Week 16 kicks off with perhaps the biggest game of the NFL season to date, as the Los Angeles Rams visit the Seattle Seahawks on "Thursday Night Football" in a matchup of Super Bowl contenders.
Both teams are 11-3, with the Rams ahead in the NFC West by virtue of their 21-19 win over the Seahawks in Week 11.
Los Angeles has already clinched a playoff berth and currently is the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Seattle can clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie Thursday or a Detroit Lions loss or tie Sunday.
The Rams are coming off a comeback win over the Lions, and the Seahawks slipped by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15 for their fourth straight win.
Los Angeles is the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +320, and Seattle is the second choice at +650.
The Rams opened as 1.5-point road favorites, but the line has shifted to Seahawks -1.5 for Thursday's tilt.
Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop bets, DFS plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
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Game picks
Total points UNDER 43.5 (alt line, -138)
Maldonado: Yeah, -138 hurts, but that's the cost of insulation; 43.5 is the right side of this number. This game profiles clean, controlled and annoyingly slow, the kind where every drive feels like work and points have to be earned. Both defenses limit efficiency, both offenses are comfortable bleeding clock and neither side needs to play fast to win. The most likely outcomes live in that 38-42 range, and the extra half point protects against the late field goal nonsense that always shows up on prime time. I'll pay for the cushion.
Notable player props, bets
Sam Darnold 230+ passing yards (+102)
Bowen: Darnold has thrown for 244 or more yards in four of his past five games, which includes the 279 yards he posted versus the Rams defense in their Week 11 head-to-head matchup.
Darnold UNDER 30.5 pass attempts (-108)
Walder: The Rams defense does not feel obligated to match heavy offensive personnel with their base defense the way the Seahawks are used to. When the Seahawks run 12 personnel, 73% of the time their opponents have countered that with base this year (per NFL Next Gen Stats). But when the Rams defense sees 12 personnel, they deploy base only 46% of the time. It's a similar story for 21 personnel; the Seahawks normally face base 92% of the time, but the Rams only use base 60% of the time against it. The effect here is that the Rams are inviting the run in these circumstances, and so our expectation should be that the Seahawks will pass less often than they otherwise might.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD scorer (+115)
Moody: Smith-Njigba leads the Seahawks with 130 targets and, unsurprisingly, also leads the team in touchdowns with nine, including four over his past four games. Seattle would be wise to lean on the passing game, as the Rams' defensive front ranks second in run stop win rate. It's also worth noting that Los Angeles has allowed a league-high eight receiving touchdowns to wide receivers over the past four weeks.
AJ Barner 4+ receptions (-120)
Solak: When opposing defenses have good plans for Smith-Njigba, Barner is the player Darnold turns to. This is doubly true when Darnold wants to get rid of the ball fast, as he will against a Rams pass rush that has haunted him over the last two seasons. Barner is the quick-release, safety-valve option for a Seahawks offense that will look to get Darnold into a rhythm early with quick, quiet completions.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Puka Nacua ($18,000) has topped the 165-yard receiving mark in back-to-back games, and he caught seven passes for 75 yards in the head-to-head with the Seattle defense in Week 11. Bet on the consistent usage with Nacua, who could see a volume bump if Davante Adams (hamstring) can't go.
Also in my lineup: Blake Corum ($7,200) has seen double-digit carries in back-to-back games and has scored at least one touchdown in three straight. Plus, he has more short-area juice and lateral ability than starter Kyren Williams. Good value here in the lineup.
Maldonado's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Puka Nacua ($18,000). The potential absence of Adams funnels volume toward Nacua, and Sean McVay will manufacture touches even if Seattle clamps down. Nacua's target share spikes without needing explosives, and he can still break one. In a slower game, reliable volume plus red-zone usage makes him the safest ceiling captain.
Also in my lineup: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($11,600). Seattle's offense runs through JSN. He has elite yards per route, a massive target share and is game-script proof. Even if the Seahawks stall, JSN still piles up catches. You're betting on usage, not touchdowns, which matters in an under-style game.
Moody's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Puka Nacua ($18,000) has played in just 13 games but ranks second in the league in both receptions (102) and receiving yards (1,367). He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in two consecutive games. The Seahawks defense has been stingy against wide receivers, but Nacua isn't your average wideout, and his rapport with quarterback Matthew Stafford is superb.
Also in my lineup: Colby Parkinson ($5,400) has been one of the better fantasy tight ends in recent weeks and posted a season-high 24.5 fantasy points against the Lions in Week 15. He has at least 12 fantasy points in four of his past six games. With Adams week-to-week due to a hamstring injury, Parkinson could prosper against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Solak's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Blake Corum ($7200). I don't like playing captains off the beaten path, but the ownership on Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at captain will be so siloed that pursuing contrarian plays does feel like the path to a big ship on Thursday night. Corum should not be half as expensive as Kyren Williams, as their timeshare can become truly 50/50 depending on the matchup. Williams did most of his scoring in the first matchup on two explosive runs. Imagine if those runs go to Corum this time.
Also in my lineup: Terrance Ferguson ($2,400) saw his highest snap participation (78%) of the season last week against the Detroit Lions. He is sixth among all players in air yards per target at 18.7, and he has three end zone targets on the year. Imagine if a couple of Davante Adams' 27 vacated end zone targets go his way. The ceiling potential is extremely high.
Walder's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Blake Corum ($7,200). That effect I talked about in my Darnold attempts prop analysis, where the Rams will play a lighter defensive personnel than their offensive counterpart? It's even more extreme for Seattle's defense. Therefore, I like a Rams running back's chances to be the right captain play. Certainly I would prefer Kyren Williams here in a vacuum, but the cost difference between him and Corum is large enough that I'll go with the discount option.
Also in my lineup: Kyren Williams ($9,800). The benefit of making Corum my captain is that it's easier to squeeze in Williams, too. While they do cannibalize one another's opportunities, having both opens the door for a lineup with a great outcome in a Rams blowout scenario.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Rams and Seahawks are both 10-4 against the spread this season, tied for the best mark in the league.
The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS as home underdogs under Mike Macdonald.
The Rams are 10-3 ATS against the Seahawks since 2019.
The Rams are 12-2 ATS as road favorites since 2022, 9-1 ATS since 2024 and 5-1 ATS this season.