It started overseas in the Tokyo Dome when the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners combined for seven homers in their brief two-game set. It continued stateside opening day with 48 long balls. Through Monday's action, MLB is on a pace to blast 6,372 long balls, shattering 2017's record 6,105 home runs.
There are three primary elements influencing the number of balls leaving the yard:
Fly ball percentage
Contact rate
Fly ball distance
The first two are straightforward. The more fly balls struck, the greater the opportunity for a home run. The third, fly ball distance, correlates
There is a fourth factor, but it's out of the batter's control. Over the sample of the season, the effect likely balances out year-to-year. However, it can impact individual hitters and is the primary reason the above correlation isn't close to 1.0. The factor can be thought of as luck, though it could be fairer to consider it happenstance.
Examples are weather conditions, venue and direction of the batted ball. Weather encompasses temperature, humidity and wind direction. A ball can be struck in the exact same manner in the same venue. One day it lands in the seats while another it nestles in leather.
Aspects connected with venue include altitude, dimensions and height of fences. Some parks have outfield quirks greatly affecting the direction of the batted ball. Perhaps the most obvious example is right field in Fenway Park where batters can almost reach out and touch the Pesky Pole. However, if they hit the ball just a few degrees to the left, they're contending with the deepest right field in the league.
Here is a table displaying the first three elements since 2019. Two different sources of fly ball percent are included since this is still a subjective classification, though soon it will be determined more objectively as Statcast data is further refined.
* HR%: Home run per plate appearance
FBDst (feet): Average fly ball distance in feet
FB% (BIS): Baseball Info Solutions Fly Ball percent
FB% (TruM): TruMedia Fly Ball percent
K%: Strikeout per plate appearance
The only league-wide factor tempering homers is contact. Batters and pitchers each have a role. There's less shame when striking out in today's game as more hitters swing for the fences. On the other side, pitchers are throwing harder than ever. Increased velocity results in more whiffs but it also contributes to longer average fly ball distance.
The increase in the number of fly balls coincides with the launch angle revolution where more batters are consciously altering their swing plane. The uppercut swing is effective on two levels. Obviously, if the direction of the swing is upwards and solid contact is made, the ball will leave the bat in an elevated manner, Additionally, since the flight of pitches is downward, making contact with a swing matching the direction as closely as possible transfers maximum energy and momentum, increasing exit velocity.
Some of the swelling of fly ball distance can be attributed to growing exit velocity along with faster pitches. However, in 2017, there was growth beyond those influences as the ball was scientifically shown to carry more.
Early in 2019, the fly ball distance is incurring another spike, rendered even more curious since the external factor of colder April temperatures should hinder the travel. The obvious explanation is the ball is again juiced. Sure enough, a study published on Baseball Prospectus suggests the ball is again experiencing less drag, which can add 5 to 10 feet on well-hit fly balls.
The author, Robert Arthur, cautions the study was conducted on just one week's worth of data. However, he also notes the results show less drag than any balls studied from last season and are in fact, comparable to 2017. That said, Arthur warns there is a good deal of variance from samples studied week to week as batches can meet manufacturers specifications but still travel slightly differently.
Scientifically speaking, contending the ball is juiced is conjecture. It only might be juiced. But, as fantasy baseball players, that's more than enough to act.
There are a few means to take advantage such as avoiding pitchers most susceptible to the increase in fly ball distance while acquiring those less vulnerable. Another will be the focus of the rest of this discussion, unearthing batters in the best position to benefit from a ball subjected to less wind resistance.
The target group will meet the following criteria:
Above 40 percent fly ball rate (Fangraphs)
Below 25 percent strikeout rate
Average 2017 fly ball distance between 315 and 329 feet
The optimal average fly ball distance was determined by finding the range where adding 5 to 10 feet would be most beneficial. It's not exact, but it comes out to about one more homer per additional foot of average flight.
Here are 16 batters in the best position to prosper if the ball is indeed juiced, listed in order of 2017 average fly ball distance. They all make great trade targets, although that's often admittedly easier said than done. Even so, just having a better feel for where your team is situated in homers and RBIs facilitates managing your team on a daily or weekly basis.
Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Pederson already has seven homers. There's a chance he could be available from someone looking to sell high. This is one of those circumstances where buying high could pay off.
Yasmani Grandal, C, Milwaukee Brewers: Not only will Grandal be a beneficiary of the juiced ball, he also stands to gain considerably from hitting in Miller Park, a venue better for homers than Coors Field.
Alex Bregman, 3B/SS, Houston Astros: Good luck wresting Bregman away from another club. It will likely require dealing an ace to a pitching-starved team. From a game theory perspective, it's better to be on the hitting side of a deal like this as it's usually easier to backfill the lost arm than the bat.
Eddie Rosario, OF, Minnesota Twins: Rosario is off to a good start, but he's not putting up "off limits" numbers. As the weather warms, so should his stick.
Carlos Santana, 1B, Cleveland Indians: Santana's batting average and on-base mark are outstanding; however, his power is lacking early. He's the type of player you can play coy, making it appear as if you're chasing the average, but anticipate the impending power surge. Aiding this is that Progressive Field is a latent source of left-handed power, benefiting the veteran switch-hitter.
Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: Polanco is rehabbing his shoulder, with the intent of a late-April, early-May debut. With the caveat his power may be slow to return after major surgery last September, Polanco could be a sage stash if his injury has him available for pick-up or a patient hold for those drafting the fly-chaser in the spring.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Seattle Mariners: Like seemingly everyone in the Pacific Northwest, Encarnacion is off to a solid start but could be another buy-high candidate.
Brian Dozier, 2B, Washington Nationals: Dozier is the first prototypical buy-low option. It's a risk, as Dozier was showing signs of decline last season and his plate skills have been terrible so far this season. However, if you're scrambling to replace middle infielders such as Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Scooter Gennett, Rougned Odor or Jed Lowrie, Dozier is a chance worth taking.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B/OF, Philadelphia Phillies: Hoskins will also be extremely difficult to acquire, but if you're fortunate enough to have him on your roster, there's a good chance of the slugger posting his first 40-homer campaign.
Justin Turner, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers: Turner is one of the poster boys for the launch-angle revolution, though the power has yet to manifest yet this season. That, along with his injury history, could be enough to pry him off his current fantasy roster.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals: It's not like another reason to like Rendon is needed, but he's a good bet to eclipse 30 long balls for this first time ever.
Enrique Hernandez, 2B/SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: Usually situated on the weak side of a platoon, Hernandez is the Dodgers regular second baseman and is taking advantage. It'll take a great sell job, but mentioning the possibility he cools down and loses playing time could work.
Jay Bruce, 1B/OF, Seattle Mariners: Seven homers is obviously nice, but an average below Mario Mendoza's playing weight is a concern, perhaps sufficient enough to make him available in a trade.
Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins: Like his teammate Rosario, Kepler is off to a good, but not scorching, start. The Twins' offense should be one of the more productive units, feasting off several weak AL Central rotations and bullpens.
Mike Moustakas, 2B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers: Like Bruce, Moustakas is hitting for power but not average. It may be a harder sell since the perception is Moustakas is more likely to get the average up, but it never hurts to ask.
Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners: You'll need a deep bench or unlimited IL spots, especially since Seager isn't close to returning. That said, he profiles to provide some pop, provided he fully recovers from March hand surgery and doesn't lose power from that.
A handful missed the cut due to a strikeout rate over 25 percent. Still, meeting two out of three warrants attention, so keep the following batters in mind, especially if they exhibit improved contact: Greg Bird, Paul DeJong, Gleyber Torres, Jeimer Candelario, Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk, Yoan Moncada and Mike Zunino.