ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice. If you have one of the 2.8% of remaining entries, give yourself a pat on the back.
With just five weeks remaining, there are two competing motivations: maximizing win probability while also optimizing the chance that you are the only entry alive at the end. This week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are trending to be nearly 50% selected as of Wednesday morning. That means fading them creates a big opportunity, especially in larger pools. Against hundreds of opponents, the chance to wipe out half the field is worth it. In small groups, you may have opportunities down the road to fade the chalk and win your group.
The biggest question is, who do you pivot to? The market is opting for the 3-9 Cleveland Browns, who also will have double-digit selection hosting the 1-11 Tennessee Titans. If you have somehow made it this far without using the Denver Broncos or Green Bay Packers, pick one of those teams. If not, your choice becomes personal preference. If you are looking to just survive, the Buccaneers give you the best chance to win all 18 weeks. If you are willing to roll the dice and try to win your group outright, then hoping Tampa Bay lays an egg is optimal strategy.
Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet
1. Denver Broncos (at Las Vegas Raiders)
The Broncos are the biggest favorites this week according to Mike Clay, and it's by far their biggest favored role the rest of the season. Most of the field has already used the Broncos, but if available, they are the clear picks as large favorites, with low selection and little future value.
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 69% (second)
Mike Clay chance to win: 86% (first)
DraftKings line: Broncos -7.5 (-410 money line)
Eliminator Challenge: 6% selected (fifth)
2. Green Bay Packers (vs. Chicago Bears)
The Bears are currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, though ESPN Analytics has them as the 18th-best team in the NFL, compared to the third-ranked Packers. The Bears pulled off an upset as similar road favorites in Philadelphia last week, but since 2010, 6-point road underdogs coming off a road upset of at least six points are 1-27. The Packers are also 11-1 against the Bears under Matt LaFleur. At miniscule selection, the Packers are a strong play if available, even if there is slightly more risk than the Buccaneers.
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 68% (third)
Mike Clay chance to win: 69% (sixth)
DraftKings line: Packers -6.5 (-310 money line)
Eliminator Challenge: 1% selected (10th)
3. Seattle Seahawks (at Atlanta Falcons)
While both Clay's and ESPN Analytics' models are slightly lower on Seattle this week than the betting market, the Seahawks are still 7-point favorites against a Falcons team that is 1-6 in their past seven games, including losses to the Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers and New York Jets. The Seahawks have only one more usable game (Week 17 at Carolina), so they have minimal future value. Very few people have Seattle left, but, like the Broncos, this is the week to use them if you do.
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 62% (ninth)
Mike Clay chance to win: 65% (eighth)
DraftKings line: Seahawks -7 (-380 money line)
Eliminator Challenge: 4% selected (sixth)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. New Orleans Saints)
This is the Buccaneers' easiest remaining game of the season, and they are the biggest favorites according to both DraftKings and ESPN Analytics. Typically, that is what you are looking for. However, their selection here could be prohibitive. Tampa Bay has potentially usable games in Week 15 (Atlanta Falcons) and Week 18 (Panthers) at home, so they have a little bit of future value if you opt to pivot elsewhere. It's purely a game theory decision when it comes to when you pick Tampa Bay.
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 74% (first)
Mike Clay chance to win: 71% (fourth)
DraftKings line: Buccaneers -8.5 (-440 money line)
Eliminator Challenge: 47% selected (first)
5. Cleveland Browns (vs. Tennessee Titans)
Picking a 3-9 team as the second-most popular selection certainly involves some risk, but Mike Clay's model actually has the Browns as bigger favorites than the Buccaneers, thanks to their top-5 defense. The Browns' offense is a mess, but so is Tennessee's. It's the lowest over/under of the season, so this could be a sweat, but the Titans are 1-17 in their past 18 games, with the only win requiring several miracles against the Arizona Cardinals. The Browns won't be favored again the rest of the season, so they have zero future value.
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 52% (13th)
Mike Clay chance to win: 72% (fourth)
DraftKings line: Browns -3.5 (-198 money line)
Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected (second)
6. Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona Cardinals)
The Rams are another big favorite who have been used by most entries but are a strong pick if available. Sean McVay has dominated the Cardinals in his career, going 14-3 outright and 13-4 against the spread. The only issue with the Rams is that as the Super Bowl favorites, they have several more viable weeks, including Week 17 (at Falcons), Week 18 (Cardinals) and even next week (Detroit Lions), so map out your remaining schedule if you want to use them.
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 66% (fifth)
Mike Clay chance to win: 77% (second)
DraftKings line: Rams -7.5 (-425 money line)
Eliminator Challenge: 8% selected (fourth)
Other options:
Dolphins (at Jets)