There will be people out there who believe New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez, who homered three times Sunday and has blasted six of them in his first eight games, indeed looks awesome, like the best fantasy catcher there is. Others will point out his Sunday work was against the Triple-A pitching staff of the Baltimore Orioles, and that Sanchez, in this ridiculously small sample size, has only two other base hits in his 36 plate appearances. Is this the 2017 version of Sanchez or should fantasy managers rush to sell high? Well, it could be both, I suppose, but I am leaning in one direction.
Trades always depend on the offer coming back to one's team, but Sanchez is not, at least in my opinion, safe. He can be great. The power is not under question, but his ability to make consistent contact and remain healthy certainly is. Sanchez hit .186 last season. Some of it was bad luck, as several indicators show he hit baseballs as hard as he did the prior season, and simply played under physical duress. That is a fair assessment. I would argue that all catchers are at significantly more risk than, say, outfielders due to the demands of the position. However, Sanchez is not likely to hit .299, as he did as a rookie.
The original Sanchez ESPN projection for this season showed 27 home runs, most among catchers, in 422 at-bats and a low .235 batting average, which does remove some of the joy from the power. Even now, Sanchez is not Cody Bellinger with some crazy batting average. He just managed to launch several baseballs over fences. Perhaps you could homer off Dan Straily, too. I can see Sanchez hitting 27 home runs, health permitting. I can see him hitting .235, too. The catching position is a wreck, even in one-catcher formats like ESPN standard setups. I love Minnesota Twins option Willians Astudillo, but he is not going to hit 27 home runs. Neither is San Diego's Francisco Mejia, the Dodgers' Austin Barnes or probably anyone else at the position. Still, if the offer is so good, one has to consider it, and in fantasy baseball, time is always running out to trade because value shifts daily.
While we are on the subject, I often remark that there are not 10 catchers to make up a top-10 ranking at the position. I would still take Philadelphia Phillies starter J.T. Realmuto over Sanchez, but nobody else. Chicago Cubs starter Willson Contreras looks rejuvenated for power after an odd 2018 campaign. That is the thing with catchers: We often do not know what physical malady they may be dealing with, so when the offense sputters, we wonder. Now Contreras looks awesome, and if he hits 18 home runs and tops Sanchez by 50 batting average points, you want Contreras. Astudillo will hit for average and double-digit power. If I can move Sanchez for another top-100 player, hitter or arm, and add Astudillo or Barnes, I do it.
Sunday recap
Box scores
Highlights
• Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees: 3-for-6, 3 HR, 6 RBI
• Daniel Vogelbach, 1B, Seattle Mariners: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
• Derek Dietrich, 1B/OF, Cincinnati Reds: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
• Mike Clevinger, SP, Cleveland Indians: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
• Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
Lowlights
• Eric Thames, 1B/OF, Milwaukee Brewers: 0-for-4, 3 K
• Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals: 0-for-4, 3 K
• Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets: 4 2/3 IP, 4 H, 7 ER, 7 BB, 2 K
• Ivan Nova, SP, Chicago White Sox: 2 1/3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Mike Fiers, SP, Oakland Athletics: 1 2/3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 2 K
Sunday takeaways
The Dodgers have scored 84 runs in their first 10 games, 3rd-most by any team in the past 100 seasons.
The only two teams with more (1932 Yankees, 1999 Indians) went on to score 1,000 runs. That Indians club is the only team in the expansion era to reach 1,000 runs. pic.twitter.com/HukkYlHiTM
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 8, 2019
• It is not just Bellinger, by the way. Yes, Bellinger has smashed seven home runs in 10 games and has 18 RBIs, and he has a stolen base as well. Bellinger rocked 39 home runs as a rookie and last season, despite playing in all 162 games (30 more than the previous season) he staggered to 25 blasts, though he made strides in walk and strikeout rate. Obviously, nobody is going to hit .455 for long, and Bellinger should return much in trade, if his managers are bold. I think he is worth keeping around, though, because 40 home runs is a possibility. Max Muncy, Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez each have three home runs, while shortstop Corey Seager at least looks healthy. Justin Turner looks healthy. We might never know from day to day what this lineup is, but the Dodgers are averaging more than eight runs per game. The Dodgers are far more likely than the Seattle Mariners to keep scoring at a similar rate.
• Minnesota Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco hit for the cycle in Philadelphia over the weekend, and he remains available in nearly half of ESPN's standard leagues. Polanco hit .256 with 13 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 2017, and was a popular sleeper to get even better the next season. Then came the 80-game PED suspension, but if one extrapolates the numbers over a full season, Polanco would have had better numbers. I like this Twins offense, and Polanco hits near the top of the lineup. Everyone sees Chicago White Sox infielder Yoan Moncada is off to an exceptional start, but Polanco, still out there in leagues, can do the same thing for homers and steals, and hit higher in average. Twins outfielder Max Kepler homered in each of the weekend games, and he seems a bit underrated in the fantasy world as well.
• The rage that Cincinnati Reds outfielder Yasiel Puig showed in reacting to Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Chris Archer throwing at Derek Dietrich, which precipitated a bench-clearing melee, is part of the reason to be wary of Puig in fantasy. He is so emotional, and we have seen it affect his performance and playing time. You know a suspension is coming from this incident. Puig can be a monster hitter, with power and modest speed, if he can be consistent. Was he in Los Angeles? Nope, not since he was a rookie, and I question him emerging into something different in Cincy as well. You might not want old Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, for example, but I think he hits more home runs and provides more fantasy value in 2019.
Health report
• Everyone watching Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN saw Colorado Rockies outfielder David Dahl grab for his oblique during a strikeout against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Here we go again! Dahl left the game and Raimel Tapia replaced him. Dahl, 25, has struggled to remain healthy, but because he plays half his games at Coors Field and boasts intriguing power -- and he used to steal bases -- we keep investing. Expect an injured list stint soon. Tapia should play regularly, which is something many fantasy managers have also wished for. The Rockies are already sans injured Ryan McMahon and Daniel Murphy, and Mark Reynolds is playing first base regularly. Of course he is.
• St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez is scheduled to throw off a mound this week, but even if his valuable shoulder cooperates, fantasy managers are guessing at his role. He probably is not a starter, with the potential for closing real depending on how Jordan Hicks performs. Regardless, I would avoid this situation in a 10-team mixed league. Invest in deeper ones, but it seems unlikely Martinez, so recently a top-20 fantasy starting pitcher, provides much value this season.
Closing time
• It is getting a bit annoying how whenever a closer struggles or a bullpen implodes -- see the Washington Nationals -- everyone presumes free agent Craig Kimbrel will simply fix everything. Yeah, I do not see that. He will not make Trevor Rosenthal throw strikes. I have no shares of Kimbrel and while I would consider adding and stashing him in a deep league, just in case, I still do not see him lowering his asking price anytime soon. He might not pitch this season. We joked about Kimbrel versus Detroit Tigers closer Shane Greene two months ago and nobody took it seriously; then we did so a month ago and now Greene has set the record for most saves over the first 10 days of a season. Who saves more games this season? More to come on Greene in Tuesday's Closer Report.
• After recommending Matt Barnes as the Boston Red Sox closer, it has become clear that manager Alex Cora might not agree. Barnes threw the seventh and eighth innings in Arizona Sunday, with a 1-0 lead and without incident, leaving Ryan Brasier -- both are right-handers -- to finish up. Cora is not talking about his plans for the ninth inning and I would not cut Barnes yet or drop someone important for Brasier, but be prepared for little clarity. Watch them re-sign Kimbrel and make all of this moot.
W2W4
• Masahiro Tanaka and Justin Verlander face off on ESPN Monday night, but these right-handers are rostered in all leagues. I drafted Astros infielder Tyler White in a key league and that has not gone so well, but we know he can hit. Tony Kemp hits, too. This appears to be an annoying platoon, but White is in the starting lineup Monday against the right-hander. Keep White around in case things change, because he has intriguing upside for power and Kemp does not.
• Check out ESPN+, where Washington's Anibal Sanchez and Philadelphia's Vincent Velasquez meet. Sanchez battled in his first start against the Phillies, but many fantasy managers moved on, presuming his shocking 2018 campaign was a fluke. The Phillies hit, but I would keep Sanchez around. Velasquez is a strikeout pitcher for sure, but inconsistent. Still, the Phillies score runs; Velasquez needs to pitch well to keep his rotation spot. The team certainly has options at Triple-A, and stop it with the Dallas Keuchel talk. Not happening.