Week 10 of college football feels less like picking sides and more like picking rhythms. Some teams are dancing to precision, others tripping over their own tempo. The trick? Find the ones still in sync when the music speeds up.
At this point, we have some consistency, so I'm laying trust with those teams.
All odds by ESPN BET
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at San Jose State Spartans
Pick: Hawai'i +110
Hawai'i's hitting its stride, and the market hasn't caught up. Coverage and efficiency define this edge.
Defensively, the Rainbow Warriors are 26th in passing coverage; San Jose State sits in the bottom five. That's a massive gap in a game where both teams want to throw. Quarterback Micah Alejado has been sharp, throwing nearly 1,200 yards, completing 68% of passes with 10 total scores over his last three games, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt. Against a defense that's missed tackles and allowed explosive plays, that's a mismatch worth backing.
Offensively, Hawai'i's finishing drives instead of stalling. The unit's balanced, confident, and capitalizing on momentum. San Jose State's moving the ball but not finishing, and yardage without points isn't valuable.
Give me the team tackling better, protecting the ball and closing possessions with touchdowns. Hawai'i's cleaner, sharper, and more efficient. I'll skip the +2.5 and take the +110 outright.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at NC State Wolfpack
Pick: Georgia Tech -5.5
Georgia Tech has been one of the most efficient teams in the country: We're talking top 15 in both yards per play and points per play, the definition of clean football.
While NC State runs more plays per game, the Wolfpack's efficiency has dipped over their last three outings, showing a clear downward trend. Georgia Tech keeps the chains moving without forcing the issue, producing at a higher rate on fewer snaps, which is exactly the profile you want from a road favorite.
Then there's the second-half dominance. Georgia Tech may keep things interesting in the first half but whatever happens in the locker room at the half is working. The Yellow Jackets are 13th in second-half scoring. NC State, on the other hand, has been outscored in the second half, averaging only 12 points. When games tighten, Georgia Tech elevates while NC State fades.
That closing ability has carried the Yellow Jackets through eight straight wins, all by at least seven points. Efficient, consistent and strong after halftime. Georgia Tech finishes the game, and that's the difference between good teams and ones you can trust to cover. Back the Jackets.
Oregon State Beavers versus Washington State Cougars
Pick: Oregon State +4.5
Washington State's defense can't tackle, as they are ranked near the bottom in both tackling grade and rush defense. That's a bad formula when you're walking into Corvallis to face a team that wants to pound the ball 40 times. Oregon State has already gone through a gauntlet schedule: Texas Tech, Oregon and Wake Forest, all three top-12 defenses in touchdowns allowed. That's why the Beavers look worse on paper than they actually are.
Washington State doesn't move fast enough to build separation and their drives stall when the run game disappears. Oregon State's defense is quietly top-25 in success rate and can make this ugly in all the right ways. The Beavers run more plays, sustain longer drives and should have the edge in red-zone volume.
I like Oregon State to out-physical Wazzou, lean on RB Anthony Hankerson, win the early downs and steal one outright in front of the home crowd.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State Wildcats
Pick: Texas Tech -6.5 (-130)
The line opened Tech -7, ticked up to 7.5, and we're paying extra juice on 6.5. Worth it. Behren Morton's back from injury, and that alone elevates Texas Tech's ceiling. The Red Raiders sustained top 15 in plays per game and points per play even with Morton sidelined. His return restores tempo and balance, the core of what makes it so hard to keep pace with Tech .
Then there's the trench gap. Texas Tech has the best run defense in the country and the third-best pass rush, generating the fifth-most sacks and the most total pressures by a wide margin. Kansas State, meanwhile, bottom tier, 89th against the run and 108th in pressure rate. That's where this flips.
Avery Johnson completes 68% of his passes when clean, but just 42% under pressure. Against this front, he'll be running for his life while Tech attacks from every angle. Tech's defense contains dual-threat QBs because they win inside and off the edge. Johnson's legs keep him alive, not ahead and against this unit, survival won't be enough.
Texas Tech is faster, deeper and better in both trenches. The number reflects it, and Morton's return stretches the gap. K-State's resurgence acknowledged. Supremacy unchanged.
If you can grab -7 at -110, take it.
Wake Forest at Florida State
Pick: Wake Forest +9.5
The line opened at +7.5 and is now +9.5 -- and that's a full two points of breathing room on a Wake Forest team that's been built to make you uncomfortable if you're laying points. The two things that stand out most are how Wake handles pressure and how it limits red zone damage. They're a top-10 pass rush unit and one of the best in the country at holding opponents to field goals instead of touchdowns once they get inside the 20. That combination travels.
Florida State's talent is there, we saw it Week 1 in an upset win over Alabama but we haven't seen it since. The Noles move the ball, sure, but that production keeps stalling. The efficiency has cratered over the last month, and their defense has been giving up way too many clean pockets for a team priced as a double-digit favorite.
This is a number grab, but it's also a trust play, trusting Wake's discipline against a team that keeps playing tight football games. Wake's defense keeps the Seminoles kicking instead of finishing drives, they've got every chance to make this one sweaty for Florida State late and to pull the upset.