Never trade away the best player in a deal, right? Not necessarily -- there are very few absolutes in fantasy sports. Never give up is one. Always try to get better is another. That's it.
When evaluating a trade, it isn't about the relative merits of the players involved. Trades are about overall roster improvement, taking into consideration ancillary moves resulting in a legal active lineup. The objective is to leave with greater points-scoring potential. If parting with the best player accomplishes that goal, so be it.
Granted, the shallower the league, the more likely acquiring the best player is beneficial since the quality of replacements to square rosters is greater. Still, even in 10- and 12-team mixed leagues, dealing the top player can be advantageous and shouldn't be categorically dismissed.
What follows is a review of many of the top-drafted players performing near or above expectations. The filter is players drafted in the top 50 overall currently residing in the top 30, according to the ESPN Player Rater. They'll be discussed from the perspective of the return necessary to send them to a competitor. The order is based on production through Tuesday's action.
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
The fact Bellinger is ranked ahead of Christian Yelich speaks toward his scorching start. The 2017 National League Rookie of the Year had a rough end to the 2018 campaign, including some October struggles emanating in losing playing time with a southpaw on the hill. While Bellinger is crushing right-handers so far, he's also handling lefties much better as well. It goes without saying a .397 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is unsustainable. However, Bellinger's 12 percent strikeout rate is half his career level and he's walking a little more. It's still early, but a change in contact rate is one of the first skills that can be speculated to be actionable. Thus, when the dust settles after impending regression, Bellinger's landing is likely to be better than initial expectations.
Dual first base and outfield eligibility is often overlooked, but it shouldn't be, especially in daily leagues. The ability to activate a reserve at either position, moving Bellinger to the other, increases points potential. Though dual eligibility does increase the number of competitors interested in Bellinger.
In total, it should take a king's ransom to deal Bellinger. To be honest, the play is kicking the tires to try to acquire Bellinger from a competitor looking to sell high. However, there's a solid change those rostering Bellinger drafted him at a discount, so they likely have two, maybe three players picked earlier. If these players are performing, cashing Bellinger in for a stud arm plus a very good bat might work, particularly if one of the earlier players was one of the many disappointing aces. Just don't deal Bellinger strictly to sell high, since there are hints he's primed to exceed initial expectations.
Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
After the break last season, nearly every other fly ball Yelich hit left the yard. How far it fell was anyone's guess, but there was no way Yelich could maintain a 48.1 percent home run per fly ball (HR/FB) level. Sure enough, it has plummeted all the way down to 40.6 percent! Putting that in perspective, the highest HR/FB mark is the 39.5 percent recorded by Ryan Howard in 2006. In fact, since the metric began being measured in 2002, there are only 15 instances of a qualified season eclipsing 30 percent.
Last season, Yelich posted a 35.0 percent mark. In most circumstances, a 5 percent leap would be considered variance. Why shouldn't it be the same here?
The party line with the 27-year-old fly chaser has been his home run potential is capped with a career 20.7 percent fly ball rate. Most sluggers check in above 35 percent. To date, Yelich is lofting batted balls at a 43.2 percent clip. What's truly remarkable is a career-high exit velocity is piggybacking the increased launch angle.
Mike Trout is still the gold standard. If starting a rest-of-season draft, Trout still should be the first pick. However, it would not be egregious to take Yelich, who needs to be ranked just behind Trout. As such, it's hard imagining a package worthy of his potential production. One possibility is an injury-riddled roster with several holes to plug. Remember, potential of the entire roster before and after the deal composes the algebra. This could be the rare instance quantity trumps quality.
Javier Baez, 2B/3B/SS, Chicago Cubs
Coming into the season, the concern with Baez was matching, let along bettering, last season's breakout based on sketchy plate skills. Even in today's landscape, a repeat of last year's 4.5 percent walk rate and 25.9 percent strikeout clip should lead to numbers worse than 2018. The early returns may suggest those worries were unwarranted. However, a closer look reveals a 4.4 BB% and 30.0 K%. Baez has been buoyed by a .377 BABIP, though it's backed by an increase in average exit velocity. Still, unless Baez improves is contact, a descent is coming.
Additional uneasiness revolves around steals. In 2018, Baez swiped a personal best 21, following seasons of just 10 and 12. To be fair, Baez played more last season, but there's reason to be leery he'll match last year's total, having attempted only two pilfers thus far, though he's been successful both times.
Like Bellinger, dealing away a multi-position player poses an issue since Baez's utility extends beyond the numbers he contributes. His flexibility paves the way for the best infielders to be active while also enhancing the inventory for free agent or waiver pickup. On the other hand, if a roster is dotted with other players qualifying at more than one spot, Baez's tri-eligibility is a great selling point. Baez's intangible could net a plus return of tangible stats for those with remaining flexibility. If a competitor is more of an eyeball ranker and naïve to the nuances of lucky BABIP and worsening contact, receiving a batter expected to produce a little more than Baez is within reason.
Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies
Story is on pace to mimic last season's production. Most noteworthy is he's still running at an accelerated clip. Trading Story is best suited for a deal in which the acquisition carries more specialized category influence (either homers or steals) to address a perceived roster deficiency. Dealing the shortstop for a pitching upgrade is also plausible, though finding a suitable dance partner could be difficult.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals
Rendon's high ranking is fueled by a .392 BABIP due for a downturn. It's not at all unusual for a player to enjoy a three- or four-week stretch of an exaggerated hit rate. This makes Rendon the prototypical "sell high" candidate since he's standing out due to good luck more than improved skills. In fact, Rendon is fanning at a clip above his career level.
The only caveat is, according to personal research posted for ESPN-plus last week, Rendon profiles as an aspirant in line to benefit from the juiced ball. Hitting 30-plus homers for the first time is a distinct possibility. Selling high on Rendon is fine if the return exceeds that of a 30-homer, .300 average hitter since that's the plausible baseline.
Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
While it's clear Altuve's power was hindered by injury last season, his career high in homers is 24, accomplished in 2016 and 2017. Keeping in mind the early returns suggest the 2019 MLB baseball resembles that from 2017, 24 is a plausible baseline for Altuve this season. That is, we already have a feel for how he'd benefit from a ball experiencing less drag. With nine homers already, there's a decent chance the second baseman sets a personal high. That said, Altuve's power pace will surely slow and there's mounting evidence he won't pick up the running game. This adds up to another classic sell-high player.
Altuve's draft-day stock dipped from his previous top-5 overall level. With such a productive start to the 2019 campaign, those leery of a rebound could be back on board, thus willing to pay a price exceeding Altuve's initial investment. This goes double for teams victimized by one of the many injuries to middle infielders. Trout and Yelich are off the table, but everyone else is in the mix.
Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals
Throughout draft season, Mondesi was one of the most divisive players -- proponents drooling over his power/speed potential with opponents warning of his poor plate approach. Thus far, both sides have proved prescient. Mondesi is producing close to what was expected by his truthers while fanning more and walking less than last season.
Plate skills of this nature are usually a harbinger of a slump. It won't be easy and requires a roster with a suitable stolen base foundation, but selling on Mondesi could pay dividends if there's someone else in the league on his bandwagon and is blind to the continued strikeout issues.
Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians
Bauer is one of the few starting pitchers fortunate enough to be devoid of a disaster outing and avoid injury. His worst effort is a 5 2/3-inning stint against the Tigers, allowing four runs on 10 hits. Everything else is two or fewer runs. His actual 2.20 ERA is low compared to a 3.42 xFIP and 3.54 SIERA, but even if the dominant right regresses toward those estimators, he's one of the most skilled pitchers in the league, likely to be in contention for American League Cy Young honors if he can stay healthy.
Dealing pitching for hitting makes sense from a game theory perspective. In rotisserie leagues, pitching can be managed. It takes work and a helping hand from Lady Luck, but it can be done. Hitting must be bullied. Sure, relying on likely overproducers like Bellinger and Yelich helps, but the best way to attack counting stats is volume. Circling back to the notion the equity of deals involves total roster construction, it's usually easier to backfill a departing pitcher, even one of Bauer's caliber. Pitching ratios can be managed; homers, runs, RBI and steals must be bullied.
The problem is, a pitcher like Bauer who racks up a treasure trove of strikeouts and eschews the home run onslaught is disproportionately useful in today's unsettled climate. The uncertainly revolves around not knowing which struggling pitchers will rebound and which could be more victimized by the likelihood of a juiced ball. Having that rotation anchor is doubly useful since not only does that afford an edge over competitors not drafting an ace, but more so on those dedicating serious assets to pitching, only to be disappointed.
Like with Yelich, it only makes sense to deal Bauer if the rest of the team is underperforming. Fortifying bats while receiving a decent arm in return could aid bullying counting stats. In some cases, it might be possible to get back a struggling starter like a Chris Sale or Corey Kluber along with hitting. Someone fixated on Gerrit Cole's bloated ERA and not underlying skills could be willing to deal for the seemingly safer Bauer.
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves
Dealing Acuna requires overcoming conformation bias. Be it shiny-new-toy syndrome or fear of missing out, those rostering Acuna have an emotional investment. Granted, this hobby can be played on many levels, but for the more serious enthusiasts, keeping it business and not personal alleviates the personal connection. No doubt, there's a competitor envious of those deploying Acuna and would likely part with almost anything to obtain them. OK, like with Altuve, Trout and Yelich are probably off limits. But Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Nolan Arenado and Alex Bregman are all viable.
Blake Snell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Assuming Snell avoids falling rocks while getting out of the shower, he should be fine after fracturing his toe in a freak accident. If there was any question heading into 2019, it was whether the defending AL Cy Young winner would keep the control gains displayed last season. Not only has he done that, he has sawed his improved 2018 walk rate in half, silencing any skeptics.
The rest of the analysis mirrors that of Bauer, except Snell has displayed a higher propensity for the long ball. That said, history suggests this is a small sample blip and probably not an artifact of the current hitting environment. Deal Snell with caution; he could be a difference-maker.
James Paxton, SP, New York Yankees
After a couple of shaky road efforts, Paxton followed up with a pair of gems in the Bronx. For the first part of his career, the lefty's fly ball tendencies were masked by T-Mobile Park (formerly Safeco Field). Paxton has yet to allow a long ball at home, spanning 19 2/3 innings. Along with a spotty health record, the potential of homers inflating Paxton's ERA were concerns on draft day. The early results are encouraging, but Paxton isn't out of the woods yet. The three lineups he has encountered -- Baltimore, Boston and Kansas City -- are all in the lower half of the league with respect to home run rate.
Paxton's fly balls will begin leaving Yankee Stadium. It will take a team with other pitchers performing well, perhaps someone like Luis Castillo, but Paxton profiles as the prototypical "sell high" candidate. Dealing for bats is optimal with an eye on the tier below the stud sticks, perhaps targeting the likes of Andrew Benintendi, George Springer, Mitch Haniger, etc.