After a tumultuous group stage, the semifinals of IEM Oakland begin on Saturday with SK facing Ninjas in Pyjamas and FaZe facing Cloud 9. Though one may look ahead to a battle of the titans in the finals between SK and FaZe, we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the other two semifinalists.
SK vs NiP
This is a rematch of the finals last year here in Oakland. NiP have steamrolled this tournament, but if anyone will derail this train, SK will. In fact, the only map NiP have lost in Oakland was a 13-16 Cobblestone game to the Brazilians. A tough loss at that, since NiP finished the first half with a decisive 11-4.
The biggest story for NiP at Oakland has been Fredrik "REZ" Sterner, who's been the highest rated player at the event with a 1.46 HLTV Rating after five maps.His teammate Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg is not far behind, sporting a 1.38 rating himself.
While NiP have the firepower to match SK at this tournament, its win condition lies in the map pool. The three best maps for the squad are Nuke, Overpass and Train, but unfortunately Nuke is SK's permaban, and we won't be seeing it here. Luckily, Overpass and Train are two of SK's favorite maps with this new lineup, and it's likely we'll see at least one of them here. Expect NiP to pick Train, SK to pick Cobblestone, and the decider to be Overpass.
Train has been an elusive pick for SK. The team looked great on it at EPICENTER, beating Virtus.pro twice and Astralis once. In Oakland, however, it got exposed by Cloud9 and lost handedly 16-7. The most valuable player of that map was Tyler "Skadoodle" Latham, who played a very aggressive and mobile AWP that burned SK repeatedly, both in the opening of the round during strategy execution. The X factor for NiP will be notoriously aggressive AWPer William draken Sundin, who will try to dominate SK in the same way. For NiP, the goal will be to unleash draken. For SK, discipline will be key.
Given the tight game we saw in the group-stage, Cobblestone is a scary choice for SK, but there doesn't seem to be a better map available. NiP will ban Mirage, SK don't like Cache, and Inferno has been very weak of late. The map favors SK, but the previous matchup and NiP's dominant T side half may get in SK's head and prevent it from playing it's style of Cobblestone -- the style that makes them one of the best teams in the world on that map.
Overpass will be a true barnburner. NiP dominated Cloud9 on CT side, consistently interrupting their executes with well-coordinated flanks. Despite a dominating performance by the Swedes, C9 often found a man-advantage in the opening of the round due to overly-aggressive play on the part of NiP. SK is a more diligent team than C9, and will leverage early kills to gain map control, which significantly reduce the speed of flanks on Overpass. NiP will have to strike a balance between aggression and safety: it will need aggression to flank bombsites, but it can't afford to give up the first kill every round. On the side of SK, discipline will once again be key. They are an extremely strong Overpass team, but they will need to survive NiP's CT side. Once they get on CT side themselves, I expect a dominant showing. Don't be surprised to see two 10-5 rounds here.
In the end, this should be a 2-1 in favor of SK. SK's Train looked very vulnerable in the group stage, but NiP will have to play its very best Counter-Strike to beat SK on Overpass. That said, SK will need to play with temperance; you cannot drop your guard against draken.
Cloud9 vs FaZe
A match that could be characterized as FaZe versus mini-FaZe. That characterization strikes me as unfair for Cloud 9, which have reached the semifinals here at Oakland not by leveraging its skill but by playing strong and versatile Counter-Strike.
FaZe are a terrifying team, but it's looked vulnerable of late. Though the team went 4-1 in the group stage, the pivotal Mirage loss was a catastrophic 16-3 at the hands of Gambit.
Mirage has been one of FaZe's three favorite maps: Overpass, Mirage and Inferno. Interestingly, C9 are more than willing to play those three maps. However, it has lost Overpass twice at Oakland, and I'd expect it banned first to avoid playing on what may be FaZe's best map. Expect C9 to pick Train, FaZe to pick Inferno, and the final map to be Mirage.
Train has been a dominant map for C9 at this tournament; it's beaten both SK and Astralis on it. FaZe have been less than impressive on it, having only played it three times, sporting a 1-2 record. However, FaZe must ban Cobble first, and thus C9 will have the pick open to them. Skadoodle has been consistently dominant on the map as a rotator, hovering between A and B much like device. Unexpected angles and great accuracy have made C9 a sight to behold on the CT side. That said, Jacky "stewie" Yip is notorious for his aggressive inner hold, and if anyone can punish a player seeking aim duels, its FaZe. Stewie may have to adjust and play further back, baiting for Skadoodle with the AWP. All things considered, so long as Skadoodle continues his reign of terror on Train, the first map should be a comfortable win for C9.
Inferno will be an interesting one. While C9 favored Inferno at this roster's inception, a 16-4 crushing loss on the map eliminated them from ELEAGUE Premier. Since then, they've only played it once against a Top 10 team (Liquid) who dominated them 16-3. Needless to say, confidence on Inferno has been shaken. On the other hand, FaZe is the best team in the world on Inferno. They've proven themselves able to play aggressively, trade effectively, master the rotation game, maintain Banana control, and use Ladislav "GuardiaN" Kovács as the most dangerous Inferno AWPer in the world. I'll be honest, it will take a miracle for C9 to pull out a win here.
Mirage is another dominant map for FaZe, and many will think that makes Finn "karrigan" Andersen's team the obvious candidate to take the map. While it is certainly great on the map, I favor Cloud 9 here. As C9 have displayed countless times, it has one of the most versatile and thorough Mirages in the world. FaZe lost 16-3 to Gambit on Mirage at this tournament with Gambit, which punished its aggression. C9 play a default-heavy T side, one of the best at finding kills in Middle. More so on Mirage than any other map, C9 are both structured and versatile. It can opt into fast splits, full-on executes, or slow defaults, and it rarely gets caught off guard. Such comfort will really test FaZe; early-round aggression will be shut down. It'll have to find another dimension to their game on CT side.
However, there will be trouble for C9 if it doesn't perform excellently on the T side. Cloud9 has been exploited on the CT side for aggressive CT setups. Great aimers can tear up its A site defense, especially if RUSH decides to play around balcony. Skadoodle, who often plays triple-stack, will have to show up in a big way of the CT side for C9 to withstand FaZe's A executes. That being said, C9 have got the chops to beat FaZe on Mirage, so long as it doesn't get rattled by any hardships it may face in the series.