It's finally happening. Toronto Blue Jays rookie third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be a major league player as of Friday, when he makes his debut against the Oakland A's. It should have happened in 2018, when Guerrero, the talented, eponymous son of the Hall of Fame outfielder, hit a ridiculous .381 and slugged .636 for four minor league affiliates, despite being a mere 19 years of age, announcing his presence as an impact player for years to come. Financial implications, of course, likely got in the way and then this March an oblique injury made things official: Guerrero would not make Toronto's big league squad to start the season.
Well, as expected, Guerrero healed and then he hit at Triple-A Buffalo. Boy, did he hit. He looks great, and fantasy managers all over cannot wait for major numbers to count for their teams. After all, Guerrero was at first a top-50 overall pick in ESPN average live drafts, even with a pending, controversial demotion likely, before the unfortunate injury both complicated and cleared up matters. Nothing is in the way now, no contract status, injury or other Blue Jays options block him. Guerrero is rostered in more than 95 percent of ESPN standard leagues, as he should be. This is an impact player. ... But what are reasonable expectations and whom would you trade for Guerrero right now?
While there is always some risk when it comes to players unproven at the highest level -- even the great Mike Trout struggled mightily in his first exposure to major league pitching -- Guerrero seems relatively guaranteed to produce right away. Fellow rookies Eloy Jimenez, the exciting Chicago White Sox outfielder, and mature San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. boast similar statistical excitement, and it is early, and they have to make adjustments at the plate, but they sure look like they belong. So will Guerrero.
So, how about New York Mets outfielder Michael Conforto and White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu when it comes to fantasy value? Yes, I would trade either for Guerrero straight up. They are top-50 fantasy hitters with power, if not sure things in batting average. Cincinnati Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez and Detroit Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos were top-40 hitters by ESPN ADP, boasting more offensive upside and, yes, I would trade either proven player for Guerrero as well. Already one can see how much I expect from Guerrero.
For comparison sakes, I am looking for players to compare that offer similar production, and avoiding pitchers and speedsters such as Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Lorenzo Cain and Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Starlin Marte. It is an apples-to-oranges debate, in a way. They do different things. Same with Reds first baseman Joey Votto and Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jean Segura. It depends on fantasy team need. I would take Guerrero over all these players, but if you're starving for steals and are already set in average and power, it may not make sense unless you intend to then flip Guerrero for the stats you do need.
Washington Nationals stars Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto feels like the line to me. Yes, it is all judgement. These are top-25 hitters by ADP. I would not trade Rendon for Guerrero. Rendon hits for power and average and has proven it for years, is off to a great start and is mighty motivated by contract. Soto has not proven himself in the majors for even one calendar year. That is my line. That is going by ADP, and your rankings/opinions might be different.