St. Louis Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter was a top-50 selection in ESPN average live drafts a season ago, and then he was on ESPN's most dropped list, with a .145 batting average on May 15. Frankly, he was on the list for weeks by that point. How did that turn out for those who moved on? Poorly, to be succinct.
Carpenter turned things around, like most relevant, established players do, and hit 28 home runs in June, July and August. No, I certainly was not expecting him to revive his season quite like that, but I do believe it is wise at a player's low point to invest and gain the positive numbers, too. Those who ask me about a struggling Carpenter after four weeks this season get an obvious answer: Look at last year. Positive things seem likely, so be patient.
However, it would be silly to include all players in one pithy response and say all will be well. Fantasy managers regardless of sport love to panic after small samples -- well, perhaps they cannot help themselves -- and colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft and I often urge patience in our writing and on the twice-a-week Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast (Mondays and Thursdays).
Some players must concern us, right? Yes, of course that is the case. Fantasy managers are moving on from slow starters Yasiel Puig, Jesus Aguilar, Jose Peraza and Brian Dozier -- each a top-100 hitter in drafts -- and I cannot argue the premise, but I am similarly concerned about an actual top-25 hitter, and it is not Cleveland Indians infielder Jose Ramirez, at least not to this level.
Chicago Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant is 27 and supposedly in his prime. He won a Rookie of the Year award and NL MVP honors in his first two seasons. He was awesome, and fantasy managers loved him. Last season he hit nicely, as expected, until a left shoulder injury in June ruined things. If we only knew then.
Bryant homered in his first game off the injured list but slugged a mere three home runs in his final 35 contests. He walked less because pitchers challenged him more, knowing that he remained hurt, and clearly he did not look like his normal self at the plate.
Bryant still does not look good, hitting .221 with only one more home run than you or I through 20 games. He keeps hitting second in the lineup and scored a run in the 7-2 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday, but that came after a walk. Dodgers right-hander Kenta Maeda was terrible, but Bryant, after his first-inning free pass, could not partake in the fun, as he popped out to second base and third base in ensuing plate appearances, then meekly flied out to right field against lefty Julio Urias.
Bryant is a hitter who uses all fields, but I see a hitter who currently cannot handle high velocity to pull the ball. He is making contact but not hard contact, and while he is not among the leaders in ground ball rate, Bryant's rate is by far a career high. That is not good.
That all noted, nobody should be punting on Bryant, although considering a trade for a comparable player -- from preseason drafts, mostly -- is a reasonable direction. This is not quite like Carpenter, who was never a top-10 fantasy option like Bryant. It seems obvious that Bryant's shoulder, the front one when he bats, remains an issue. If I could ask him about it, I doubt I would get an answer corroborating anything, but just watch him. Hitters make constant adjustments, as Carpenter did, and one would assume Bryant is no different.
The balky shoulder did not require offseason surgery, and player and team pronounced Bryant fully healthy in spring training, but what are they going to say? You cannot alert pitchers to a weakness, though I think they figure it out.
Fantasy managers must be patient and hope that a terrific player regains strength. It can happen. Carpenter never really said what he altered in his swing or approach, but things improved. I remember a Mike Lowell season -- his last in Florida, and yes, I am not really 29 years old -- when he simply could not hit as he should have. His 2005 was the aberrant season among a decade of steady work, and now, in retrospect, we know he battled injury.
Would we rather he had sat out a month to heal? Sure! I do not like that Los Angeles Angels outfielder Justin Upton could miss half the season with a toe injury, but at least he is not in my daily lineup hitting .221 sans power. I stuck with Lowell for six months, and it was not fun.
Bryant could do this in 2019 -- just give us 600-plus plate appearances of disappointment, perhaps 12 home runs and a hollow .270 batting average, albeit with walks because he still knows the strike zone. I hope it does not happen. I roster him in an important league. Perhaps Bryant does what was expected and hits 25-plus home runs. Perhaps he needs another offseason to rest. I do not know. I do know that this is not so much fun, though it is still April. The difference here is we know of the injury, but unless the Cubs sit him, nobody will discuss it.
Yes, if I were a Bryant investor, I would consider both actionable directions here: stick with him and enjoy the good stuff when he regains shoulder strength, but consider moving him for Nicholas Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez or some other top-50 hitter who could easily outperform Bryant the rest of the way. Who cares which player was the first one chosen in a draft or garnered a higher auction fee? I think things with Bryant must improve because he has proven himself reliable and consistent, but we know the injury and sometimes things just ... last.
Tuesday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
• Luke Voit, 1B, New York Yankees: 2-for-4, 2 HRs, 3 runs
• Franmil Reyes, OF, San Diego Padres: 2-for-4, 2 HRs, 3 RBIs
• Travis Shaw, 2B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers: 2-for-4, 2 HRs, 2 RBIs
• Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K's
• Pablo Lopez, SP, Miami Marlins: 6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K's
Lowlights:
• Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers: 1-for-9, 4 K's
• J.D. Martinez, OF, Boston Red Sox: 1-for-8, 4 K's
• Ivan Nova, SP, Chicago White Sox: 4 IP, 11 H, 9 ER, 3 BB, 4 K's
• Lance Lynn, SP, Texas Rangers: 3 1/3 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K's
• Kenta Maeda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 4 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 5 K's
Tuesday takeaways
Luke Voit's homer was an AL-best 4th in the 1st inning this season.
It also extended his on-base streak to a @MLB-best 34 games. pic.twitter.com/UmcnFTWbel
- MLB Stats (@MLBStats) April 24, 2019
• Luke Voit always hit in the minor leagues but was not supposed to hit like this in the major leagues. Some hitters are late-bloomers, but when it comes to first basemen, perhaps it happens because they lack real opportunity. Ranking Voit as a top-10 first baseman back in March would have seemed silly, but now, would you not prefer him to Joey Votto? What about Matt Carpenter and Jesus Aguilar? Christian Walker is another example of a hit-first option who is not particularly young for the sport but just needed a chance. We all saw it. Aguilar emerged last season to hit 35 home runs, and few prepared for it. Things such as this are likely cyclical, but when I see a hulking first baseman with minor league power getting a big league chance, as Aguilar, Walker and Voit did, I pay more attention now. When the Yankees get healthy, Voit will pile on the runs batted in.
• I do not want to believe in Texas Rangers utilityman Danny Santana because we have seen enough of him over the years to know that he cannot keep hitting .333 with a .962 OPS and a stolen base every other game for long. He will not, so if you invest, do not part with someone a lot better, which is most players. The Rangers will get Rougned Odor back from injury soon, pitchers will stop challenging Santana, and he will slump. Enjoy this while it lasts. Odor could return this weekend.
• I do not want to overrate one swing, but Boston Red Sox third baseman Michael Chavis homered. I think there could be 20 more this season, especially if the club cannot get clarity at second base or Rafael Devers needs a platoon at third. Chavis hits, and this will not be the last time I mention it.
• Pretend I did not recommend Baltimore Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins back in March. Yeah, I thought he could reach base enough to steal 20 bases. I no longer believe that after pitchers dominated him, and he currently plays for Triple-A Norfolk. The Orioles should bring him back, however, because playing Joey Rickard regularly aids nobody. Baltimore is hardly playoff-bound, but the Orioles are 16th in runs scored after hammering Ivan Nova on Tuesday. Jonathan Villar and the only popular Oriole in preseason drafts, Trey Mancini, soon joined him, but now Renato Nunez and Dwight Smith Jr. are worth adding in deeper formats as well.
• The Seattle Mariners plan to promote lefty Justus Sheffield for Friday but for a relief role after lefty Yusei Kikuchi opens the game. It is weird. The Mariners want to limit Kikuchi's innings, which is fine, but by limiting a start every few weeks to one inning. Sheffield plays the Ryan Yarbrough role, which could be nice, but it is likely temporary. Add Sheffield at your own risk, for he might be back in Triple-A before next week.
Health report
• Cleveland Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco hurt his left knee while covering first base in the fourth inning and was done after he finished the inning. And it was against the Marlins. Carrasco tossed four shutout innings. I think that would have continued. Now we await word on his MRI. I want to be positive, but I suspect Carrasco will miss at least a start or two.
Closing time
• Lefty Zach Britton saved the Yankees' win in Anaheim, but Aroldis Chapman investors need not worry. He pitched the prior two games. Britton obviously boasts significant ninth-inning experience, and since Chapman has barely reached 50 innings each of the past two seasons and his fastball velocity is way down this season, it is not a bad idea for Chapman investors to add Britton. Just in case.
• I cannot say for sure that Miami Marlins right-hander Sergio Romo will even save more games than Britton, but when the Marlins get a save chance, it is clear that Romo gets it. Perhaps Romo ends up with a contender before August, but even the worst teams, capable of 100 losses, can provide a relief pitcher with 30 save chances. I think Romo will save more than 20 games.
• Add Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Emilio Pagan if you desire, but I believe lefty Jose Alvarado remains the closer, though he did not save the past two wins because of workload. Backup closer Diego Castillo was unavailable as well. Then again, it is the Rays. They can prove a point that anyone can close. I just cannot see Pagan continuing to save games.
W2W4
• The floundering Phillies try to take a game from the Mets at Citi Field and on ESPN, with on-field fireworks likely. A pair of Mets were plunked Monday, though likely not intentionally. Then Mets reliever Jacob Rhame nearly hit Rhys Hoskins twice in the ninth inning of a 9-0 game Tuesday. Vince Velasquez might seem like a decent option against the Mets with how he has performed of late, but I would avoid it. The Phillies are angry, and Velasquez figures to retaliate early and return the message. Expect runs in this one, especially with Jason Vargas hurling.
• Yankees lefty CC Sabathia needs six strikeouts to become the 17th pitcher to register 3,000 in a career. No, Sabathia is not a young man and the fantasy value is muted, but he did not permit an earned run in his first two outings of the season, and the Angels -- Mike Trout notwithstanding -- do not present much trouble. Sabathia as a streamer for Wednesday seems wise, especially since the Angels are hitting .201 against lefties and slugging .313.
Most recent KaraBlogs
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Tuesday, April 16: Closer report, Raisel Iglesias struggles