One of the big mistakes people make going into a draft is having a plan that is too rigid. I see this all the time in questions I receive, stuff like "Is Round X too early to take player Y?" The answer, of course, is "it depends." A key to having a productive draft that starts you off on the right foot requires managing that tension between drafting for need and drafting for value.
I can't help you with need -- I'm not at your fantasy draft -- but as someone who does a lot of work with projections, I can assist with the latter. There's an old joke about two campers running from a bear. One camper asks his friend, "Do you really think you can outrun a bear?" His friend responds, "No, but I can run faster than you." When drafting for value, you don't want to just know how good a player is, but where your opponents are likely to draft the player.
To this end, I go into every draft in March with my cheat sheet, but I also pay attention to the biggest disagreement between ZiPS projections (with adjustments for expected playing time) and average draft position. Below are some of my overvalued/undervalued players in this year's fantasy drafts. If you're in one of my leagues, could you stop reading? Thanks.
On Thursday, we looked at the hitters. Today, it's the pitchers:
Overvalued
David Price, Boston Red Sox
ZiPS position rank: 13th | ADP position rank: 6th
Price will be absolutely fine in Boston, but you can't ignore that in a mixed league, there ought to be an AL penalty -- slightly tougher league and a full-time designated hitter. On top of that, there's also some defensive uncertainty in Boston with Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez both remaining employed as fielders. Going a whole round before Jacob deGrom or Corey Kluber, and two rounds before Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke and Chris Archer demands a bit more of a premium than Price's fantasy projections warrant.
Undervalued
Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants
ZiPS position rank: 7th | ADP position rank: 21st
For Cueto to go this low without something going wrong suggests that the worries about his performance in Kansas City are getting a little too much weight from drafters. The Giants have improved their outfield defensively by bringing in Denard Span and shifting Angel Pagan to left, and AT&T Park should keep Cueto's home run total to fewer than 20.
Overvalued
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
ZiPS position rank: 35th | ADP position rank: 24th
Simply put, No. 100 overall is too early to take a pitcher that has only once hit 150 innings and is coming off a season in which he started only four games in the majors. Sure, it was an ACL injury, not an elbow issue, but given that we've never seen Stroman throw 180 innings, it doesn't look like he'll spike a big strikeout total, and he pitches in a park that works against him in a division without any likely awful teams, a more conservative approach is in order. Stroman will be good, but you have to account for that risk.
Undervalued
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
ZiPS position rank: 8th | ADP position rank: 18th
Even in what was his worst season in years (relatively speaking), he finished 16th among pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater. The Mariners ought to be better in 2016 than in 2015, and where else are you going to find a more dependable pitcher? Have some respect for royalty.
Overvalued
Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers
ZiPS position rank: 47th | ADP position rank: 30th
While I think Zimmermann will have a better season with the Tigers, his raw numbers -- which is what you should care about -- take a hit going from Washington to Detroit. There's too much 2014 baked into the cake, as his peripheral numbers last year are actually more consistent with his career. Pitchers that ZiPS projects as better fantasy bets in 2016 who are going later in drafts include Francisco Liriano, Shelby Miller, Yordano Ventura and Michael Wacha.
Undervalued
Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins
ZiPS position rank: 28th | ADP position rank: 41st
Chen's peripherals were worse than his actual numbers in 2015, but a lot of this should be countered by simply playing in a friendlier park in Miami. If Chen can survive as well as he has in the AL East -- which, even if not the ultimate juggernaut division, has been home to some terrific offenses -- he can certainly manage the NL East, with two competitors battling for "Worst Team in Baseball" honors, and even the good teams being good for mainly non-offense reasons.
Overvalued
Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
ZiPS position rank: 4th | ADP position rank: 2rd
Two spots doesn't sound like a whole lot, but it's an overall rank of 86 vs. an overall ADP of 61 -- drafting a player two rounds too early can be a pretty big deal. Kimbrel remains a top closer who you'd be happy to have collecting saves for your fantasy club, but you also don't want to pay the 2012-2013 premium. He has come back to the rest of the top tier of closers, so there's less reason to target him early.
Undervalued
Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
ZiPS position rank: 10th | ADP position rank: 17th
One thing that ZiPS measures when doing these rankings is the marginal value of adding stats to a particular team's rankings, so it captures a lot more for a reliever than the saves. Even if Betances never gets a single save opportunity, he's just so good -- ZiPS projects him first among all relievers in ERA, third in strikeouts, and seventh in WHIP -- that he punches above his weight in his impact on the non-save categories.