HOUSTON -- Houston Astros star Alex Bregman entered Wednesday's game with the Chicago Cubs on pace for 49 home runs and 110 runs batted in, and fantasy managers could not be happier. Well, to be fair, that is actually not correct. They could be happier if Bregman were stealing more bases. In 2017, his first full season in the majors, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2015 amateur draft stole 17 bases in 22 attempts. Last season, while finishing among the top five in AL MVP voting, he stole 10 bases in 14 chances.
This season, well, don't ask. We might be thinking about it, but Bregman
"I don't know, I might run more now that you said that, I'm not sure," chuckled Bregman, nevertheless a top-20 hitter on the ESPN Fantasy Player Rater, during batting practice Wednesday, hours before a tough 2-1 loss. "I haven't thought about it. I have to get hits and get on base to steal bases, and I need to do a better job of that. It's hard to run in front of [Michael] Brantley and [Carlos] Correa because those guys bang."
Well, one of those guys will not be banging for a while, but we shall get to that soon. For Bregman, he remains a stellar fantasy option, but those who invested cannot help but dream about those potential 40 home runs coming with double-digit steals. So far, with roughly a third of the season complete, he is 2-for-3 in attempts. He didn't attempt one on Wednesday night in a pitcher's duel between Kyle Hendricks and Wade Miley. Bregman's .270 batting average is below his career mark, thanks in part to a low BABIP. He has mentioned wanting to improve his batting average quite a bit to reporters lately, but overall he remains a fantasy stalwart.
Perhaps Bregman might be more inclined to steal a base or two with Correa, the big story around these parts on Wednesday, out for at least the next month and perhaps through the All-Star break with a broken rib suffered during ... a massage at his home, which he explained in a press release.
Bregman and underrated Brantley are doing wondrous things, as the Astros are among the top five in runs scored despite injured list stints for key offensive producers Jose Altuve, George Springer and Correa, all currently out. Altuve could return from a hamstring injury later this week.
Back to the steals: I asked spirited Tony Kemp, who stole 76 bases during the 2014 and '15 minor league seasons before his 2016 promotion to the Astros, about the change in philosophy when it comes to stealing bases in the majors. Kemp smiled when I asked him if he could steal 30-plus bags in today's game. Of course he could, even though the personnel is better and the stakes are higher. Fantasy managers do not want to hear about all this, obviously.
"Yeah, you know, once you get to the major leagues you have guys who can throw better from behind the dish, pitchers more aware of the runners, better at holding the ball and better at mixing up their holds," said Kemp, stealer of 15 bases on 20 chances in 207 big league games. "It makes it a little more difficult. It is different because when you are in the majors, every game counts. When you're in the minor leagues, you can kind of work on things and work on jumps. It's hard to get baserunners on in the big leagues, and once he gets on, you want him to score. I think that is why people are a little bit more passive when it comes to baserunning. I think that is the reason."
With Springer and Altuve gone from the lineup, outfielder Derek Fisher is getting a chance to lead off, despite the many pleas from Astros fans and fantasy managers to promote top prospects like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Fisher was once a top prospect, and from 2015 to 2017 across four minor league levels, he averaged 21 home runs and 25 steals per season. However, Fisher struggled upon promotion for the 2017 and 2018 Astros, hitting .196 in 252 plate appearances. He is back again, capable of working a count and drawing a walk, and perhaps more fantasy managers should give him a look, because Springer is not returning to the lineup soon.
"I think it's just learning from past experiences and understanding what I have to do to succeed here," said Fisher, who struck out three times on Wednesday. "I feel like I got a little bit more of a simple plan now and am getting a lot more out of myself. I have the same routine every day."
When asked about stealing bases in the majors, Fisher echoed what Kemp said, and it made me wonder about sluggers who found it so easy to run in the minors and then simply ceased the practice in the majors, like Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson. He was a 30/30 player in 2014 and averaged 28 steals in four minor league seasons, but he has stolen just 15 bases in 32 attempts over six big league campaigns. Perhaps fantasy managers should lower expectations in that sense.
"This isn't the minor leagues anymore," Fisher noted. "So everybody can throw, and everybody can pitch, and everybody knows when to and when not to run. You have to pick and choose your spots, and obviously there are guys on this team who can drive in runs. You've got multiple potential MVPs on this team."
As for Correa (the No. 15 shortstop on the full-season Player Rater), like Bregman, he is not the base stealer he once was, but still, he has a .907 OPS and was on pace for 30 home runs before the injury. Keep him rostered even though he will fall well short of 150 games played for the third consecutive season. Correa stole 14 bases in earning AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2015, over just 99 games, and then stole 13 bases in 2016. In 269 games and 1,163 plate appearances since the start of the 2017 season, Correa is 6-for-7 on stolen base attempts.
Unfortunately, there is no massaging of the truth, and it is not merely an Astros thing. Steals are not plentiful, and the game has changed.
Astros notes: Bregman's batting practice session was a joy to watch. Yes, it is just batting practice, but he squares up every ball, with his hands held high, and all can see the fruits of analytic labor changes in recent seasons. Ground ball rate is down. More fly balls and line drives. Everything hit hard. What a hitter. ... Look for Bregman to handle regular shortstop duties with Correa out, meaning he should qualify at both shortstop and third base for 2020. He already boasted this eligibility for the duration of 2019. Yuli Gurriel can play third base and Kemp is a second baseman. ... Gurriel hit cleanup Wednesday. Myriad RBI chances are coming, but the lineup is no longer deep. ... I would like to see what speedy switch-hitter Myles Straw, a shortstop, could do at this level after his Wednesday promotion, but he might not play much. Plus, no Astro has more than four steals.
On the pitching side, for all those complaining that Miley cannot be rostered in a points or roto league due to his lack of strikeouts, he fanned nine Cubs in seven innings. He allowed two solo home runs and little else. His ERA is 3.25, and while he did not win this one, he had won four of five outings. There is value in using Miley despite the low strikeout totals. Look at Hendricks on the other side: The most whiffs he has had in a season is 170, but thanks to his low ERA and WHIP, he is an annual top-40 starter and near top-20 when he wins a lot.
One final Astros note: Top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley has brutal statistics, and now we know why. He has shoulder fatigue, and he went on the minor league injured list. I think those investing in redraft formats can move on. There is also no more information about whether Alvarez and/or Tucker will get the call to the majors soon, no matter what they hit at Triple-A, but I sense that Alvarez, who unlike Tucker has yet to hit in the majors, comes first when the Super 2 date -- within two weeks? -- passes. He can handle DH duties.
Cubs notes: Kris Bryant returned to the lineup as the DH after missing a few games from Sunday's outfield collision with Jason Heyward and homered over the center-field fence in the third inning. Bryant said he had "very minor" concussion symptoms. He will return to playing the field this weekend at St. Louis. ... Kyle Schwarber led off the game with an opposite-field home run off lefty Miley. Schwarber entered play with an OPS 171 points better against lefties, which is aberrant but shows how disappointing he has been against right-handers. Sorry, but I am not buying this player. He might hit 26 home runs, like he has the past two seasons, but that .227 batting average -- for his career! -- is not a fluke.
Other Wednesday takeaways
• Neither New York Yankees lefty James Paxton nor San Diego Padres right-hander Chris Paddack earned a win in the head-to-head matchup. However, Paxton came off the injured list and tossed four hitless innings, getting annoyingly pulled due to pitch count with a lead never threatened. He pitched well and now boasts a crazy 0.34 ERA over 26⅔ innings at Yankee Stadium this season. Paddack allowed three home runs. Granted, it is the Yankees, and even this version, sans so many top sluggers, can rake, but Paddack has struggled in two of three outings and recently missed a start with a sore neck. The Padres could easily manipulate his innings with an injured list stint.
• Seattle Mariners outfielder Mallex Smith stole his 13th base and looks to have the leadoff spot handled, though time will tell with Dee Gordon on the injured list. What I have noticed: Smith not only has five steals over three games but two walks and two strikeouts. It is no meaningful sample, but if he plans to practice better plate discipline, he can raise that batting average -- perhaps hit .275 the rest of the way? -- and steal a ton of bases.
• What has gotten into the Cleveland lineup? The Indians were shut out through seven innings at Fenway Park Tuesday, then erupted for seven runs in the final two innings to steal a win. On Wednesday, the Indians scored runs in each of the first seven innings and, despite a poor outing from Shane Bieber, won 14-9. (He "earned" the win.) Carlos Santana scored four times and drove in five runs. Jose Ramirez doubled twice. Rookie Oscar Mercado is the No. 2 hitter with speed. The Indians hit nary a triple in their first 54 games and then hit three on Wednesday. Things sure look improved.
• Atlanta Braves right-hander Kevin Gausman managed to permit eight hits and eight runs while retiring just three Nationals. Seven of the hits were singles, and yes, he was unlucky, but still, every time Gausman, with excellent stuff and K potential, makes us care, he does something to make us not care. He entered Wednesday with three consecutive quality starts and more whiffs than innings on the season. Now his ERA is 5.56. I know why Touki Toussaint is in the bullpen, but I think he could be an excellent starter. Could the Braves get both Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel next week? Oh, by the way, Anibal Sanchez and his 0-6 record and 5.10 ERA came off the injured list and retired the first 16 Braves before allowing a hit. You do not want Sanchez on your fantasy team.
• Los Angeles Angels closer Hansel Robles blew his second save in three appearances, and his ERA rose to 4.26. Ty Buttrey has a 1.27 ERA. What am I missing here? In other closer news, Shawn Kelley notched another for the Rangers, but Jose Leclerc started the game, while Oakland's Blake Treinen and his next-in-line combined to permit seven runs as a 10-game winning streak ended. I think something is awry with Treinen and the numbers show it, but he loses his grip on saves only if he is hurt.
• A four-game Red Sox-Yankees series commences Thursday with lefties Chris Sale and J.A. Happ on the mound. Sale fanned only five Astros in his most recent outing, but in his five May appearances, he has struck out 56 hitters in 32 ⅓ innings. Think about that ridiculousness for a minute. I am also curious, for Thursday purposes, to see if Minnesota Twins lefty Martin Perez can contain the Rays (I am a bit skeptical) and continue his success, and whether the Angels let Mike Trout and his sore foot suit up (I hope so). The Angels scored 12 runs without him Wednesday.
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