Nobody seemed to want Detroit Tigers closer Shane Greene in spring drafts and this was mainly because of that unsightly 5.12 number next to his 2018 ERA. Fair enough. However, did anyone notice the 2.66 figure next to his ERA the previous season? Greene is not Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen or Craig Kimbrel. I think we all acknowledge this. Then again, he is a proven big league relief pitcher. Saves are saves, and that trio of awesome right-handers has combined for seven of them so far, the same number as Greene, who set the MLB record for most in the first 10 games of a season. Saves are an opportunistic statistic as well as a skills-based one; then-Mariner Edwin Diaz was presented enough chances to save 57 games a season ago.
I doubt Greene approaches that number, in part because this season's Tigers are not likely to perform at the level of last year's Mariners over six months, but also because Greene is simply not as good as Diaz. He is, however, good enough to keep the closer role for six months, again, and save more than the 32 games he did last season. His 4.79 career ERA is misleading, just as his 2018 campaign was. Greene was average for five months, and then he sputtered in September, allowing five of his 12 season home runs and a 1.203 OPS, albeit with a .393 BABIP. I realize there are many numbers to digest here. I choose to look at the 32 saves -- that is why I draft closers, above all -- and believed Greene could keep the closer role in 2019.
So far, so good. Look, Greene is not this awesome, despite the fact he has permitted two measly singles in seven innings and appearances, with nary a run, and fanned six. Today could be a bad day for all we know. However, he is the closer. Joe Jimenez, popular closer-in-training and surprising 2018 AL All-Star because the Tigers had no alternative, is the setup man. This could change today or in a fortnight or, frankly, never, but there seems a clear hierarchy in place. Greene's 2017 season was also a bit misleading, as he did outperform his peripherals. His signature slider induced ground balls while still striking out more than a hitter per inning, though. I pegged an ERA in the 3.50 range for 2018. It wound up worse, but people forget skills are only a part of this game. Opportunity is a big one, too.
I have already seen Greene investors that added him from free agency last week trying to peddle him in trades, which is fine. Most of us think about it. I just find it hard to believe many fantasy managers will trade for Greene. It is two weeks of baseball. Players do not hit .455 for long, or save every one of their team's games and permit so few baserunners for long, too. Greene does not suddenly push his way into my top 10 for relief pitchers in fantasy -- but he does make my top 20. I always loved Todd Jones back in the day. The role is for Greene to keep. He probably knows what went awry last September, when a season 3.98 ERA -- still too high, but much better than 5.12 -- blew up as he allowed runs in seven of 10 September outings. Greene had no stretch of seven consecutive scoreless outings last season. He starts 2019 that way. I am optimistic he ends up with a 3.50 ERA and 38 saves.
Speaking of Jimenez, the fact that I believe Greene is safe in his role means Jimenez should be as well, and watch the holds accrue. Using holds as a fantasy statistic has become all the rage, and a mere 12 pitchers had more than the 23 holds Jimenez did in 2018. While I doubt the Tigers play .500 ball all season, because their starting pitching is overachieving, I think Jimenez could "hold" more than 30 leads.
Here are 10 others who are off the typical holds radar -- no Yankees, no Ryan Pressly, Archie Bradley or Jeurys Familia, for example, since they seem obvious to be among the leaders -- to watch in 2019.
Craig Stammen, San Diego Padres: The veteran right-hander already has six holds, leading the league, and closer Kirby Yates is so good. That is key; I do not see Stammen saving games because of Yates' excellence, so look for a potential 30 holds here.
Lou Trivino, Oakland Athletics: Same deal. Blake Treinen is awesome, Sunday appearance notwithstanding. Trivino should hold at least 25 leads, especially as he continues to push the clear setup role away from arrow-shooting Fernando Rodney.
Keone Kela, Pittsburgh Pirates: The theme continues. Felipe Vazquez is safe. The limited offense tends to score limited runs, not winning many games 8-2, so there are more holds/saves available. Kela is so good, too.
Adam Morgan, Philadelphia Phillies: He earned the manager's trust, as the right-handers around him sputtered so far, but he is not a one-out option. Morgan retires right-handers, too. The Phillies will share the saves, but Morgan is probably not getting many. Other lefties to watch include Tony Watson, Amir Garrett, Taylor Rogers and Scott Alexander.
Chaz Roe, Tampa Bay Rays: Only five pitchers had more holds a season ago, although I bet few know his name, and I see no reason to expect a statistical change now. I see Diego Castillo cashing in on the saves lefty Jose Alvarado does not get, and Roe piling on holds.
Ty Buttrey, Los Angeles Angels: This right-hander is probably better than closer Cody Allen, so there could be saves coming, but at least 25 holds as well. For those in leagues that count saves plus holds, you want a pitcher like Buttrey, who is next in line with a shaky closer. I suppose Jimenez is like that, and perhaps Kelvin Herrera in Chicago.
Alex Wilson, Milwaukee Brewers: I keep predicting Jeremy Jeffress comes off the injured list soon and usurps the closer role, sending awesome lefty Josh Hader to setup duties. Wilson is the next right-hander in line for the seventh and eighth inning for a good team.
Kyle Barraclough, Washington Nationals: Two weeks ago, I would have picked Trevor Rosenthal to be among the holds leaders, but that seems silly today, as he cannot find the strike zone. Barraclough is no Dennis Eckersley himself, but 20-plus holds seems likely. Heck, free agent Bud Norris could sign here today -- or with 10 other teams -- and get 20 holds, too.
Sam Dyson, San Francisco Giants: Dyson pitched effectively last season and should be more effective and durable setting up closer Will Smith than Mark Melancon.
Matt Festa, Seattle Mariners: Dark horse candidate could save games with the bullpen mess around him, and he has experience in the minors. For now, 20 holds.
Monday recap
Box scores
Highlights
• Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Seattle Mariners: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
• Rhys Hoskins, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
• Kevin Pillar, OF, San Francisco Giants: 1-for-4, HR, 4 RBI, SB
• Blake Snell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K
• Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland Athletics: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Lowlights
• Greg Bird, 1B, New York Yankees: 0-for-4, 4 K
• Travis Shaw, 2B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers: 0-for-4, 4 K
• Kyle Freeland, SP, Colorado Rockies: 5 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
• Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves: 5 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• Homer Bailey, SP, Kansas City Royals: 5 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Monday takeaways:
For the second time in his career, Edwin Encarnacion has homered twice in the same inning.
The only other players in MLB history to do that twice? Andre Dawson, Willie McCovey, Alex Rodríguez and Jeff King.
h/t @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/q2BPq9Q5Hv
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 9, 2019
• Encarnacion slipped well outside the top 100 in ESPN average live drafts, probably because he is 36 -- so much hate for older players! -- was peddled around the league this winter and his batting average dropped each of the past three seasons. However, he also has bashed 30 home runs in seven consecutive seasons and there is no reason to believe he will not make it eight. Did you know Encarnacion is third among active players in home runs with 384? Well, I find that stuff interesting. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are ahead of him, Nelson Cruz and -- surprise -- Curtis Granderson round out the top 5. Anyway, Encarnacion is not going to hit .324 all season, but 30 home runs are coming. The Mariners will not average eight runs a game all season. He and this offense do not get enough credit, though.
• Yes, the position next to Philly's Hoskins above says "OF" and not "1B." Why is that, he types in response to myriad tweets from ESPN fantasy managers not aware of the position eligibility rules that have literally been in place for more than a decade? The rule is 10 games in-season. The day after Hoskins plays his 10th game at first base, which should be Wednesday, you can move him from outfield to first base, if you so desire. Others will add eligibility soon as well, such as Mike Moustakas (at second base), Jose Peraza (also at 2B) and Yoan Moncada (at third base).
• Speaking of Moncada, he has one hit and five strikeouts over 14 PA in his past three games. Might have been a bit early for the Moncada victory laps. He is only 24 and capable of big statistics, but he did lead the majors with 217 strikeouts and pitchers tend to adapt when hitters figure things out. I still think Moncada is not likely to hit as high as .250 overall this season or provide the stolen bases he did in 2018, which is why I labeled Minnesota Twins infielder Jorge Polanco, still out there in half of ESPN's leagues, a far better value likely to provide similar, if not greater, stats.
• I spent $43 of my allotted $100 free agent money in the NL-LABR league (12 teams) on new Giant Kevin Pillar, and he made me smile on the very first night with a grand slam and a stolen base. Pillar is surely capable of 15 home runs and 15 steals. He has done this already. Some might view it silly to spend so much critical money that I might need later on one player after one week, but for years in this league I -- as writers on other sites noted -- hoarded my money waiting for the big July 31 acquisitions from the AL to the NL. I waited for J.D. Martinez, for example, but someone else in the league had more than $100 to spend and got him. (Long story; I would have won, but am not too bitter). Now I decided to change my tactics and be aggressive. Look, you can wait four months to spend the money, but then get two months of stats. I get nearly six months of Pillar stats. If my team remains healthy, I can contend.
Health report
• Cleveland Indians right-hander Mike Clevinger, one of 18 to fan at least 200 hitters last season and well on his way so far in 2019, might not get there as he is headed to the injured list with a back strain. Perhaps he misses only a start or two, but I doubt it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu strained his groin Monday and figures to miss the rest of the month. The Dodgers have depth, as always, but this means Julio Urias and Ross Stripling should keep rotation spots. Clayton Kershaw could pitch in the majors this month. Who knows?
W2W4:
• The defending champion Red Sox, off to a 3-8 start, play their home opener Tuesday and second baseman Dustin Pedroia is hitting seventh in the lineup, right behind Rafael Devers, who apparently lost his role as the No. 3 hitter. Sad face. Pedroia won many a fantasy championship for managers long ago, but figures to play sporadically at 35, and coming off years of knee woes. I would not start Toronto's Matt Shoemaker, one of the five qualifiers with a spotless ERA so far -- Clevinger is one of them -- at Fenway Park.
• The ESPN night game features Yankees right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga against Gerrit Cole. Facing the Astros in their place is hardly the wisest time to use a young hurler with limited experience, but watch Loaisiga get his strikeouts. There is upside here, and Luis Severino hardly appears on the road to recovery from shoulder woes, so there should be opportunity.