11 win over the Rangers. Lots of good pitching and defense in this one! Severino homered once in May, so let us not expect him to turn into Gary Sanchez, but note a solid .288 batting average and decent plate discipline. Severino vaulted to the No. 16 spot among catchers on the Player Rater. Would I call him a pending top-10 option? No, but the No. 10 option is Oakland's Josh Phegley. One more good game and Severino is there. Stream your catchers -- and add Severino, just in case -- unless you boast one of the five or six backstops worth relying on. I do not think top amateur pick Adley Rutschman needs to worry about Severino blocking his path to the majors. (Not yet.)
• Oakland Athletics outfielder Ramon Laureano can clearly do more than just dominate defensively. Laureano homered and stole a base Tuesday, and he boasts a 15-game hitting streak. The Athletics hit him low in the order, which is not ideal but fair, based on his lack of on-base skills, but some projected a 20-20 season here and it remains possible.
• It still looks like Detroit Tigers first baseman -- now a DH, basically -- Miguel Cabrera is all but done for fantasy purposes, despite his stunning grand slam off Tampa Bay Rays ace Blake Snell. Cabrera, hitting a useful .293, now has all of three home runs in 55 games. Only 253 players have more, including two other Cabreras (Asdrubal, Melky). Cabrera has bad knees and at some point the Tigers, still on the hook for four seasons after this one, might shut him down for surgery. As with Albert Pujols, you should know better than to invest in future Hall of Famers simply because they helped you five seasons ago.
• As for Tuesday's pitchers, Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu continues to toy with big league hitters, lowering his ERA to 1.35, and while that is simply a ridiculous number and likely to double, at the least, his FIP is 2.53. I think we would all take that as well. I watched the delayed first inning in St. Louis as Cincinnati Reds right-hander Luis Castillo, coming off a three-outing stretch in which none were quality starts and he walked eight hitters in 13⅓ innings, allow a leadoff Matt Carpenter home run, then permit two more base runners, and I said "Here we go again." But we did not. Castillo fanned six over eight innings, allowing only the one run. He did walk four. His ERA is 2.38. We shall take it.
Health report
• San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. singled and walked in Day 2 of his rehab assignment for the Double-A Amarillo Sod Poodles. Yes, that is what they call themselves. I respect it. So should you. Tatis is among the most dropped shortstops in ESPN standard leagues because many people lack any semblance of patience, but he is going to end up as a top-10 option, so check your league to see if this potential superstar is out there. He is available in nearly a quarter of ESPN standard formats. Look for him in the Padres lineup this weekend, with Manny Machado heading back to third base.
Closing time
• Chicago Cubs right-hander Pedro Strop not only came off the injured list Tuesday, but later converted his fifth save with a perfect ninth inning. I thought manager Joe Maddon might work his closer back into the role but it did not happen. Strop is the guy. I still doubt the Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel or get brittle Brandon Morrow back at any point from his arm woes, so yeah, if you want saves, Strop can get to 20 or so.
W2W4
• Brewers right-hander Jimmy Nelson makes his first start since 2017, when he faces the Marlins. Nelson ruined his shoulder while running the bases that September. Enough with the "strategy" of pitchers woefully attempting to hit and run; we need universal DH. I bet Nelson wants it. Anyway, even before the Marlins scored two touchdowns -- with two-point conversions -- at Milwaukee on Tuesday I said Nelson should be added to fantasy rosters but to benches initially. If he throws a no-hitter, I will disavow those comments. Seriously, do not expect the Marlins to go on some hitting spree now. Studies show there is often no correlation from game to game, even for good teams.
• Yankees lefty James Paxton is regarded as a top-20 fantasy hurler and for good reason, but I also cannot help but notice the startling disparity between his home and road numbers, albeit in brief action. Paxton boasts a 0.34 ERA in five home starts, and a 7.20 road ERA in three others. Those outings came at Baltimore, Houston and San Francisco, and two of those teams do not hit, Tuesday results notwithstanding. Do not worry about Paxton for this start in Toronto, but if it goes poorly, is there a story angle here? For the record, among starters with at least 20 road innings pitched and an ERA on the wrong side of 6.00, the only top-50 pitchers on the list there are Miles Mikolas, Aaron Nola, Jack Flaherty and Carlos Carrasco, and I am not worried about any of them, either. Yet.
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